Manhattan Reborn 1978

South-central United States, Texas.

No matter which country people think of, when they mention Texas, they may first think of Texas. .

"Western Cowboys", "Everyone with a Gun", "Barbeque", "Pickup Trucks", "Red Necks", "Illegal Immigration", "Lone Star State", etc. ~

And many Americans would jokingly say: "Everything is Bigger in Texas"...

Texas (English: Texas), referred to as Texas.

It is the second largest state in the United States in terms of land area and population, second only to Alaska, which is alone outside the mainland of the United States.

Its south is close to the Gulf of Mexico. The terrain in the state is mainly plains and hills. The capital is Austin. The major cities are Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Fort Worth, etc.

Dallas, now the cultural center of Texas, was not well known to many Americans until President Kennedy died here in 63. .

Houston, another most important city in Texas, is the fourth largest city in the United States. Its three pillar industries that developed rapidly after World War II are: petroleum energy, aerospace-related industries, and medical care that is renowned in the United States and the world. health Center.

But in 1925, apart from the newly built Hermann Hospital, there was only a large forest.

Hermann Hospital was built at the end of the Houston City Railroad, far away from the city. .

So much so that a fence was built around the hospital to prevent wild animals from accidentally breaking into the hospital and hurting people at night. .

In 1936, Monroe Dunaway Anderson, a cotton trader and banker from Tennessee, established the MD Anderson Foundation in order to avoid a large inheritance tax after his death, which caused the company he founded to break up.

The foundation's initial capital is 30 yuan.

More than two years later, Monroe Anderson passed away~

MD Anderson Cancer Center is initially completed!

In 1942, the University of Texas and the MD Anderson Foundation established the MD Anderson Cancer Treatment and Research Center next to Hermann Hospital.

In 1943, the prototype of the medical center was initially completed.

It is the first member institution of the Texas Medical Center.

In recent years, this medical center has often topped the list of American news and national cancer treatment institutions.

In 1947, the main building of Baylor College of Medicine was added to the dense forest near the medical center, and commercial facilities began to appear on both sides of the main road.

Construction of the three-story, 1950-bed Texas Children's Hospital began in 106. It is one of the top ten pediatric hospitals in the United States.

In 1964, Dr. Denton Cooley successfully completed the world's first human heart transplant at the Texas Heart Institute.

In 1971, Texas Children's Hospital and NASA collaborated to build a sterile isolation room made of plastic to ensure the survival of a child with a severe immune system deficiency. It was the world's first sterile isolation room. Bacterial isolation room.

In 1976, Hermann Hospital launched a newly purchased ambulance helicopter and opened a dedicated air life rescue line. It was also one of the first hospitals to use civilian ambulance helicopters.

. . .

Southeast Texas, Houston.

Evening~

West of downtown, 19 Piney Point Village, Memorial District, Piney Point Village.

Armstrong Bartlet, an economics professor at Harvard University who had just had dinner, sat by the window of his study and picked up the phone and dialed.

"Hey!"

"it's me!"

"How is your little granddaughter? Has she been diagnosed?"

"Hmm... Is it allergic asthma?"

"Have you found the allergen?"

"...Yeah! It's hard, I know!"

"Then when do you plan to come over?"

"How many days will it take?"

"Okay, I'll wait for you here!"

"Haha~ Yes! I don't have many acquaintances here, and they don't let me read books and do research..."

"I can only act like an office worker every day, eating on time, sleeping on time, and dazing on time."

"Hahahaha~"

"no problem!"

"Come here quickly."

"Uh... right!"

"I talked to that David guy, he..."

"Yeah~ He is in Hawaii and didn't come to my place..."

"Yes, we talked on the phone..."

"Haha~ He thought you would go to Hawaii for vacation as originally planned."

"So, he took his family there in advance to wait for you..."

"Hmm~ Have you seen it? What do you think?"

"Simple?...Yes!"

"But the many variables in that formula are also very interesting... aren't they?"

"Yes! I'm going to wait for a while... then call and talk to him."

"Oh? You want to hear it too?"

"..ok~"

"I'll find someone to get another phone... Let's contact you again in half an hour?"

