Manhattan Reborn 1978

In the living room on the top floor.

Drunk Laura, just now when David and Lilith were chatting about the medical research center and getting high, this little girl suddenly got up and went to the bathroom for some reason.

When Lilith came back from accompanying her and wanted her to go back to the room to rest first, Laura was unwilling to go back to the room to sleep no matter what Lilith said and insisted on having a few more drinks with David.

Now, she was being held softly on the sofa by Lilith, holding a drink in her hand and licking it like a cat.

Everyone also took their own wine glasses, left the bar, and sat around on the sofa in the living room.

Elder and Panaris spoke up, asking David about the oil crisis that he predicted might happen at the end of the year.

"David, can you tell me some of your thoughts on what's going to happen at the end of the year?"

David found a comfortable sitting position for himself on the sofa, half leaning on Polly beside him.

The smell of her body made David feel very reassured.

When David listened to Elder's question, he was a little excited by the alcohol, which made him think that he might as well tell the whole story this time and stop hiding it.

Pine and Giles had been holding back this question and never asked it again. Today they asked it through the mouths of Elder and Panaris, so David planned to give them a complete answer!

For no other reason than to ride on the Morgan family's ride and earn some capital for themselves so that the company can develop better in the future.

"Actually, Pine should have obtained some specific information about Iran from various channels. There is already an undercurrent in their country."

"The Pahlavi dynasty has been changed. As of now, it is unstoppable."

"It's just those things in their domestic politics that I don't want to delve into or discuss in depth."

"Because they...are too far away from me!"

“Let’s just talk about the impact that the Pahlavi dynasty will have on the international market after its fall~”

"Iran, as a major oil-producing country with proven oil reserves accounting for about 10% of the world's total reserves, if they stop oil exports, there will be a demand gap of one-fifth to one-tenth in the international oil market every day."

"We all know that it is impossible to estimate the specific time for the end of a process like theirs, which involves tearing down everything and rebuilding a country."

"If Iran continues to suspend production and oil exports, and the demand for crude oil in the international market does not decrease, the price of oil will continue to rise."

"Then other oil exporting countries will definitely take advantage of this incident to raise oil export prices again, taking advantage of the situation and taking advantage of it!"

"Moreover, the rise in oil prices will also affect all industrial chains of petroleum products, and their prices will also continue to increase exponentially as oil prices rise."

"Let's take petrochemical raw materials as an example. For every 17.00 percent increase in oil prices, various organic chemical raw materials will increase by more than [-] percent. Some types of chemical raw materials may even increase several times."

"If we refer to the oil crisis at the end of 1973, the market price of crude oil more than quadrupled, and the price of raw materials in the petrochemical industry chain also increased by about four to ten times."

"Then the impact of this year-end oil crisis may be no less than that of 73."

"I don't think I need to tell you about the specific follow-up impacts and problems that will occur in the future. Elder and Panaris can also think of them."

David paused momentarily and took a swig from the drink in his hand.

He had already drank a lot, and he didn't want to go home drunk again today.

Elder glanced at Pine, whose eyes were bright.

He had just talked to Pine about the situation in Iran.

As David said.

The United States is worried about the situation in Iran. . .There have been proposals to evacuate the embassy.

An unstoppable trend is brewing in their country, which will break out at any time and swallow up the Pahlavi dynasty that they call decadent.

Panaris sipped his wine and thought for a moment: "David, do you think the oil crisis that is about to happen this time will be as serious as the one in 73? Or will it be worse?"

David squinted his eyes and shook his head: "I think overall, it can be called the second oil crisis in the world."

"That time in 73 was the first time!"

"And don't ignore its neighboring countries."

"If this storm in their country ends, they will successfully overthrow the existing Pahlavi Kingdom and establish a new government."

"Will they be accepted by neighboring countries?"

"I don't think so!"

"I feel that in the next few years or even ten years, Iran will not be able to safely continue to assume the role of a major oil exporter in the world!"

Elder lowered his crossed legs with a serious expression and sat upright.

"You mean, it will also go to war with neighboring countries? There is no analysis report on this from Washington or the Pentagon!"

"How could you now..."

David waved his hand at him: "Elder, do you have faith?"

"Me?...Of course!"

"Those who are about to overturn...! Their beliefs may be stronger than yours!"

Pine patted Giles, who had thought of something after hearing David's words and was about to jump up and speak.

"You mean, in the name of faith, there will be a new war in the future?"

"Of course!"

"However, these are all my guesses. I believe you will find some clues to support them!"

David shook his head and drained the drink from his glass.

Then he sat up straight, reached for a cushion next to him, put it on Polly's legs, and lay down on it.

He put his legs on the armrests of the sofa and found a comfortable position lying on his side facing everyone.

"Polly, I'm tired. Please massage my head. I have a headache!"

Polly's face was rosy, she nodded with a slight smile, put down the wine glass in her hand, and slowly pressed her hand on David's head.

David snorted comfortably, but none of the people in the living room paid attention to his actions.

I was thinking in my heart that his words were undoubtedly a series of bold guesses.

If these things in the future are all true, the oil market structure will be completely disrupted, reshuffled, and reorganized in the next few years or even ten years.

After a few minutes.

David's voice came, breaking the silence in the living room.

"Have you ever thought about, if oil prices continue to double due to this oil crisis, which industries will be most affected in the country?"

Giles didn't drink too much tonight, and his mind quickly thought of an industry.

"car!"

"Domestic cars are generally equipped with engines with high fuel consumption. If oil prices rise, the sales of these high fuel consumption cars will definitely be affected!"

