Counterattack starts with controlling probability

Compared with the price after the closing of the day session, the international oil price fell by about US$1, so as soon as the night session opened, the domestic crude oil price jumped down by 7 yuan to 558 yuan per barrel.

Li Hao sat in front of the computer, and the screen showed the latest price of Brent crude oil futures: US$77.89 per barrel.

He narrowed his eyes slightly and habitually began to analyze the logic behind the data.

The market has been consolidating for several days, and the reasons behind it are not difficult to guess.

Global crude oil supplies are fluctuating.

Gasoline demand in the United States has hit a 20-year high and inventories are at a relatively low level, while Russia's refining capacity has been reduced and the number of idle refineries continues to increase.

Geopolitical factors cannot be ignored either. The tension between Israel and Persia is making market sentiment more fragile.

Li Hao quickly flipped through the analysis report. He knew that if the situation in the Middle East deteriorated further, especially if Israel might take military action against Persian oil facilities, oil prices would most likely fluctuate sharply again.

"This is my chance in the short term," he thought to himself.

"But there are too many unstable factors to just be bullish. The key is how to formulate a comprehensive strategy under such circumstances."

He stared at the screen, carefully analyzing every data point, and in his mind, he and Lao Pi quickly deduced various possible market trends.

His strategy is clear - wait for clearer signals before taking action.

At the same time, Chen Kai obviously doesn't care too much about these complex factors. He prefers simple and quick decision-making.

After glancing at the latest market news, Chen Kai smiled confidently, "Li Ritian, crude oil is fluctuating so widely right now. If you seize the opportunity and go for a move in the direction of a strong trend, your profits will absolutely explode. Your cautious and wait-and-see attitude is completely unnecessary."

Li Hao smiled and did not respond directly.

He knew in his heart that Chen Kai's strategy was too radical. He always wanted to get in and out quickly and only looked at the opportunities in front of him.

But it is precisely this style of operation that attracts more attention during the live broadcast.

The audience in the live broadcast room saw Chen Kai's swift operation, and the barrage of comments instantly exploded:

"Brother CK's operation is amazing!"

"Why isn't this guy named LH moving? Is he afraid to take action?"

"Stop talking. I don't know where this LH got the courage to compete with CK for profits. I think he's going to fail today."

"Brother CK is the real genius trader!"

In contrast, there was still no fluctuation on Li Hao's screen, which led many viewers to mistakenly believe that he had given up on himself and abandoned the game.

Sarcasm and ridicule flooded in, almost drowning the screen.

"The other side isn't really planning to give up for free, right? They're even planning to resist a bit."

"Brother CK has already made nearly a million in profit. Is LH afraid to play anymore? Or is he waiting for Brother CK to lose money? That's simply impossible!"

Even in the face of such great pressure, Li Hao remained calm.

He knew very well that short-term operations could not determine victory or defeat.

He was waiting, but that clear signal had not yet arrived.

The crude oil market has gradually entered a sideways phase, and price fluctuations have become more moderate.

Seeing that the situation was not good, Chen Kai decisively closed his positions, and his account showed a profit of nearly 90.

He leaned back in his chair, drinking Coke leisurely, as if he was sure of victory.

The live broadcast room was filled with comments, urging Li Hao to admit defeat:

"This LH is so boring, I think it should just change its name to LJ. It's such trash, just give in!"

"Brother CK has already won so much, why are you still dragging it out?"

However, Li Hao ignored the ridicule.

He stared at the screen and suddenly noticed that the US dollar index fell sharply.

This is a rare opportunity, but domestic crude oil prices have not responded in time.

"Laopi, it's your turn! If I buy deeply out-of-the-money put options now, what's the probability of profit? How much room is there for a 100x return?"

[Based on the current parameter analysis, it should be above 60%. I can help you increase it to 90%]

"Okay, let's do it! Let those ignorant people see the miracle!"

With Lao Pi's ability as a foundation and the emergence of real signals, Li Hao's eyes lit up, and he decisively bought the maximum amount of near-month deeply out-of-the-money put options at different very low strike prices.

Because market participants generally believed that they had no value, they were quickly sold at ultra-low prices.

In Chen Kai's view, this action was simply suicidal.

He shook his head and laughed, "I didn't expect that this is all you can do? You're not even as good as a gambler, and you still want to gamble? Just wait for the market to teach you a lesson."

But just three minutes later, Chen Kai was dumbfounded.

Crude oil prices began to fall rapidly, changing dramatically at a speed visible to the naked eye, and the price curve plunged like a waterfall.

Chen Kai quickly opened his account, intending to participate in this rapid market trend.

However, Chen Kai has always relied on the buyer's strategy of in-the-money or at-the-money options, hoping to lock in profits through quick entry and exit, and he often places limit orders.

But at this moment, the market was like a wild horse that had broken free from its reins, giving him no chance at all and making no deal at all.

At the same time, the out-of-the-money options that Li Haogang ordered gradually turned into in-the-money options, and the overall trading volume increased significantly, with supply exceeding demand.