"it is good."

. . .

Professor Bartlet put down the phone, with a naughty smile on his lips, pushed the wheelchair with both hands, and slowly left the study.

----

On the Pacific Ocean, Hawaii.

398 Corudilla Avenue, Honolulu Island.

In the afternoon sunshine~

David sat in the study room on the second floor, looking through a table full of various materials from time to time, finding some data that might be used later, and excerpting it.

More than half an hour later, there was a knock on the door.

"Clang clang clang~"

"Please come in~"

The butler Aclade, who was standing outside the door, heard David's voice and walked into the study carrying a cold jug of freshly squeezed mixed fruit juice.

"Acklade, is something wrong?"

"Yes."

"The air-conditioning repairman Mr. Klein sent for just now has arrived~"

"He might make some noise at work later..."

"Oh~it's okay."

David quickly wrote down a small piece of data, reached out to pick up the juice that Ackleide had poured, and asked with a smile.

"Is Cui Yingying back? How is the holiday house she chose being tidied up?"

Ackleide smiled and said: "There is nothing missing in that holiday house~ She has asked Chasida to come back first to prepare the ingredients for dinner, and she should be back soon."

"Um.."

"Then when we have dinner later, remember to prepare some for Zina and her friends in advance..."

"Ok!"

. . .

Aclade, the butler, is gone.

David stood up and walked to the window, moved the joints of his shoulders and neck a few times, breathed in the fresh air blowing from the window, and his mind slowly relaxed.

"Ring ring ring~" David's long-awaited phone finally rang.

He walked quickly back to his seat, glanced at the notebook on the table, calmed down his suddenly nervous mood, and answered the phone.

"Hello~"

"Yes, Professor Bartlet."

"Haha~ I have tried to find the answers to the questions you asked."

"Is it convenient for you now?"

"Oh? Professor Samuelson is listening too?"

"Forehead.."

"So it is!"

"Allergic asthma... is really troublesome..."

"Ok!"

"Then let's talk first...?"

"Ok!"

"We just mentioned on the phone that there are several types of time lags in the government's policy response to high unemployment."

“There is a time lag in statistical data, a time lag in concrete understanding, a time lag in passing legislation, a time lag in implementing policies, and a time lag in how policies work, etc.”

"As our domestic economists hope, everyone is focused on achieving high employment and price stability."

“Proponents of discretionary policy argue that a straight-line self-correcting mechanism through wage and price level adjustments is a very slow process.”

"Opponents of discretionary policy believe that if the government does not adopt discretionary policies to reduce unemployment, economic conditions will actually improve."

"So, I am going to...in the book "Monetary Finance" that I am writing, I will express some superficial views on the debate between discretionary decisions and non-successive decisions..."

“Because, we can conclude from more specific actual data analysis that an important factor in the success of non-adaptive and non-sequential policy rules is credibility!”

"The public must believe that currency makers will be quite tough and will not adopt any compromise policies on cost push, let alone intend to promote domestic consumption to reduce unemployment."

"We might as well put it another way, our current government must establish a new hard-line image in the public mind as an anti-inflation!"

"Otherwise, workers will demand higher wages, which will lead to inflation after the unemployment rate drops."

"Um..Yes Professor."

“Expectations of policies formulated by the government are a key point in the wage setting process and implementation.”

"...That's right!"

“Since the Federal Reserve announced in the past few years that it would use monetary aggregates as an intermediary target, monetary policy has entered a cyclical cycle.”

"Yes, the Fed's commitment to fulfilling the monetary aggregate indicator is not very firm!"

"In fact, the Federal Reserve is using the indicator range for regulating the federal funds rate to control..."

"Um.."

"As you said, this series of chain events accumulated and finally broke out at the end of 74."

“The degree of economic contraction at that time exceeded everyone’s psychological expectations~”

"The federal funds rate was rapidly lowered by 7 percentage points, and continued to impact the lower limit of the indicator range, causing the money growth rate to also decline rapidly. Until the beginning of 25, the data had turned into a negative number."