David felt the massage on his head and squinted his eyes comfortably: "What companies are producing low-fuel consumption cars?"

"jp country!"

“Several domestic car companies have launched several new models with low fuel consumption, but their sales in the United States have not been high in recent years.

If the price of oil doubles during this oil crisis, more people should turn their attention to these JP vehicles. "

David applauded Giles' answer and said: "The U.S. auto sales market is so big. If the sales of JP cars increase, it will also cause the sales volume of several major international manufacturers such as General Motors, Ford, and Volkswagen to suffer."

"At that time, they will also follow the market development situation and launch new models with low fuel consumption and small displacement to please market consumers."

"But after all, they have lagged behind those car companies in JP. Their market share and recognition have been overtaken, compressed and suppressed."

"Let's take General Motors as an example. If it wants to regain its market share, it won't be able to succeed by following the trend and launching a few new models, lowering prices, and advertising more!"

"It currently faces many problems in its development, but the biggest problem is..."

David raised his head to Pine, motioning for him to continue.

Pine's pretentious behavior towards David made him an exception and gave him the internationally recognized middle finger of contempt.

"union!"

David gave him a thumbs up!

Who should be responsible for the fact that General Motors will be forced into bankruptcy in the future.

There are different opinions on this issue!

However, there is one most important factor that is recognized by most people.

That is a series of selfish, disruptive, self-interested actions by the union, which have made hundreds of thousands or millions of auto workers who rely on the union become part of the unemployed army.

For this reason, some key workers of the trade union have been investigated and tried by the law enforcement departments of the authorities.

There were others who were even more unfortunate. When some of them learned the truth, the angry workers beat them into sieves with guns and went directly to hell. .

Elder thought more. As the general manager of Morgan Bank who helped Panaris manage all affairs, he knew all about the far-reaching impact of the oil crisis in 73.

"David, do you think that if the oil crisis happens this time, the price of rice will rise first and then fall like it did in 74?"

David closed his eyes and thought about his memory and some information recorded in his notebook.

"We all know that inflation continues to grow. If the government wants to control the continued rise in prices, what do you think those in Washington will come up with?"

Panaris said: "It is necessary and necessary to raise the base interest rate and raise interest rates!"

"anything else?"

"and also?"

This time it was Pine's turn to continue: "The dollar, as one of the international settlement currencies after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, its weakness and depreciation will make the current domestic inflation more serious and accelerate its growth again. "

"If the gentlemen above do not handle this crisis in time, the international value of the rice knife will be completely replaced by other currencies such as the pound sterling."

"If we find the right time to short rice, this business will not be lower than the income from long crude oil futures, but may be even more!"

Giles bit his fingernails and frowned, then continued what Pine said: "Not only will rice knives depreciate, but the price of gold will also change dramatically due to this crisis."

"Crude oil production is reduced and oil prices are rising."

"The value of rice is likely to rise and then fall like it did during the last oil crisis."

"So, the Federal Reserve will definitely raise interest rates next year!"

"Then the price of gold will continue to rise with the impact of this series of events."

"The price of gold is now around 300 meters per ounce, fluctuating up and down."

"David, how high do you think the price of gold will go?"

"Will it...be like oil, double in value?"

Where in David's mind does he still remember these specific things about the gold price trend. .

However, the depreciation of rice knives and the rise of gold prices are justified according to the analysis just made by Giles.

He thought for a while, hesitated and then said: "I haven't done any specific research on the price trends of gold and rice knives. The amount of information at hand is too little."

"But I can tell you with certainty that the Federal Reserve Bank of America will start to continuously raise bank interest rates next year in response to this crisis. I think there should be a 50% chance that the bank interest rates will exceed 20% in the year after next!"

"20%?!!"

Everyone in the living room was choked by this number.

The movements of Polly's hands also paused, and her mind was filled with shock at David's prediction!

Elder took a deep breath.

As an expert, he knows best what it will mean if the Federal Reserve raises the bank interest rate to above 20%. .

Panaris, Pine and Giles all drank in silence, looking at the empty glasses in trance, thinking and digesting David's prediction.

Initially, when Pine and Giles met David for the first time, they learned that there would be an oil crisis at the end of the year.

Neither of them thought that its follow-up would have such a huge impact!

It is no longer a business that the Morgan family can influence and control!

Now, they have to find evidence for all this, formulate a complete plan, and find reliable allies and friends to seize and win this huge opportunity together~!

Lilith has been silently taking care of Laura.

She looked at David lying on the cushion of Polly's thigh, feeling a little lost. She didn't know what was going on in his little head, and she unconsciously massaged Laura a little harder with her hands.

After a few minutes.

In the living room, Pine, Giles, and Elder all looked at Panaris, who had been lowering his head and thinking silently without making a sound.

Tonight, this matter has reached this stage. As the eldest son of the Morgan family, he should stand up and promise something to David.

Panaris put down his wine glass and looked up at the people.

He leaned forward, adjusted his sitting posture, and looked directly at David.

"David, you are able to tell us these predictions today. I want to thank you for your trust in us!"

"Don't worry, apart from everyone here, I promise that only my father will know about all our conversations in this room tonight!"

He paused, looked at David who slowly sat up and continued: "As a friend of our Morgan family, I promise that no matter how much the Morgan family invests in this oil crisis, 15% of its final proceeds will be % will be credited to your private account!"

"We will open a private account for you in Morgan Bank, and then the money will be transferred in batches, and it is guaranteed to be your after-tax income!"

"David! If you are willing, I would like to invite you and your family to visit my home in Houston over Christmas at the end of the year."

"When the time comes, I will introduce my family to you, and you will definitely like it there, I promise!"