Rebirth of the Capital Legend

"For now, the logic behind major infrastructure projects, especially the real estate industry chain, is relatively simple," said Li Jinshi. "As long as housing prices in major cities, and even nationwide, continue to rise, new development projects continue to emerge, and a large number of real estate companies continue to acquire new land, then the market trend in this area is unlikely to stop.

Of course, the logic of the current smartphone industry chain, especially the Apple industry chain, should be relatively simple.

If the next quarter is accompanied by the start of Apple's new product launch conference.

Global smartphone shipments, and even my country's smartphone shipments, have increased compared with the previous quarter, or the previous two quarters of the past six months. The logic is even clearer. At present, the share prices of a large number of core Apple concept stocks such as Lixun Precision, Goertek, and OFI Technology are relatively ahead of expectations. Everyone should have these expectations in mind.

As for the new energy industry chain...

Despite the significant positive news last Friday, it is indeed a far-reaching positive policy for the future development of this line and its related industries.

But can this policy be implemented?

Can the various subsidy fraud phenomena of the past be truly eliminated? Can this policy actually stimulate a number of core enterprises that are truly engaged in technological research and development, reduce their cost burden, and increase revenue and profits? I feel that we have to wait for the passage of time, half a year or a year later, and wait for the performance of some enterprises to be revealed before we can truly confirm or refute it. The expectations that everyone is currently hyping are actually still highly uncertain.

Moreover, regarding the future of the new energy vehicle market...

I always think it is not that optimistic.

This may have gradually matured on the technical level.

However, how willing are consumers to accept it? Compared with gasoline vehicles, is it more convenient or more troublesome? And in terms of manufacturing costs, is it competitive compared with the current mature gasoline vehicle market? It is still unclear.

I think it is still too early to predict the future explosion of new energy vehicles.

Even if there is enough policy support and inclination, it will be difficult to really see a huge explosion in demand in this direction... in a short period of time, right?

What's more, the infrastructure.

For example, supporting facilities such as charging stations and mileage are basically zero at present.

Of course, from a macro perspective, the development of electric vehicles still has a bright future, but right now… the future hasn’t arrived yet.”

"Old Li's analysis makes sense," Chen Guiyun said. "Indeed, in terms of the clarity of expectations, the new energy industry chain still needs to be verified by subsequent performance changes before it can be confirmed. Relatively speaking, the expectations for large-scale infrastructure projects are indeed the most certain. After all, rising housing prices across the country and the massive increase in development projects across various regions are all real things. These will continue to stimulate further strengthening of expectations in various industry sectors and concept sectors along the large-scale infrastructure sector, and will also bring about a comprehensive performance explosion for a number of industry-leading stocks, thereby rapidly increasing the valuations of many stocks."

"The major infrastructure project does have the highest expected certainty." Liao Guoxiang nodded, unable to deny this. After a pause, he continued, "But along this line, the share prices of a number of industry leaders have almost doubled. Compared with its future expected changes, it's difficult to have much room for flexibility or underestimate the advantages. After all, the expectations for this line are a bit too consistent.

Compared with the large infrastructure line...

The current Apple industry chain line has not yet started because this year's Apple new product launch conference has not yet begun.

People are still somewhat cautious and have great differences of opinion about the return of shipment growth in the smartphone industry.

It is because the expectations have not yet been realized and the relevant benefits have not yet been delivered, so everyone’s expectations for the future are not so consistent.

This is why the corresponding core leading stocks in the Apple industry chain have emerged.

Compared with the industry-leading stocks in the large-scale infrastructure sector, it has a good valuation advantage and good room for stock price flexibility.

Relatively speaking, it is also easier to start.

It is difficult to invest heavily in stocks such as Anhui Conch Cement, Poly Real Estate, and Kewan Real Estate at this price.

But Lixun Precision is different. At this point, regardless of whether the stock price rises or falls, considering its expected explosive performance and the valuation recovery caused by the reversal of industry fundamentals, I dare to further increase my holdings or hold a large position at this position."

"Yes, that's true." Li Jinshi nodded and said, "I also feel that the major infrastructure line has not had a decent pullback trend since it started two or three months ago, making it difficult to start a large-scale long position. In fact, for the major infrastructure line, the truly comfortable ones are the shareholders in the market who decisively followed up with a large position when the market started. In other words... the major infrastructure line's market has reached this point, which is already a feast for shareholders.

However, this is not the case with the smartphone industry chain, especially the Apple industry chain.

Because the vast majority of the main institutional capital groups in the market were concentrated in a number of main-board weight core stock areas such as liquor, white appliances, medicine, consumption, electricity, finance, petrochemicals, as well as the main-line core leading stock areas of large infrastructure where the fundamentals have completely reversed.

At that time, a number of core leading stocks in the Apple industry chain were basically classified together with the main line of the emerging industrial chain.

That is to say, this line basically did not receive any concentrated speculation from any financial group in the early stage.

This has led to the main capital group positions in this line being obviously insufficient. At the same time, the stock price is relatively low compared with other core lines in the market, which is a factor with greater flexibility.

Therefore, once the expected logic of this branch line becomes clearer and clearer.

Then, its stock price trend will inevitably develop more rapidly, and the market will be more explosive. "

"No wonder you're so bullish on the Apple supply chain and have chosen to lock in your positions," Chen Guiyun said with a smile as he listened to their analysis. "However, I'm still worried that this year's Apple product launch won't meet the expectations of consumers worldwide. If the launch falls short of expectations, the smartphone upgrade wave will likely be delayed. Consequently, the core companies in the Apple supply chain, and their corresponding stock prices, will likely fall short of expectations, leading to a sharp correction after the positive news materializes."