"Obviously, at a time when we were going through the worst economic contraction of the post-war period, the sharp decline in the money supply was a serious mistake."

"In the September 75 issue of the American Economic Review, three professors from Johns Hopkins University, Yale University, and Princeton University jointly published an article that mentioned..."

"Yes ~ you have seen it too..."

"Um.."

"Despite the Fed's rhetoric about using monetary aggregates as an indicator..."

"But in reality they are using the federal funds rate as a maneuver, leading to procyclical monetary policy."

"I think so?"

"Um...I'm not sure what they are thinking..."

"However, I think one of the reasons why they do this is... they are still very concerned about the stability of interest rates and are unwilling to give up control of the movement of interest rates."

"Yes!"

"If it continues to develop, next year at the latest, the incompatibility between the Fed's verbal policies and actual implementation procedures will reach a historic peak~"

"By then, if the Fed does not make major changes to its policy process, it will..."

"..I?"

"You mean...let me...?"

"Forehead.."

"Please wait a moment, let me think..."

"Ok~ You can call back in 5 minutes."

. . .

After hanging up the phone, David picked up a notebook, walked quickly to the sofa and lay down relaxedly~

He rubbed his forehead with his hand while flipping through what he had written based on the memory in his mind. .Lost in thought.

"Bell bell~"

5 minutes passed quickly.

The phone rings again~

David did not get up immediately to answer the phone this time. Instead, he silently reviewed a few key points recorded in his notebook before sitting back in his old position and picking up the phone.

"I'm David."

"Yes, Professor."

"Haha~ I just happened to be lazy and lay on the sofa for a while, thinking about it clearly..."

"Ok!"

"I think... uh..."

"I would like to state first that everything I say next is based on theoretical research and is not..."

"..ok!"

"Then I'll say it directly."

"The first thing to be sure of is: executing higher interest rates is a necessary means to lower the inflation rate."

"Secondly, the Federal Reserve cannot continue to emphasize the federal funds rate as an operating method, and it must expand the index range value by at least four times to control it within the range of 4%-10%!"

"Then, the Fed's primary operating tool will become non-interventional reserves."

"The Fed will base this indicator on an estimate of the size of discount loans that banks may borrow."

"Of course~"

"With the federal funds rate no longer used as an operating instrument, there will be considerable volatility."

"This is all expected..."

"..Yes!"

"Higher interest rates will narrow expectations for the growth rate of the money supply."

"But I think... quite the opposite!"

"The fluctuations in the growth rate of the money supply will not immediately decrease, but will increase!"

"..Um!"

"You're right!"

"High interest rates will cause a large-scale wave of business closures in the country, and the unemployment rate will further accelerate."

“But the moderate interest rate hike policy implemented by the Fed in the past few years has proven that it cannot control the growth of the inflation index!”

"It's like... we have a chronic disease, have been suffering for several years, have seen countless doctors, and taken many kinds of drugs but can't stop the deterioration..."

"It hurts...it does hurt!"

"If I were asked to choose between relatively short-term pain and continued torture of the disease... I would definitely choose the former!"

"Long pain is worse than short pain!"

"Um.."

"time.."

"I think it will take at least three years!"

"Yes!"

"The time lag of policy will not be significantly shortened just because it is correct."

"So, we might as well fully summarize the painful experience this time and use it as the starting point for the next policy cycle~"

"Monetary policy must be more forward-looking!"

"Only with the correct strategy of pre-emptive strike can we more fully respond to the rapid economic decline and violent turmoil that will break out again~"

"Um...what do you think of my formula?"

"Variables in formulas?"

"Yes!"

"I have already summarized the imperfect parts of some rules and formulas~"

"For example: its neglect of tone factors will cause..."

"Also, this rule formula measures the inflation gap directly by deducting price increases from the current actual inflation rate."

"Although it is simple in calculation...but its practical use is not great..."

“Because the expected inflation rate in advance is the key to formulating monetary policy!”

"For this reason, I have restructured a forward-looking rule based on expectations~"

"Its specific expression is:..."

(Three hundred words skipped here)

. . .

"Yes, have you written it all down?"

"Ok!"

