Manhattan Reborn 1978

America.

The largest city in southeastern Texas, Houston.

West of downtown, 19 Piney Point Village, Memorial District, Piney Point Village.

In the afternoon sun.

Armstrong Bartley, professor of economics at Harvard Business School, sat in a wheelchair by the window with a thin blanket covering his legs and complained to his old friend Paul Samuelson with a wry smile.

"I just have a heart disease, it's not like my legs are disabled..."

"They kept me in the wheelchair all day. Aren't they afraid that I would lose my mobility?!"

"Hahahaha~"

Professor Paul Samuelson, who came from New York, was amused by Professor Bartley's "childish" temperament.

He really didn't expect that his once serious and unsmiling old friend would actually turn into a "rebellious adolescent boy" after undergoing a heart surgery. .

. . .

20 minutes later

When the two stopped "quarreling" and leisurely enjoyed the afternoon sunshine, the "intruder" old Morgan opened the door and smiled.

"Our guest is here."

"Oh?!"

"Is it that boy David?"

"Well, it's me!"

"Professor Bartlet, Professor Samuelson, good afternoon!"

David followed behind Old Morgan, waving a portfolio in his hand, winking naughtily and smiling at the two leading figures in the economics field whose average age was exactly 70 years old.

"Hehe~"

Professor Bartlet, who was also "naughty", raised his hand to touch his newly grown beard, squinted his eyes and smiled.

"Boy, what good things did you bring again?"

"Um...are you talking about this?"

"This is my apprenticeship ceremony for you!"

"Apprentice?"

"You...?" Professor Bartlet pointed to David in surprise, and then pointed to his own nose, with a slightly strange expression and he was speechless.

"Yes!"

David rubbed his nose habitually, walked to the two professors, took out several manuscripts from the portfolio, handed them to them respectively, then turned around and handed the remaining copies to Old Morgan and Elder, laughing. road.

"I know this will seem very abrupt~"

"But you know, a stupid kid like me who barely graduated from high school actually wants to write a book that business school undergraduates must learn..."

"There is almost nothing more ridiculous in this world, right?"

"Haha~" Professor Bartley stared at the "brat" David for a few seconds, smiled "agreeing", and lowered his head to flip through the manuscript.

Professor Paul Samuelson frowned and asked when he saw the complex formulas and a series of numbers in the manuscript.

"How did you calculate the numbers above?"

David bared his white teeth and turned to smile at Old Morgan and Elder behind him. He walked to Professor Samuelson's side and explained.

"You should have read the book manuscript I wrote~"

"It's called Monetary Finance!"

"So I thought about putting forward some of my own unique views in the book..."

"The manuscript you see is a calculation formula I set up with the help of Professor John Nash of the Department of Mathematics at Princeton University."

"It's called the Rice Dollar Composite Index!"

"It is an indicator that comprehensively reflects the exchange rate of the rice dollar in the international foreign exchange market. It is used to measure the degree of change in the exchange rate of the rice dollar against a basket of currencies."

David pointed to the dense calculation formulas on the manuscript and said: "Through these formulas to calculate the rice dollar and the comprehensive change rate of the selected basket of currencies, we can measure the strength of the rice dollar, which can indirectly reflect the United States. Changes in export competitiveness and import costs.”

"After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, fixed exchange rates were replaced by floating exchange rates."

"In May 1972, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange formally established the International Money Market Division and launched seven types of foreign exchange futures contracts."

"Since 76, foreign exchange futures trading has entered a comprehensive marketization stage, and has become the world's largest and most active financial trading market."

“At the same time, it will also be the most liquid market in the world in the future!”

"The rice dollar is the strongest currency with the highest weight index among all currencies in the world today."

"The most important foreign currency in the foreign exchange reserves of various countries is the rice dollar. In the international market, the vast majority of commodities are priced and settled in rice dollars."

“Therefore, the movements and rise and fall of the dollar are the most important thing for all traders.”

"At this time, an indicator is needed that reflects the overall strength of the rice dollar in the foreign exchange market, namely the rice dollar comprehensive index - referred to as the rice dollar index."

"The rice dollar index here is set at 100.00, which is the benchmark value calculated from the geometric average weighted value of the March 73 foreign exchange futures contract price."

"Then I made a comprehensive calculation based on the six-year foreign exchange futures price fluctuation curve from 73 to 78."

