Counterattack starts with controlling probability

However, although Ji Shuqiang has strong skills, no one can remain invincible forever in the capital market.

One afternoon, Ji Shuqiang's team was conducting daily transactions in an orderly manner.

Their AI system is still monitoring market sentiment in real time, and short-term arbitrage operations are still progressing steadily.

"The data model shows that there is capital trying to push up a technology stock. The trend is clear, so we should go long on it," a member of the team reported.

Ji Shuqiang glanced at the screen and decisively ordered: "Let's chase in, follow the flow of funds, and test the waters with a small position."

After this order was issued, funds quickly entered the market and technology stocks began to rise steadily.

But in less than half an hour, the market trend suddenly changed and the price of that stock began to fluctuate violently.

"What's going on? Unusual fund movements?" Ji Shuqiang frowned and stared at the screen, trying to find anything unusual.

"There's a huge sell order coming down!" exclaimed the team members.

Ji Shuqiang's heart sank, and he immediately ordered: "Retreat, reduce positions! Quickly!"

But the market's reaction was half a beat faster than their decision.

In just a few minutes, the stock price plummeted from a high level, the stop-loss line was quickly touched, and the numbers in the account shrank visibly.

"The system made a misjudgment and misjudged the reverse fluctuation of market sentiment!" a member whispered, his face pale.

At this moment, the air in the conference room seemed to freeze. Ji Shuqiang stared at the rapidly falling K-line, clenching his fists.

His reason told him that the market itself is unpredictable, and no matter how powerful AI is, it cannot control all variables.

"This is the market... There is never a chance to breathe or regret..." He muttered to himself, his eyes a little tired.

Afterwards, Li Hao quickly received a report on Ji Shuqiang's team's failure.

He did not show too much blame, but personally talked to Ji Shuqiang.

"Please sit down." Li Hao invited Ji Shuqiang to his office with a gentle and calm tone.

Ji Shuqiang sat down, head lowered, and was obviously a little depressed. "Brother Hao, it was my misjudgment. The AI ​​model failed to identify the false signals in the market, resulting in a loss of several million."

Li Hao picked up the cup, took a sip, and said calmly, "You know what? In the capital market, losing money is normal, and making money is abnormal."

Ji Shuqiang was stunned for a moment and looked up at Li Hao.

Li Hao continued, "No matter how advanced the technology or how accurate the model, it can only predict market probabilities, not absolute outcomes. The market is essentially a psychological game. What you grasp is only superficial. The real decision makers and the underlying movements of market capital are often far more complex than the data itself."

He paused and looked at Ji Shuqiang with deep eyes: "So, this defeat is not a big deal. What's important is what you can learn from it."

Ji Shuqiang was silent for a moment, pursed his lips, and finally spoke: "I relied too much on the model and ignored the irrationality and suddenness of the market itself. I will readjust the model and add risk control mechanisms to prevent a single signal from misleading decision-making."

Li Hao nodded and smiled with satisfaction. "The capital market is not a laboratory, not a place where you can guarantee profits by simply applying a formula. Remember, technology is just a tool; the real decision-making is always in your hands."

Ji Shuqiang took a deep breath, his eyes becoming firm again: "Thank you, Brother Hao, I understand. This loss is the tuition I have to pay, but next time, I will definitely do better."

After that day, Ji Shuqiang did not become devastated as others imagined.

He quickly called a team meeting, analyzed the failure from beginning to end, and pointed out the problems without mercy.

"Our AI system performs well when powered by a single data signal, but it relies too much on short-term market sentiment and fails to capture timely signals of opposing capital flows. Next, we will incorporate more dimensional data into the system, such as the movements of major capital, historical reversal patterns, and the impact of sudden market news."

Ji Shuqiang stood in the conference room, his expression calm and determined.

The team members nodded one after another, their fighting spirit rekindled.

In the following weeks, Ji Shuqiang not only stepped up the optimization of the AI ​​model, but also designed an early warning mechanism for real-time monitoring of financial risks, greatly improving the stability of the system.

One day, Chen Kai was chatting with Li Hao late at night. He heard that Ji Shuqiang and his team were working overtime late at night, so he couldn't help but send him a message: "Xiao Ji, what new things are you working on today?"

Ji Shuqiang raised his head, smiled, and replied, "Brother Kai, this time we have to make a 'filter' that can identify false signals. We can't let the market fool us so easily anymore."

Chen Kai immediately responded, "That's how the capital market works. No one can claim to be an expert without being 'educated' by the market. This loss is a necessary step in your growth."

A small defeat quickly brought Ji Shuqiang back to reality from the peak of pride.

He finally understood that there is no so-called invincible general in the capital market, nor is there a permanent technical solution.

The market is alive, and technology can only help you see the general trend, but the real victory or defeat always depends on people's own decision-making and response.

During his time in Berkeley, Li Hao's pace of life gradually stabilized.

His doctoral research was on the right track, the topic became increasingly in-depth, and his daily academic discussions became more fulfilling.

He is no longer fighting alone.

Liu Xia’s company has always been the warmest presence for Li Hao.