"I think that the original basic rule formula, in addition to ignoring the expected factors, also ignores the factors of exchange rate fluctuations~"

"Because in an economy with an open market, the exchange rate can affect the inflation index through factors such as international trade and capital flows."

“So, based on these considerations, I tried to establish a monetary policy rule formula under an open economy~”

"Its formula is specifically expressed as:..."

(Three hundred words skipped here)

. . .

"In addition, I think that when serious external shocks occur, monetary policy does not need to stick to these sets of formulas."

"I hope this simple set of rules and formulas can provide an idea for monetary policy. Choosing an inflation target must not only take into account the current inflation index, but also the actual unemployment rate."

"Yes~"

"Professor Milton Friedman's monetary policy for nearly a decade has been..."

"But judging from the results of its execution, it has not achieved the goals that people expected."

"I have also done some superficial research on this issue..."

"If I have the opportunity, I can meet Professor Friedman and have an in-depth discussion with him..."

"Yes ~ I understand."

"Perhaps, the Federal Reserve will not consider these formulas when formulating monetary policy."

"But they will definitely... show the actual execution curve of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in the next 15-20 years in front of people!"

"Um.."

"Hehe~"

"Isn't it already getting late there?"

"Are we here first today?"

"Continue another day?"

"..OK!"

"Tomorrow, I'll find someone to install a new phone so Professor Samuelson can participate."

"Oh? Can he hear it?"

"Then...can I just say it?"

"Ok!"

"Professor Samuelson, since we last met, I have accumulated a lot of questions and I want to ask you for advice!"

"Ok!"

"Then let's talk again at this time tomorrow?"

"Goodbye! Professor Bartlet, Professor Samuelson."

. . .

David held the microphone in his hand. After hearing the blind tone coming from inside, he let out a weak sigh and put down the phone.

He quickly walked out of the study and entered the bathroom, where he took a quick warm bath to slowly calm down his overloaded brain.

Taylor's law, and the two corresponding analytical formulas that have gradually become complete, are enough to trigger an unprecedented discussion in the economics community~

But these. .Still not enough!

David knew very well that he did not have any identity to stand up and challenge those long-established experts and scholars. .

Since the development of economics, more than a dozen relatively mainstream schools of thought, large and small, have been formed~

The cruelty and reality of the battles between concepts, ideologies, and factions between them will never be seen by outsiders. .

Therefore, David must obtain the recognition and praise of Professor Bartley and Professor Samuelson as soon as possible in order to have some opportunities to make his voice heard in the economics community ~

. . .

in the bathroom.

David wiped off the water drops on his body, stood in front of the mirror, and silently reminded himself in his heart.

"The future development trend must not be changed lightly!"

"If something unexpected happens...then you have to be selfish!"

----

Southeast Texas, Houston.

night~

West of downtown, 19 Piney Point Village, Memorial District, Piney Point Village.

In the study room on the first floor.

Professor Armstrong Bartlett gave the old Morgans the recorded Taylor's Law and the two new rule formulas that David had just proposed for them to watch.

That's right~

Before Professor Bartley called David, he specifically notified the old Morgans to come and observe.

Because in his heart, he has always treated the old Morgans as nephews~

Treat their children as your own grandchildren, love and teach them~

Professor Bartley taught almost everything he had learned throughout his life to the children of old Morgan. .

Therefore, he did not want to see the seeds of a rift being planted in his heart between Lilith, her fiancé David, and the old Morgan couple. .

But~

After Bartley saw the serious expression on old Morgan's face and the calm expression on Nariya's face, he realized that he seemed to have done something useless again~

. . .

ten minutes later.

Old Morgan put down the record in his hand and asked Professor Bartley who closed his eyes to rest.

"Have you communicated with Professor Samuelson?"

"What does he think of this?"

"Hehe~"

Professor Bartlet opened his eyes slightly, turned to look at the thick night outside the window, and whispered.

“It is undeniable that Milton Friedman, Paul Samuelson, etc., and I, this generation of people who have devoted their lives to economics, live in a very free era!”

