Rebirth of the Capital Legend

"Based on your analysis, Brother Chen..." Xu Qiao said, "Is it that we should avoid the consumer sector in the near term?"

After thinking for a moment, Brother Chen said, "That's not entirely true. The consumer sector covers a wide range of industries, and the fundamentals, performance, and stock price trends of the leading stocks in these industries are completely different."

Take the liquor, white goods, and consumer electronics sectors as examples.

Although these three sectors all belong to the core industry sectors of the "big consumption" main theme.

However, in terms of trend development, the structure is completely different.

The liquor sector was the first in the major consumer sector to gain unanimous recognition from major institutional investors and to emerge as a group.

Then, the white goods sector benefited from the booming real estate market and the updated policy support for home appliance replacement.

The expected change has just occurred, which has led to a large number of major funds accumulating positions.

Finally, the consumer electronics sector has seen a surge in activity in the last month or two, thanks to expectations surrounding Apple's new product launch this year and the recent quarterly increase in smartphone shipments compared to the previous quarter. This has changed the prevailing perception that the smartphone market is saturated, leading to concentrated speculation and a large influx of institutional investors rebuilding their positions.

These three branches clearly show a time lag in their trend direction.

In other words, the expectations and purposes of various major funds in building positions in different sub-sectors of the main consumer sector are different.

Since expectations are different, the trends are also different.

Therefore, it is obvious that the internal chip structure, the amount of main funds accumulated, and the situation of trapped positions in each branch are completely different.

The liquor sector was among the first to receive consensus.

Therefore, this sector has the highest concentration of major funds, the heaviest profit-taking, and the highest expectations from investors.

These factors have led to the current situation where, without new positive earnings stimulus, the liquor sector, burdened by massive internal profit-taking, is finding it difficult to create further upward potential and attract sustained large-scale buying interest.

After all, this sedan chair was a bit too heavy.

There are too many people inside the market, but too few outsiders willing to support it. In addition, with expectations being realized and the current price lacking in value, there is naturally less capital willing to support the stock at this level. With fewer people supporting the stock and more people simply sitting in it, the stock price will find it difficult to continue rising without experiencing significant volatility.

The situation in the white goods sector is similar to that in the liquor sector.

However, the realization of expectations was not as severe as in the liquor sector, and the overall valuation was also slightly lower than that of the liquor sector. There were relatively fewer people holding shares in the market, so the pressure to push up prices was not as great. As a result, many stocks in this sub-sector were able to hold their positions and use time to create space.

The consumer electronics sub-sector has not received much attention from investors due to poor prior expectations.

This has led to a situation where, although some profits have accumulated during this period of increase, the overall internal profit-taking volume is not significant.

However, due to the upcoming Apple fall product launch event.

A large amount of short-term capital has gathered here to speculate, with the intention of reaping profits from the positive news.

This has led to a concentrated correction in many core stocks along this line in recent days.

However, compared to the liquor and white goods sectors, the consumer electronics sector actually has the highest potential for future market performance and is more likely to generate some surprises.

Of course, within the broader consumer sector.

There are also some niche sub-sectors, such as retail food, beauty, and medical aesthetics, which actually hold some potential opportunities.

However, some of these stocks require detailed research, analysis, and tracking before a final decision can be made, which takes some effort.

Overall, the entire consumer sector.

The trends of the various sub-lines are not synchronized, and the expected feedback and the realization of expectations are also different. Specific situations require specific analysis.

We cannot simply exclude the consumer sector outright.

I don't think the market trend along this line will be good going forward.

However, from a short-term trading perspective, one should look for opportunities in the most profitable main themes, rather than in the divergent main themes.

From this perspective, temporarily abandoning focus on the consumer sector is acceptable.

"At this point in time, there are indeed significant disagreements regarding the consumer sector. It's perfectly fine to avoid it," Lao Zhang said. "It's better to focus on the major infrastructure sector and the new energy industry chain, which is clearly gaining recognition from major market players. These two sectors offer much greater opportunities and have much lower trial-and-error costs."

"Yes, I think so too," Old Wu nodded. "And in terms of stock selection, judging from the market this morning, it's actually quite easy to choose."

Xu Qiao thought for a moment and said, "Judging from the market trend this morning, the strongest stocks in the new energy industry chain should be Tianci Materials and Penghui Energy. However, these two stocks hit the daily limit early in the morning, so there should be no opportunity to get involved in the afternoon. As for the infrastructure sector, the strongest stock should be Taihe Shares. However, apart from the opportunity to get involved in the early morning, it is basically difficult to buy in afterward."

"Strong core leading stocks..." Old Zhang said, "The intraday buying point is indeed often just a fleeting moment."

"What do you all think of Shuguang Shares and Beijiang Transportation Construction?" Old Wu paused for a moment and said, "I feel that Shuguang Shares' performance in the morning's opening auction was significantly better than expected. The buying interest at that time was also very considerable in terms of volume. I originally thought that this stock would reverse yesterday's trend after such a strong opening auction, but I didn't expect... After a morning of fluctuations, this reversal pattern did not emerge, and even the main funds started to show a net outflow again. As for Beijiang Transportation Construction, the rapid drop in the morning was actually within expectations, but the subsequent recovery of the intraday losses and the maintenance of fluctuations around the opening position, without accelerating the reorganization of forces to attack upwards or further oscillating downwards to wash out weak hands and increase the volume and stimulate turnover, is a bit puzzling. Logically speaking... such a high-level core leading stock should not be in a sideways trend at this position, at least not with low volume."

