A Journey Through the Flames of War in the Republican Era

Song Hongfei, Wang Zhi, and Zhang Yi compiled and studied the long-term national policies of both sides, the strategic deployments and contingency measures of the Kwantung Army and the Fengtian Army that directly confronted each other before and after the incident, the respective response measures of the two armies, the main leaders of the two countries and armies, and the main planning and commanding officers, and other detailed intelligence materials.

Intelligence indicates that the Kwantung Army's coup was not ordered by the Japanese military or cabinet high command, but rather was an act of defiance launched by fanatical militaristic elements within the Kwantung Army as a result of their "subordinates overthrowing their superiors."

The Emperor, Cabinet, and high-ranking military officials of Japan were unaware of the Kwantung Army's actions on the night of the incident. Even the Kwantung Army Commander, Honjo Shigeru, was not entirely clear about the specific plans and deployments. It was not until the attack on Beidaying began that Honjo Shigeru received telegrams from Itagaki Seishiro and the Japanese military intelligence agency in Shenyang.

The direct planners and implementers were three militaristic fanatic officers eager to make a name for themselves: Itagaki Seishiro, a senior staff officer of the Kwantung Army; Ishihara Kanji, the chief operations staff officer; and Doihara Kenji, the head of the Fengtian Special Service Agency.

Song Hongfei sighed, "Ishihara's wisdom was indeed remarkable. In hindsight, Ishihara Kanji was gambling. He was betting that Young Marshal Zhang would see this 'incident' as a provocation and that the subsequent attacks would be seen as a full-scale invasion by Japan. He was betting that Young Marshal Zhang would back down. He was extremely arrogant! But, ironically, he was right!"

Wang Zhi also sighed, "It's a pity that Young Marshal Zhang always misjudged the situation, and in the end, he not only lost his position, but also ruined the foundation laid by his father."

Song Hongfei continued, "Based on our numerous and multi-faceted sand table simulations, if a real battle were to break out, not to mention what would happen if the Kwantung Army were defeated by the Fengtian Army, just the fact that the fighting was halted and a stalemate was formed would most likely result in Ishihara and Itagaki, who dared to 'overthrow their superiors,' being punished by military law, or committing seppuku! The Japanese army would ultimately have no choice but to retreat!"

Wang Zhi and Zhang Yi, reflecting on their deductions over the past few days, nodded silently and both sighed deeply.

The outspoken and hot-tempered Zhang Yi slammed his fist on the table, sending several pens flying and rolling to the ground. He roared, "One wrong step leads to another! In the end, it will lead to a complete collapse, plunging 3000 million compatriots in the three northeastern provinces into misery!"

Wang Zhi stared coldly at the intelligence documents in his hand, his face ashen, and said, "Ishihara's wisdom and Itagaki's courage! The idols that the Japanese people praise are precisely the enemies of our nation!"

Kanji Ishihara was one of the few people in the Japanese military with strategic thinking and vision, and was known by the Japanese as "the head of the three great staff officers of the Showa era" and "the number one military strategist of the Showa era".

Kanji Ishihara's theory of "the final war of the world" envisions the annexation of the Kanto region of China and Mongolia, forming an Eastern empire spanning the territories of Japan, Korea, Manchuria, and Mongolia, ultimately leading to a great showdown between Eastern and Western civilizations—a "final war" for world domination between the East, dominated by the East, and the West, dominated by the United States.

Ishihara believed that Japan must first occupy Manchuria and Mongolia to sustain itself through war and establish it as a strategic base for a protracted war in order to achieve victory in the final battle. His theory was highly sought after in the Japanese military.

In his early years, Ishihara was assigned to the headquarters of the Central China Expeditionary Force of the Japanese Army stationed in Jiangcheng as a staff officer. He spent a long time collecting political, economic and military intelligence in Hunan, Sichuan, Nanjing, Shanghai and Hangzhou. He was a well-known expert on China and had a deep understanding of the social conditions and warlords in China at that time.

Subsequently, Ishihara Kanji was appointed as the Chief of Staff for Operations of the Kwantung Army.