"Our whole life, we are constantly learning, collecting, analyzing, organizing, publishing, debating, studying, revising, republishing, etc., and the cycle continues ~ until we leave this world."

"But the research theories that we have believed to be correct all our lives can only be left to the future and time to verify who is right and who is wrong bit by bit."

"So ah~"

"This is something I regret very much!"

"I may not be able to see that day..."

"But you can!"

Professor Bartlet slowly adjusted his sitting posture and stared into Old Morgan's eyes.

"In the past few years, people on Wall Street may not have thought that... construction workers, dockworkers, salesmen, etc., people engaged in other professions will become a real trader~"

"In the six months after the oil crisis broke out, even the shoe shine boys on the streets of Manhattan were very familiar with talking about which stocks to buy to make money... Which stocks to buy will definitely lose money..."

"Hehe~"

"Don't you feel familiar when you see and hear these?"

Old Morgan squinted his eyes, took a deep breath, and nodded slowly.

Professor Bartlet raised his right hand, made a few grasping gestures, and smiled.

"I'm old!"

"Paul Samuelson and Milton Friedman are not getting any younger either!"

"Our generation is destined to be slowly eliminated by time~"

"So, the time left for us... is not much!"

"Are you sure you want to watch him...sneak away?"

Old Morgan gently rubbed his chin with his hand, tilted his head and glanced at his wife Neria, and asked with a smile.

"You're very optimistic about David's theory?"

"No!"

"Theoretical models that have not been verified by time are all false propositions!"

"But his... simple theory is enough for me to see some of its complete parts~"

Professor Bartlet looked serious and said very seriously: "In the internal meetings of the Federal Reserve Bank of America, people are still arguing and arguing..."

"Who benefits from allowing this to continue?"

"nobody!"

"David is right about this!"

"His psychological expectations and mine are not much different~"

"The fastest is half a year, the latest is one year."

“The Fed’s bad monetary policy will usher in the most violent criticism in history!”

"At that time, do you think... who can stand up and re-establish a tough image and firmness and confidence for the public?"

"..." When old Morgan heard this question, a tall figure immediately flashed before his eyes.

But Professor Bartley didn't seem to want him to say anything right away, so he continued.

"At present, raising interest rates is indeed an effective means to curb the continued rise in inflation."

"If, as David just said, within a year... the Federal Reserve decides to implement restructuring..."

"Do you think it's David's luck?"

"His so-called simple theories are all nonsense?"

"Hehe~"

"I'm tired!"

"Come again tomorrow!"

Old Morgan frowned slightly, stood up, walked to Professor Bartley, and asked with concern: "Do you... feel uncomfortable somewhere?"

"No~ I'm just tired."

"..OK!"

"Then let's go first."

"Ok!"

. . .

The old Morgans are gone.

Professor Bartlet watched the couple leaving from the window and sighed silently in his heart.

Hope it's not too late!

----

On the Pacific Ocean, Hawaii.

398 Corudilla Avenue, Honolulu Island.

In the cool night breeze, bursts of laughter made the atmosphere in the yard gradually enter a more relaxed atmosphere.

Zina's best friend, Professor Gila Cox, with a blush on her face, told about the embarrassing things Jane Fonda had done, which made everyone laugh.

And Jane Fonda, who was "exposed" by her one after another, was not willing to "fall behind" and talked about some of Professor Cox's "stains in life". .

David hugged Cui Yingying and Elena beside him. Listening to the two of them "hurting each other", he couldn't help but look at the housekeeper Aclade who was standing aside with a smirk many times. .

What is called. .love?

Gila Cox, this is what I call: I traveled thousands of miles and traveled across oceans to see you for love!

PS:

The five major domestic banks issued an announcement that deposit interest rates have officially entered the 2 era.

The arrival of the low-interest era means lower loan interest rates, and also means that competition among banks will become increasingly fierce.

How to make your savings and assets outperform inflation is already common sense that our generation must try to learn!

If you don’t manage your finances, your finances will ignore you~

It has completely become a reality. .

But please don’t blindly believe in the so-called high returns!

What you want to earn is interest, and what others want to earn is your principal. .

Pies falling from the sky for no reason will only kill people!