Liao Guoxiang said, "Last year's Apple product launch event was somewhat below expectations. I think Apple should realize this and make corresponding changes. Furthermore, given last year's poor performance, investors, especially institutional investors, already had low expectations for this product launch event. Given these low expectations, the likelihood of exceeding expectations is very high."

"Well, I agree with what Lao Liao said," Li Jinshi nodded. "Market expectations weren't very high to begin with, so there's no need to worry too much about falling short of expectations and experiencing a significant correction and decline in stock prices due to positive news. Furthermore... within the Apple supply chain, the leading stocks in core industries haven't rebounded much from their bottoming out, so they can't be considered to have met expectations. Even if the final result does fall short of expectations, how much can the stock price adjust? What's there to be afraid of?"

"If you think about it that way... there's nothing wrong with it." Chen Guiyun pondered for a moment and said, "Then I'll continue locking up my positions and give it a try."

After saying this, he turned his attention back to the trading screens of the two markets.

I saw the discussion among several core speculators within the main speculator group of the "Fushan Group".

The market's trading time has reached the time approaching the midday closing.

After the market trading time passed 11 o'clock, the trading intensity in the two markets declined significantly, and the intraday trading volume also shrank significantly.

At the same time, there are several core hot themes that have rebounded strongly, as well as their related industry sectors and concept sectors.

After the intraday trading volume decreased, there was also an obvious downward trend, except for a number of concept leading stocks that had already hit the daily limit.

Other industry-leading stocks and related sector constituent stocks.

The gains in the market have all declined.

However, in this trend of falling stock prices, unlike the huge increase in volume at the beginning of the morning session, these stocks are now showing a significant decline in volume.

The corresponding selling pressure on the market is not great.

As a number of leading stocks in core industries and related sector stocks gradually retreated and fell in volume near noon, the Shenzhen Composite Index, ChiNext Index, CSI 500 Index and All-China Securities 1000 Index, which had originally actively broken through and bottomed out, also showed a clear downward trend near noon, and the gains on the market narrowed.

As for the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index...

Supported by the trend of a number of leading stocks in the main-line industries of the main board that maintained a shrinking sideways trend, there was no obvious abnormal movement, and they always maintained a small range of fluctuations near the flat position. In addition, the intraday volume and half-day trading volume showed a further shrinking trend compared with yesterday and even the previous trading days.

"It feels like the market still hasn't developed a clear trend."

When the two markets closed at this rate, during the lunch break, some of the countless retail investors gathered on major stock investment exchange platforms across the Internet couldn't help but sigh.

"Overall, the market is still trading sideways with shrinking volume, but the loss effect is not as great as it was at the beginning of the morning session."

"Isn't it mainly the sentiment driven by Beijiang Communications Construction's stock? If it hadn't driven Beijiang Communications Construction's stock limit today, I'm afraid the market trend would have been quite bad."

“Yes, fortunately this stock has come out.”

"I had a feeling this morning that this stock would definitely go out, but unfortunately... after the market opened, I saw that the stock's performance was somewhat below expectations, so I didn't dare to increase my position at all."

"I'm the same. I wanted to increase my position, but I hesitated and missed it. Sigh..."

"Beijiang Communications Construction should be the only core leader in the two stock markets that has been trading at the highest limit for consecutive days, right? The market attention for this stock has now soared to the top of the two stock markets."

"That's for sure. It's the only stock in the two markets that has hit the daily limit for five consecutive days."

"This stock is definitely a monster stock."

"Needless to say, I feel like this stock will likely open at the daily limit tomorrow."

"But be sure not to open with a limit up. I think it is safer to continue to increase the limit up after a sharp opening. If it really increases with reduced volume, it is estimated that the top has been reached."

"Yes, considering the trend of stocks on the same board, changing hands is the safest way."

"Tianci Materials and Changying Precision also performed well today. In fact, the core concept leading stocks in the major hot sectors of the market, such as large-scale infrastructure, the new energy industry chain, and the smartphone industry chain, are all performing well."

"That was driven by the Beijiang Communications Construction stock."

"You can say that, but apart from these core concept leading stocks, the performance of other mainline corresponding component stocks is not very good."

"Yes, for example, Oriental Yuhong stock. While the real estate, building decoration, and construction materials sectors continued to rise, this stock unexpectedly failed to outperform the sector index. This is quite rare, but fortunately, the trading volume has decreased."

"As long as the volume is still shrinking, there is nothing to worry about with this adjustment."

"Haha, I think so too."

"As long as the overall infrastructure sector continues to rise, Oriental Yuhong's stock will follow sooner or later."

"Actually, today's market trend is quite polarized, right?"

"Yes, the profit effect is mainly concentrated in a few core concept sectors. Apart from these core concept sectors, the performance of other market sectors is actually very average. Even the performance of the index is very average, and it is fluctuating in a narrow range with shrinking volume."

"But as long as there's no risk of a big drop, you can continue to hold on."

"Well, there's definitely no risk of a big drop, right?"

"The market index is definitely not going to fall any further from here. I'm optimistic that the Shanghai Composite Index will continue to hit 3100 points after a brief adjustment."

"Of course it will break through 3100 points."

"However, after the A-share market closed at noon, the Hong Kong stock market seemed to continue to rise. I feel this will have a relatively good stimulating effect on the market trend in the afternoon."

"I hope so. The recent trends in the Hong Kong stock market are indeed closely linked to those in the A-share market."

Amidst the heated discussions...

After the A-share market closes at noon and before 12 o'clock.

In the Hong Kong stock market, a number of domestic real estate stocks that have attracted much attention and have a strong correlation with the main trend of A-share infrastructure are still continuing to rise and break through, setting new highs in recent times. Seeing the aggressive trend in the Hong Kong stock market, many retail investors who were originally slightly dissatisfied with the market trend near noon, could not help but feel more bullish and willing to go long.