Counterattack starts with controlling probability

As the U.S. presidential election heats up, the views of the two candidates, John Harrow and Donald Trump, have become the focus of attention around the world.

This not only concerns the future of the United States, but will also have a profound impact on the global economic landscape, especially the attitude towards China, which is also a weather vane of the capital market.

Teyoupu's campaign slogan is clear and direct. He said he would lead the United States "back to its roots."

This means more conservative economic policies, stricter immigration controls, and higher barriers to foreign investment.

He also proposed to adopt "strategic containment" against China, emphasizing the need to strengthen the United States' dominance in the global market by restricting technology exports and increasing trade barriers.

In one speech, Te Youpu even explicitly stated: "Daxia is our number one competitor, and their rise threatens our core interests."

"Over the next four years, I will ensure the United States' dominant position and will never give in."

These remarks not only caused fluctuations in the US and Chinese sectors of the capital market, but also made Daxia's decision-makers wary of the future.

In sharp contrast to the typical spectrum, Harris advocates continuing the current left-wing policies, promoting social equality, expanding public welfare, and further strengthening the response to climate change.

"Globalization is an irreversible trend. We need to cooperate with countries around the world, rather than isolate ourselves."

He Jinli said in a televised debate.

"Daxia is our important trading partner, not an enemy. Through negotiation, we can resolve issues rather than create more confrontation."

She also proposed the establishment of a "Global Science and Technology Cooperation Fund" in the hope of promoting the rapid development of AI and green energy through cross-border technological cooperation.

This proposal won the support of many young voters, but also made some conservatives think she was "weak and incompetent."

The two candidates' starkly different propositions have plunged the global capital market into unprecedented turmoil.

"If Te Youpu comes to power, Daxia-related technology stocks will be hit hard because his policies are clearly targeted."

"Harrow is more inclined to cooperation, which is good for global trade, but her high tax policies may crush many companies."

Market analysts have given their predictions, and investors have voted with their money, causing various sectors to fluctuate violently.

Shares of technology companies in Daxia fell for a time, while companies related to new energy and green economy experienced a brief rise.

Li Hao and his team have been closely following the statements of the two candidates.

"This guy Te Youpu is too direct." Chen Kai frowned. "If he really takes office, it will definitely cause a big problem for our international business."

Xu Lei calmly analyzed the situation on screen: "On the surface, his policies appear to be hard-line measures from the right, but in reality, they may further spur divisions in the capital market."

“We can use this opportunity to find new opportunities in other markets.”

Liu Xia leaned back on the sofa, flipping through her phone as she said, "But He Jinli's policies aren't necessarily all good things."

"Her globalization stance is good for technology companies, but high taxes and excessive welfare policies may weaken the economic vitality of the United States."

Li Hao nodded: "The policies of both people have their pros and cons, but the core issue is that no matter who comes to power, Daxia will become the focus."

"The capital market going forward will not only be an economic game, but also a continuation of politics."

As the election day approaches, the United States' foreign policy has become a hot topic of discussion, and its attitude towards Daxia has been magnified to an unprecedented degree.

"Is Daxia a match?"

“What are the possibilities for global scientific and technological cooperation?”

“Will the trade war continue to escalate?”

These issues have focused the world's attention on this election. Li Hao understands that no matter what the outcome, a storm in the capital market will inevitably hit.

After a fierce competition, the U.S. presidential election has finally come to an end.

Teyoupu won the presidential election with an absolute lead.

His party not only won the presidential election, but also controlled both the House of Representatives and the Senate, truly achieving a far-reaching lead in all aspects.

The stage lights were bright on election night. Te Youpu stood in the center, waving his fist and delivering a vigorous victory speech to his supporters in the audience:

"This is a victory for the American people! We will lead our country toward strength, defend our core interests, and reshape global rules!"

"Make beautiful great again!"

His tone was sonorous and powerful, and almost every sentence contained a hint towards Daxia, as if the next policy direction was already obvious.

There were cheers from the audience as supporters waved national flags and shouted the name of the team. The scene was so enthusiastic that it almost drowned out the sound of the TV broadcast.

After Te Youpu won the election, his campaign team immediately held a press conference to elaborate on the next policy agenda.

Unsurprisingly, a tough policy towards Daxia features prominently:

In terms of technological blockade, the Teyupu government will further increase sanctions on Daxia Technology Company and strictly restrict the export of high-end technology.

In terms of trade, on the basis of existing tariffs, new targeted trade measures will be added, especially in the fields of new energy and chips.

In terms of financial supervision, more stringent scrutiny will be exercised over funds coming from China, especially high-net-worth investors entering the U.S. capital market.

"Our economic future cannot be taken away by our competitors," a senior advisor to the Teyoupu team said dryly in an interview. "This is a long-term battle, and we have ample patience."