During his time in the Kanto region, he successively wrote "The fundamental national policy to reverse the fate of the nation lies in resolving the Manchurian and Mongolian issues", "The Japanese-American War from a military perspective", and "My views on the Manchurian and Mongolian issues", constructing the so-called "Ishihara Concept", the core of which is the "theory of the final war of the world".

Over the next four years, Ishihara Kanji organized four so-called "staff trips," secretly infiltrating Shenyang, Changchun, Harbin, Manzhouli, Hailar, Shanhaiguan, Jinzhou and other places to collect intelligence, survey terrain, and spy on the training and combat readiness of the Fengtian Army.

Ishihara Kanji formulated detailed plans for the comprehensive invasion of Kwantung, including the "Kwantung Army's Plan to Occupy Manchuria and Mongolia" and the "Outline of the War Plan for Solving the Manchuria and Mongolia Problem." He also put forward a "strategy to create incidents" and conducted in-depth analysis and research on siege tactics, defensive tactics, and even the issue of rule after armed occupation.

In response to the Kwantung Army's inferior strength and weaponry, Ishihara Kanji proposed a strategy of "using the few to defeat the many and achieving a swift victory," namely, "to annihilate the Fengtian Army near Fengtian in a lightning-fast manner and overthrow its command system."

Ishihara Kanji believed that the Fengtian Army was a rabble and could not be defeated.

He even arrogantly boasted: "I don't need to draw my sword, a bamboo knife is enough to scare away the Fengtian warlords."

In the Kanto region, Ishihara Kanji's superior was his old superior and classmate from his time in Eki—Itagaki Seishiro, a senior staff officer in the Kwantung Army. The two were birds of a feather, and together they plotted to invade the Kanto region.

Their plan received support from several fanatical staff officers in the Kwantung Army, including Hanaya Tadashi and Imada Shintaro. They secretly formed a small group, with Ishihara Kanji as the "brain." They held study sessions every Saturday to specifically plan how to invade and rule Manchuria.

Kanji Ishihara oversaw the formulation of a detailed plan for an "armed solution to the Manchurian and Mongolian problem." The Japanese military believed that the time was not right and preparations were insufficient. The military action outlined in the military's previous "Outline of the Plan for Solving the Manchurian and Mongolian Problem" was scheduled for a year later, and thorough military and public opinion preparations must be made in advance.

The Japanese cabinet also believed that it was too radical and the timing was not yet ripe. They were worried that it would lead to strong resistance from China and intervention and sanctions from Western countries. They advocated that the goal of invading China should be achieved gradually through political and economic means first, and opposed the Kwantung Army's reckless actions.

Ishihara offered his assessment: Britain, France, and the United States, due to the economic crisis and their appeasement policy, had little self-interest and were too preoccupied to look eastward; the Soviet Union, having fallen out with the Fengtian Army over the "Chinese Eastern Railway Incident" and busy with its domestic five-year plan, was happy to stand by and watch; Nanjing, on the other hand, was powerless to fight foreign powers due to domestic infighting and various other problems, and as long as its rule was not threatened, it was actually quite happy for the warlords and foreign powers to fight each other so that it could reap the benefits.

Ishihara Kanji even judged that Zhang Xueliang would have no choice but to accept it, for two reasons: first, to prevent Chiang Kai-shek from reaping the benefits; and second, based on the Japanese intelligence agency's understanding of the Fengtian Army's infiltration over the years, he believed that Zhang Xueliang was exaggerating and lacked the courage and responsibility to confront them, relying only on the League of Nations' mediation and the intervention of the great powers.

Ishihara Kanji believed that as long as the Kwantung Army acted decisively in a "subordinate overthrowing superior" manner, creating a favorable fait accompli and escalating the situation, the Japanese military would have no choice but to cover for them, and the cabinet would be powerless to do anything about it!

Itagaki Seishiro, Ishihara Kanji, Hanaya Tadashi, Imada Shintaro, and other core ambitious officers, disregarding the opposition of the Japanese cabinet and the military high command, meticulously planned and deployed their plans, deciding to gamble everything on a crazy, reckless gamble!