"The intraday price movement of Shuguang Shares is indeed problematic," Lao Zhang said. "This stock couldn't break through the resistance level today and couldn't form a reversal pattern, so its rally is basically over. The large amount of capital that bought the dip today will likely have a hard time exiting safely tomorrow. As for Beijiang Jiaojian, I think that after a rapid decline and shakeout, it would be ideal for it to recover its losses and consolidate at this level. This kind of movement allows both bulls and bears to enter and exit the market, making it the best situation for turnover."

If the stock is in a hurry to rise, given the amount of profit-taking accumulated in the previous two days, it's risky.

Given the current level of market activity and available funds, I don't think it's necessarily able to withstand the pressure.

If, during an eager upward surge, the continuous buying pressure fails to sustain the market, the stock price will quickly reverse course and decline, causing profit-taking to accelerate and further suppress the market.

When that happens, market sentiment collapses, and the stock will find it difficult to recover its losses and maintain bullish sentiment.

If the market continues to fluctuate downwards and undergo consolidation, without any fundamental profit-making effect, the buying interest will not be very strong. Moreover, due to the loss-making effect, the profit-taking in the market will accelerate. Thus, with insufficient confidence among those following the trend, insufficient buying volume, and accelerated profit-taking, the balance between buying and selling forces will be unbalanced, making it difficult for the market to stabilize.

As it stands, the market is using continued sideways consolidation to increase turnover.

This allows weak-handed profit-takers to gradually exit the market, while also allowing those who are optimistic and willing to take over to enter and lock in their shares, which is actually conducive to the development of subsequent market trends.

Just watch, I think as long as the overall bullish sentiment in the market can be maintained.

In the afternoon market trend, as long as the turnover rate of Beijiang Jiaojian stock can reach more than 25%, its stock price will likely rise again in the late afternoon. As for whether it can continue to hit the daily limit, it depends on the overall market sentiment and the combined strength of buying.

Moreover, even if the overall market sentiment in the afternoon does not support the upward movement of this stock.

Maintaining this position and preserving the basic profit-making effect will prevent the continuous inflow of funds from incurring significant losses.

Given the high market attention this stock receives and the strong belief in the leading stock among numerous short-term investors, it still has a chance to achieve a second wave of consecutive limit-up days. After all, the overall expectations for the major infrastructure sector and the depth of major capital involvement are still relatively high, and the trend of the entire main theme will not end in the short term. This means that the fundamental logic supporting the stock price speculation of Beijiang Jiaojian will not be disproven in the short term, nor will there be an instant collapse of sentiment and expectations.

Regarding the stock price movements of these two stocks...

At this price level, I'm willing to continue increasing my holdings in Beijiang Jiaojian, but for Shuguang Shares, there are basically only selling opportunities, no buying opportunities left.

"Old Zhang's analysis is spot on," Brother Chen chimed in. "Comparing Shuguang Shares and Beijiang Jiaojian, Beijiang Jiaojian is definitely much stronger. Shuguang Shares opened high and then fell today. Of course, I'm not talking about the stock price opening high and then falling, but rather the sentiment behind it. If nothing unexpected happens... these two stocks should have two completely different trends this afternoon."

Xu Qiao pondered for a moment and said, "If Shuguang Shares can't break out of its consolidation and continue its upward reversal in the early afternoon session, it'll probably plunge towards the end of the day, right?"

"There's a high probability it will plunge," Lao Zhang said. "Shuguang Shares' trading volume this morning wasn't low. Judging from the current market activity and trading volume, it's unlikely this stock will have a chance to rebound. After all, market sentiment for this stock is gradually declining. Even with such strong sentiment at the beginning of the morning, it couldn't break through. With market sentiment falling back in the afternoon, it's even less likely."

"The stock's free float is still too large," Old Wu said. "If the free float were even slightly smaller, it would have gone up much earlier."

"It's not just a matter of the size of the circulating shares," Chen said. "There's also the issue of a gap in the distribution of shares."

"What about Pingmei Energy?" Xu Qiao asked again. "This stock did show some unusual activity this morning, and there were obvious signs of speculative funds accumulating positions. However, market attention is not high at the moment, and people's expectations for the coal sector are not strong. But I think this stock has a high probability of making a breakthrough."

Old Zhang glanced at the morning's performance of Pingmei Energy stock and said, "Among the entire coal sector, this stock is quite strong. Moreover, its circulating shares and stock price are quite suitable for speculation. I think it's worth paying close attention to. It would be even better if this stock could hit the daily limit today and if a list of top gainers and losers could be released after the market closes."

"Pingmei Energy saw a surge in trading volume this morning, but it didn't generate any consensus. I estimate it will be difficult for it to hit the daily limit," Lao Wu said. "But it's not entirely impossible. After all, the coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals sectors performed well this morning, creating a significant profit-making effect. With this profit-making effect, and after the midday build-up, market attention on these sectors will definitely increase significantly in the afternoon. At that time, market attention on Pingmei Energy might also increase considerably, attracting a lot of follow-up buying. If the funds that have already established positions can guide another wave at the right time, it's still possible to form a unified upward force."

"It's pretty certain that the steel, coal, and non-ferrous metals sectors will see increased attention in the afternoon market, right?" Xu Qiao said. "From that perspective, it wouldn't be a problem to take a small position in Pingmei Energy."

As he spoke, he quickly added Pingmei Energy stock to his watchlist.

Meanwhile, within the "Shanghai Short-Term Trading Group," several core members of the main speculative trading group offer their interpretations of the market situation and trends.

At this point, both stock markets had reached their midday closing time.

After the market closed, the focus of attention and discussion among countless retail investors gathered on major online stock investment exchange platforms and in various retail investor discussion groups, as expected, began to concentrate on traditional energy sectors such as steel, coal, and non-ferrous metals, driven by the profit-making effect of the market.