The price of the put options he held rose rapidly, as if he was riding a rocket.

Li Hao's account instantly made a profit of more than three million, and the profit was still increasing rapidly.

The trend of the live broadcast room's barrage also reversed:

"Oh my god, LH turns out to be the real god. If he doesn't make a move, it's fine, but once he does, he's an incredible comeback!"

"LH's move was too cruel. It turns out I was the clown."

"This is a textbook operation!"

As the market stabilized at the new price level, Li Hao closed his position cleanly and efficiently, locking in huge profits.

Then, he sold a large number of call and put options in both directions. This action was precise and calm, and directly took advantage of the high option premium after the sharp price fluctuations.

At this time, Li Hao's floating profit had exceeded 500 million. Looking at the soaring numbers on the screen, he felt very confident.

On the other hand, Chen Kai's mentality has begun to waver at this moment.

He was originally full of confidence, thinking that he could win by making a quick profit of nearly one million, but Li Hao's calm counterattack completely disrupted his rhythm.

The price of crude oil remained sideways at a high level. As time passed, Chen Kai watched his profits gradually shrink. His fingers touched the keyboard several times, but he hesitated for fear of making another mistake.

He was originally full of confidence, but now he was filled with anxiety and uneasiness.

The loss of time value caused his profits to slowly decline, and in the end only 95 in floating profits remained.

The audience in the live broadcast room changed their attitude instantly after Li Hao's desperate counterattack. The comments changed from initial ridicule to amazement and worship:

"Ah, how did LH do that? He's the king of comebacks!"

"Just now I thought he was going to give up on himself, but he turned out to be quite stable."

"Brother CK was beaten even though he made over 90 in profit. Looks like he's going to be taught a lesson by an expert this time."

"LH's reverse option sell was brilliant! 500 million in unrealized profit. What a god-level operation!"

Chen Kai felt more and more impatient as he looked at the barrage. He thought he had a firm control over the rhythm, but now he was completely suppressed by Li Hao's calmness and composure.

But he didn't give up.

"Damn, is he really so lucky? This Li Hao is a bit weird." Chen Kai calmed down again at this time.

Because the closing time of crude oil is 2:30 in the morning, he still has a chance.

After a brief panic, Chen Kai quickly adjusted his mentality.

He forced himself to calm down, took a deep breath, and focused on the screen again.

At this moment, he glanced at the number of people in the live broadcast room - it was suddenly exploding at a speed visible to his naked eyes.

The reason why the audience increased exponentially is very simple - there are many people on the Internet pretending to be rich, but seeing with their own eyes the real operation of achieving a floating profit of more than 500 million in less than an hour completely shocked everyone.

In fact, many people who had not paid attention to Chen Kai before, and were not even familiar with options trading, were attracted by this real-time financial battle and could not take their eyes off it.

"This is incredible," many people exclaimed. "I don't even understand what options are, and yet I can still make so much money."

Chen Kai noticed the unusual movement on the screen at this moment. The related varieties of crude oil - fuel oil, asphalt and methanol - all began to fluctuate slightly, with a faint trend of breaking upward.

He secretly calculated that the price would not remain flat forever, so he decided to take the risk of making another unilateral move, ready to seize this possible upward trend and maximize his profits.

His eyes were determined, ready to turn the situation around at all costs.

At the same time, Li Hao also noticed these market fluctuations, but his eyes revealed a more rational light and calm judgment.

He pursed his lips slightly and said to himself, "Laopi, now's the chance, right?"

Sure enough, Lao Pi's probability prediction system gave a clear hint, indicating that adjusting the strategy at this moment was a wise choice.

So, Li Hao closed his previous orders without hesitation and prepared for the next operation strategy.

Sure enough, the price of crude oil experienced a period of oversold and began to correct upward, but the strategies of Li Hao and Chen Kai were not exactly the same.

In order to get higher returns, Chen Kai, like Li Hao just now, bought out-of-the-money call options with different strike prices.

Li Hao used the bull spread strategy, buying call options and selling put options at the same time.

As a result, in the short term, Chen Kai's rate of return is catching up with Li Hao, and his floating profit has reached nearly 400 million.

Li Hao's total profit + floating profit increased by less than 100 million to 580 million.

The trading market is a cycle. There is no eternal rise or fall. After a while, it becomes a volatile market.

This also caused Chen Kai to give up some of his profits.

Li Hao did not miss any opportunity. His mind had never been so focused. Under the pressure of many spectators and powerful competitors, he showed his strong strength.

He used the ShortStraddle selling straddle strategy to deal with volatile market conditions, and finally reaped a wave of premiums.

Finally, as time passed, it was already late at night.

It was still 2:30 in the morning when the domestic market closed smoothly.

At this time, the number of onlookers in the live broadcast room had reached its peak and did not decrease at all because of the late time.

Everyone stared at the accounts and transaction records of both parties and couldn't believe their eyes.

The final profits displayed on both screens are astonishing!