Counterattack starts with controlling probability

[What's wrong, Xiao Li? Is there anything I can help you with? ]

Lao Pi's familiar voice sounded in Li Hao's mind again.

"Mr. Pi, tell me, if I want to directly acquire Noah Technology, what is the success rate?"

7 Li Hao asked curiously.

[This event is too complex to be calculated. How about breaking down each step in detail? Do you have any good ideas?]

Li Hao really didn't expect that Lao Pi would also get stuck this time?

But then he thought, his question was indeed a bit amateurish. Acquiring a company is a complicated matter, involving too many processes.

In fact, his thoughts were not that complicated. He knew that Wang Qiang's fund owned 30% of Zhenge's shares, and he also learned from Wang Qiang about the shareholding ratios of other shareholders.

This means that as long as he acquires more than 37% of the shares, the total amount will be more than 2/3 of the shares.

On the premise that he agreed with Wang Qiang's ideas, Li Hao understood that this meant that he and Wang Qiang actually had control over the company.

Besides, Xu Lei still has a 7% stake.

In fact, he only needs the same 30%.

"Boss Pi, it's my fault. I'm so embarrassed!" Li Hao replied in his mind, "Actually, what I want to ask is..."

At this moment, Li Hao was operating the mouse to mark all the shareholders except Wang Xiao, Xu Lei and Zen Fund among the names of people and companies displayed on the screen.

"Do you think it's possible to buy about 30% of Noah Technology's shares from these people?"

Li Hao changed the way he asked the question this time. He was looking forward to Lao Pi's answer.

Xiao Li, you should know that Noah Technology has already raised funds in its C round. With its current valuation, I'm afraid your current funds may not be enough to buy this much equity. Given your current capital size, the success rate after evaluation is less than 10%.

[However, even if you can increase the size of your assets in a short period of time through investment or other means, shareholders who have participated in multiple rounds of financing will have high expectations.]

[Not to mention that they are all aiming to cash out after going public, even now, if you don’t offer them a high premium or promise future benefits, it will be difficult to reach a deal.]

This time, Lao Pi talked a lot to Li Hao in an abnormal way.

"Lao Pi, don't I have you?" Li Hao still had high hopes for Lao Pi in his heart. "Tell me, if I negotiate with each of these natural person shareholders one by one, what are the chances of success?"

If there is no time limit, it is not difficult. However, if I change the fate of many people at the same time in a short period of time, I will not be able to improve the probability to the ideal level. I am afraid that many accidents will occur and I will not get the effect you want.

Li Hao was shocked by this answer.

He didn't expect that the event he needed to change this time would to some extent reach the current limit of Lao Pi's ability.

In fact, this is easy to understand. This involves negotiations with multiple people, and only if all of them succeed can we achieve our goal.

This means that everyone's negotiation results have a certain probability of failure. If everyone wants a good result, the success rate of the overall event will of course be greatly reduced.

"I understand... This time, it seems that ordinary means are unlikely to achieve our goal." Li Hao discussed this with Lao Pi in his mind. "Wouldn't it be better if I could work with Xu Lei and Wang Qiang to find a way to convince them one by one?"

You can give it a try. I can help you evaluate the real-time success rate and improve the probability at critical moments. It’s no problem to do these things.

Lao Pi knew that Li Haoxin’s strategy was quite effective, and he also gave a relatively positive answer.

"Okay, Mr. Pi, first of all, let's double our account balance!"

Having made up his mind, Li Hao began to withdraw large sums of money from his old business - the derivatives market, relying on his luck, and prepare for his next plan.

After a series of thrilling operations, his total assets have now reached 30 billion.

His strength and luck are both terrifying.

Moreover, this operation has added a lot of chips to Li Hao's recent acquisition plan.

For him now, money is just one of the tools to achieve his goals.

Li Hao acted immediately and briefly communicated his ideas to Xu Lei, and hinted to him that he had exclusive channels to raise enough funds, so this would not be a problem.

Of course, the exclusive channel is Li Hao himself.

After all, at this rate of making money, it won’t be long before he can become one of the top 100 richest people in the country.

……

The next afternoon, the two met again in a private room in a restaurant.

Seeing that all the dishes had been served, Li Hao took the initiative to pay the bill, signaled the waiters to leave, and told them that he would not order any more dishes and not to disturb them.

At this time, Li Hao took out a small flat rectangular device made of black matte metal from his bag, with a display screen on the front.

He took the device and walked around every corner of the private room, carefully "inspecting" it. Seeing that the screen showed no abnormalities, he nodded and returned to his seat.