As soon as the news of Teyoupu's victory came out, global markets immediately experienced violent fluctuations.

In the United States, sectors traditionally supported by the right, such as military industry and energy, saw a sharp rise, while industries with left-wing policy tendencies, such as technology and consumption, suffered a sell-off.

The Nasdaq index fell sharply during the session, triggering panic among technology investors.

At the same time, Daxia's capital market also suffered a huge impact.

"The rise of Tepu directly indicates that Sino-US relations will enter a more severe period."

"Export controls in high-end manufacturing and chips could put our companies in greater trouble."

Pessimism quickly spread across social media, with many investors expressing concerns. Some even posted on investment forums, "Should I consider liquidating my holdings and running away?"

Li Hao in the United States also paid attention to the results of this election at the first opportunity.

The atmosphere in the team's meeting room was solemn, and everyone was discussing the possible impact of Teyoupu's appearance on New Star Investment.

"It can now be confirmed that the technological blockade will become increasingly tighter, and the pressure on our R&D and investment in the United States will increase," said Xu Lei, with a hint of helplessness in his tone.

Chen Kai seemed somewhat optimistic: "Perhaps this is an opportunity for us. The blockade by the United States will cause more capital to flow back to China, and our new technology will be able to be implemented faster in the Daxia market."

Li Hao pondered for a moment and said, "No matter how the policies change, there will always be loopholes in the capital market."

"This is indeed a challenge, but it is also a good opportunity to re-position. We must find a way to break through under the new rules."

Liu Xia glanced at Li Hao and asked softly, "Do you have a plan?"

Li Hao smiled and said, "I haven't thought it through yet, but what is certain is that we won't be forced out easily."

Across the ocean, a high-level meeting was also held overnight in Daxia. Faced with the unique new policy, officials quickly formulated a response strategy:

In terms of technology, we will further increase R&D investment in chips, AI and other fields to reduce dependence on imported technology.

In terms of capital, strengthen the review of overseas funds to ensure the stability of domestic financial markets.

And introduce targeted reciprocal policies to counter the United States' trade barriers and technological blockades.

The Daxia Securities Regulatory Commission also held a press conference to stabilize investor sentiment.

"No matter how the external environment changes, we have the ability to ensure market stability and sustainable economic development."

……

Li Hao sat in his office, flipping through the latest election policy analysis report in his hands, his expression serious.

The sunlight outside the window was dazzling, but it did not dispel the depressing atmosphere in the room.

Professor Hall sat opposite with a cup of coffee, his eyes showing some caution.

"While Tejupo's victory was expected, I was a little surprised by his complete control of Congress and the almost unchecked power."

Hall spoke slowly.

"This means that his policies will be more direct and radical, especially the containment of Daxia."

Li Hao nodded. "Judging from his campaign remarks, the US blockade of Daxia will not only extend to the technological sector, but also to financial markets, capital flows, and even academic exchanges."

"That's right," Hall continued, "His team will definitely formulate stricter export control measures and try to form alliances to win over more countries to encircle Daxia."

"In other words, capital in the U.S. will become more conservative, and the pace of globalization may slow down as a result."

Li Hao put down the report in his hand, raised his head, and said with some certainty in his tone:

"In the short term, the global market will experience a crisis of confidence. Both the technology industry chain and the capital market will be impacted to varying degrees."

"This impact may affect both the United States and Great Britain, but in different ways."

"The United States will lose some market share due to its blockade policy, especially in exports of consumer goods and mid-range technologies."

Hall added.

"Daxia may need to bear greater pressure on high-end manufacturing and core technologies, which may even lead to stagnation in some industries."

Li Hao frowned. "But the market is never one-sided. Teyoupu's 'hard-hitting' strategy may curb Daxia's development in the short term, but in the long run, it may not be a good thing."

"Capital is profit-seeking. If the US policy is too conservative, it may cause more capital to flow to other emerging markets, such as Southeast Asia, India, and even Latin America."

Hall put down his coffee cup, leaned back in his chair, and said solemnly:

"Li Hao, what do you think of Daxia's reaction? I know you have close ties with the domestic capital market, so you should be able to sense the direction of the wind."

Li Hao thought for a moment and slowly spoke, "Daxia's response strategy should focus on two points. First, technological self-reliance, increasing R&D investment, and accelerating the filling of shortcomings in high-end technology. Second, through capital market reform, attracting more domestic and foreign investment and stabilizing economic fundamentals."

"This will be a long-term battle," Hall sighed, "and those of us who do investment must find our place in this great change."

"That's right," Li Hao nodded. "However, in this environment, traditional investment logic may become ineffective. Future games will be more about redefining market rules. Whoever can master the rules will control the market."