Her smile, her timely encouragement, and even the occasional jokes, all allowed Li Hao's tense nerves to relax for a moment.

"Brother Hao, what do you want to eat tonight? I'll place the order."

"Whatever, just keep it simple."

"Are you sure? If it's simple, we might just have burgers again."

Li Hao smiled helplessly and said, "How about you make some for me?"

Liu Xia raised her eyebrows: "Shouldn't you take care of me?"

"Okay, okay." Li Hao shook his head and sighed, "I accept it."

In addition to Liu Xia's warm presence, Ji Shuqiang's performance also made Li Hao feel very gratified.

With his extraordinary strength and perseverance, this technical genius gradually emerged in the New Star Investment Team.

Not only did he gain a firm foothold in the technology circle of the United States, he also provided Li Hao with a large amount of valuable data and cutting-edge technical references.

Li Hao's research paper was originally just a hypothesis combining theory with market models, but with the support of real-time data provided by Ji Shuqiang and the continuously iterative AI model, the content of the paper has become more profound and convincing.

One evening, Li Hao and Ji Shuqiang were communicating in a video conference.

"Brother Hao, the latest optimized version of the model has been released. I have sent the results to your email." Ji Shuqiang's voice was filled with excitement.

Li Hao nodded, his eyes fixed on the screen. "Very good! This data is crucial and will significantly enhance the credibility of my research. I'll also need to optimize the risk warning function to eliminate false signals from extreme markets."

Ji Shuqiang replied firmly: "Don't worry, I'm debugging it these days, and the real market feedback will be incorporated into the model more quickly."

After hanging up the phone, Li Hao felt a sense of peace of mind. This wasn't just support for scientific research; it felt like a new force. Ji Shuqiang's "new force" was like a sharp sword, ready to shatter technological and market barriers.

However, life never goes too smoothly.

Just when everything seemed to be going smoothly and Li Hao was concentrating on academic research, an unexpected black swan arrived quietly.

On this day, Li Hao had just returned to the apartment from the laboratory and was preparing to have dinner with Liu Xia.

Liu Xia was sitting on the sofa, scrolling through the news on her phone. Her brows suddenly furrowed, and her expression grew grave.

"Brother Hao, please read the news..."

Liu Xia's voice trembled as she handed over the phone.

Li Hao took the phone and saw a breaking news on the screen - the global financial market was shaken, a well-known financial institution was exposed to problems due to a liquidity crisis, causing panic to spread in the market and a sharp drop in the stock market!

Li Hao's expression changed slightly, and he quickly flipped through more related news.

Red numbers in major capital markets around the world filled almost all trading screens, and panicked words appeared in the headlines of various financial media: "plunge," "crisis," "liquidity exhaustion," "sell-off wave"...

What made Li Hao even more nervous was that some of the holdings of Xinxing Zhitou were also affected by this storm and faced huge floating losses.

"Why did it suddenly become like this?" Liu Xia couldn't help but whisper, "This isn't what we expected. Wasn't market sentiment relatively stable before?"

Li Hao calmly put his phone down, his eyes penetrating. "This is a black swan event. It appears without warning, but once it erupts, it triggers a chain reaction, disrupting the entire market."

Liu Xia looked at him and asked, "What should we do now? Will it affect New Star Investment?"

Li Hao gently rubbed his temples, his eyes determined as he spoke, "At times like this, the most important thing is to remain calm. Market panic will exacerbate volatility, but if our model can remain stable, we may still have a chance."

He quickly dialed Ji Shuqiang's number.

"Ji Shuqiang, have you seen the market situation?"

Ji Shuqiang on the other end of the phone had obviously just realized what was happening, and his voice was hurried: "Brother Hao, I just saw the news that the AI ​​sentiment analysis model has captured the extreme panic signals in the market, and the current sentiment value has deviated from the normal range."

Li Hao said solemnly, "Keep the model running, but be cautious. Eliminate high-risk operations, stabilize your positions first, and observe the next trend of the market."

Seeing that he looked calm, Liu Xia felt a little relieved, but she was still nervous inside.

At the same time, Li Hao knew that the impact behind this black swan event would definitely not be that simple.

The panic selling in the market is just the beginning. If the incident cannot be quickly controlled, the ensuing liquidity crisis, debt default, and financial chain breakdown may further escalate this round of storm.

He sat back at the table, turned on his computer, and contacted Professor Hall.

"Professor Hall, have you seen the market trends?"

In the video, Professor Hall's expression was serious. He pushed up his glasses and said, "I was just about to contact you, Li. This incident is not simple. It may appear to be a crisis affecting a single institution, but it is very likely that there are more complex funding chain issues hidden behind it. We must find the cause as soon as possible."

Li Hao nodded and said solemnly, "Professor, I will analyze the data as quickly as possible to identify the key points of market fluctuations. If it is truly caused by human factors, we must find a way to counter it."

After hanging up the video call, Li Hao turned to look at Liu Xia. His voice was calm but carried an invisible force: "It may be very busy next time, but don't worry, we can get through it."

Liu Xia nodded, her eyes firm: "I believe you, Brother Hao."