"Let me guess, Li Hao, this isn't a wireless signal detector, is it? Why are you so cautious?"

When Xu Lei saw Li Hao just take out the device, he found it very interesting. Then, seeing him walking around stealthily, he guessed a little bit.

"Brother Lei, this is not about being cautious. What we are going to discuss today is not something we can just talk about on the phone. We still have to make sure everything is safe."

Li Hao looked at Xu Lei with an indescribable expression.

Perhaps this is a manifestation of "a guilty conscience".

After all, Li Hao usually faces problems with an open mind, so it's inevitable that he feels a little awkward when he is planning some not-so-open strategies.

On the other hand, Xu Lei has let go of all this after a period of adjustment in his mentality, and he does not feel uncomfortable at all.

"That's not so bad, haha! Don't forget, even though I've stepped down as CTO, I'm still a shareholder of Noah Technology, both in name and in reality! I can help other shareholders exit and cash out, but how do you know they won't want to?"

Instead, Xu Lei "comforted" Li Hao and strengthened his confidence.

"Yeah, Brother Lei, you're right. I used to think it was inappropriate to discuss this kind of 'inside information' in public. But this time, there's a reason for it, and I bought the 'thing' with my own money, so there's nothing shameful about it!"

After hearing what Xu Lei said, Li Hao felt relieved and replied.

He then continued, "We can't go head-to-head. A direct acquisition isn't realistic. But if we can sway some shareholders, or even convince them to transfer their shares, our chances will be greater. The key is that we need internal support and leverage."

Xu Lei narrowed his eyes slightly, and after a moment of contemplation, he responded, "Your idea is correct, but it's still difficult to shake the confidence of shareholders who are waiting for the IPO. Fortunately, I am familiar with Noah's core competitiveness - the 'Ark' system."

Li Hao replied, "Brother Lei, after hearing what you said, do you have any ideas? After all, compared to me, you know them better."

"The 'Ark' system is the core of Noah. If something goes wrong with this project, shareholders will definitely start to doubt the company's management, especially the technology."

Xu Lei paused for a moment, a meaningful smile appearing on the corner of his mouth.

"My former 'comrade,' Feng Zhiyuan, seems to be being targeted by the new CTO and Wang Xiao. And according to your previous investigation, Wu De probably isn't very good with technology. So, if 'Ark' encounters some minor technical problems, it would be quite 'reasonable.'"

Li Hao raised an eyebrow, leaned forward, and asked, "You mean to make the 'Ark' have problems? But this matter is a double-edged sword. If it is not handled properly, it will cause Noah to suffer heavy losses."

Xu Lei shook his head confidently. "Don't worry. I'm very familiar with the system I wrote myself. Creating some controllable faults in the key functions of 'Ark', such as data synchronization issues or a short-term crash in the algorithm model, will have no impact. These faults may seem serious, but they are actually easy to fix, and people who are not involved in the project will not understand."

Li Hao was silent for a while, weighing the pros and cons in his mind.

"Well... if this succeeds, it will indeed make shareholders question Wang Xiao's leadership ability. At that time, we can use technology to 'rescue' you, and you will rebuild the shareholders' trust in you." He said.

Xu Lei nodded, a hint of coldness in his eyes. "That's right. And with Wang Xiao tormenting our R&D staff like this, there's no guarantee that something big might go wrong one day! It's better to take control of the initiative ourselves."

"Yes, in this way, we are actually helping the company to avoid it being ruined by some short-sighted people," said Li Hao.

Xu Lei smiled knowingly and replied, "That's right! Furthermore, I've already been in touch with some shareholders, and they've long been dissatisfied with Wang Xiao's management. If anything goes wrong with 'Ark', I'm confident I can persuade them to transfer their shares, or even get them to side with us."

When Li Hao heard this, he suddenly felt relieved and the outline of the plan gradually became clear.

He clenched his fists, his tone tinged with excitement. "Okay, let's make this our initial plan! You'll be in charge of internal communications, and I'll talk to each shareholder one by one. When problems surface, we'll clean up the mess later."

At this time, Xu Lei already had some goals in mind. He knew that some of the company's early natural person shareholders and several Zhong Ziqi investors were already very satisfied with the current valuation.

Therefore, it is very cost-effective to cash out now.

While the AI ​​market holds enormous promise, the competition for specific products is fierce. Not every company can advance to Series D, pre-IPO, or even a public offering.

This means that even companies and models that are currently in a leading position may be surpassed at any time, and there is always the possibility of reversal.

Wang Xiao was not wrong about this before.

"Wait a minute, Li Hao! Have you checked with Professor Wang beforehand?"