"As of the end of last year, the dollar index was approximately: 88.53264152."

"Hmm..." Professor Paul Samuelson frowned.

He looked at the calculation formulas listed by David on the manuscript and silently followed them in his mind.

Professor Bartlett opposite, after listening to David's explanation, quickly skipped the complicated and lengthy calculation formulas with bright eyes, and asked David.

"The rest...you go on~"

"Ok!"

David walked confidently to Professor Bartley, guided his gaze with his hand, and continued: "This is the fluctuation of the US dollar index against the US Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate, discount rate, long-term treasury bonds, short-term treasury bonds, stock markets, and futures markets. Comprehensive consideration and impact of major domestic economic data released!”

"I chose March 73 data as the reference for the measurement of the dollar index because it was a historical turning point in the foreign exchange market!"

"Since then, the world's major trading countries have begun to allow their own currencies to freely execute floating exchange rate quotations with another country's currency."

"Of course~ the related Smith-Sonian Agreement also symbolizes the victory of the supporters of the free trade theory."

"But~"

“The dollar index, like the Dow Jones Industrial Composite Index, has certain limitations.”

"Currently, there are only seven types of foreign exchange futures contract data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as a basic reference."

"If more foreign exchange futures contract data can be added in the future, its accuracy and directionality of price fluctuations in the international exchange rate market will become a weight reference indicator that cannot be ignored by everyone in the financial industry!"

"Because, its name is the rice dollar index!!"

"..."

Professor Bartlet, who was sitting in a wheelchair, looked up at David standing beside him. He felt that he seemed to be reflected in the sunlight, and his whole person was a little different from before. . ?

the other side.

Old Morgan sat on the sofa, looked down at the manuscript, and said with some doubts about some of the descriptions above: "Why haven't you finished writing the relationship between the factors that affect the rice dollar index and the prices of precious metals and crude oil you listed...?!"

David stood there and blinked a few times, resisting the urge to complain, found a place for himself to sit down, spread his hands and smiled.

"Three reasons!"

"Time is limited; data is not enough; I haven't thought about it yet..."

"..." Old Morgan was speechless.

Elder asked with a smile from the side: "I believe that what is in your head is definitely more than what is written!"

"Right?"

"Uh..." This time it was David's turn to be speechless.

Old Morgan also glanced at Professor Bartley and Professor Samuelson with a smile, and nodded: "Yes!"

"We are at home, so just speak boldly~"

"..Haha~"

Professor Samuelson, who was still staring at the manuscript, added in a joking manner: "You can say whatever you want, and we can listen to whatever you want!"

"Just think of it as a small talk~"

"Okay..." David cursed in his mind that he couldn't resist the urge to act sexy. He leaned back on the sofa in frustration and remained silent for a moment before speaking.

“After the rice dollar was decoupled from gold in 72, the rice dollar entered a period of extreme depreciation.”

"Until last year, as the Fed continued to raise interest rates, the international exchange rate of the dollar also showed signs of rebounding and appreciating."

"Although, the gold price and the rice dollar no longer have an anchoring relationship."

"But the dollar is still the currency with the highest weight index in the current international monetary system, no one!"

"Coupled with the fact that the rice dollar and gold are both the most important reserve assets of various countries in the world, the strong and stable exchange rate of the rice dollar has virtually weakened gold's status as a reserve asset and the best value-preserving precious metal."

"but.."

"In the rice dollar index I envision, the impact of gold price fluctuations on it has been reduced a lot~"

"With the continuous development of science and technology, precious metals such as silver and platinum group metals (ruthenium, rhodium, palladium, osmium, iridium, platinum), etc."

"As well as the price index of rare metals such as silver, copper, aluminum, tin, zinc, nickel, which are increasingly widely used, they will also be included in the calculation and consideration of the rice dollar index."

"Because the commodity indexes of these precious metals will have a certain negative correlation with the rice dollar index."

"That is: when the rice dollar appreciates, they depreciate; when the rice dollar depreciates, they appreciate!"

"And... crude oil!"

"Crude oil replaced gold and became the anchor commodity for measuring the value of the rice dollar."

"And the United States is the world's largest consumer of crude oil."

“When the U.S. economy enters a period of rapid growth, global crude oil demand will also enter a period of rapid growth, thus pushing up oil prices~”

"In turn, overpriced crude oil will also have a great negative impact on the U.S. economy!"