Rebirth: Stockbroker, I have market data

Chapter 518: Du Wenbo’s review

Recently, Du Wenbo had a premonition that the trend of the market was wrong. It was too weak, and the trading volume was very low. It was so low that if it continued like this, the market outlook would be worrying!

Du Wenbo is good at stock trading, which is unknown to others in the Shanghai branch. He is not only good at practical operations, but also particularly good at summarizing and analyzing. He is engaged in investment research in the brokerage business department of the company headquarters, which can be said to be the leader of the headquarters. Analyst, this should be an analyst position at the sales department level.

But he happened to become the general manager.

What he admired about Xiao Jin very much at the beginning was that Xiao Jin had a very accurate grasp of the general trend. It was precisely because of his accuracy that he was able to command so many investors.

This is not the case in the Pudong Road Sales Department. It can be said that Du Wenbo also wanted to do the same thing as Xiao Jin, but the results were different. This is what Du Wenbo wanted to discuss with Xiao Jin.

Xiao came into Du Wenbo's office. It was almost time to get off work. After the two chatted for a few words, Du Wenbo looked at the time and said: "Old Xiao, are you busy today? If not, I will treat you to a meal." , let’s have a good chat!”

Haha, Xiao Jin can only give me face, so let’s talk.

The two left the company, chose a relatively quiet restaurant, and started chatting directly.

"Old Xiao, how many years have you been working in securities?"

"Well, I started doing this at the end of 08, when I just got the qualification certificate!"

"So, you haven't been practicing for three years yet?!" Du Wenbo was surprised!

"Uh, yes!"

Du Wenbo shook his head and looked at the sky, started to think, and muttered: "At the end of 08, well, let me think about it..."

After a while, Du Wenbo began to review, and Xiao Jin was impressed by this review.

Du Wenbo reviewed the market trends of the stock market from 08 to the present, and his words were very professional. Xiao Jin admired his memory and professionalism, and he summed it up well:

December 08 to January 12 - the first stage of rise

The key nodes are:

2008.11.9 The National Standing Committee of the People’s Republic of China announced the [-] trillion yuan;

2008.11.25qe1 opened;

2009.2.17 Obama’s 7870 billion fiscal stimulus;

On March 2009.3.18, 1, the Federal Reserve expanded the scope and scale of QE[-].

The main rising logic during this period is that the monetary and fiscal policies of China and the United States are loosened at the same time, and the economy has embarked on a recovery logic.However, after entering the second half of 09, domestic monetary policy began to show signs of tightening.

January 10-June 1——Adjustment

After entering the 10th year, domestic monetary policy began to emphasize the risk of inflation, and in the first half of the decade, the reserve ratio was tentatively raised three times, and m10 began to peak obviously.

10年1月开始调控地产，国家也在4月和5月两次点名商品炒作，国外这边，美国10年3月退出qe1，并且欧债危机也开始在10年5月蔓延。

In commodities, China and the United States are tightening their currencies at the same time, domestic policies are controlling inflation, and the global economy is at risk of a second bottom due to the European debt crisis. The domestic PMI in May 10 fell relatively quickly, from 5 to 2010.4.15, about 2010.6.7 % adjustment.

Several key nodes are:

2010.1.10 National Article 11 on Real Estate Regulation;

On January 2010.1.18, 0.5, the central bank raised the reserve requirement ratio by [-]%;

On January 2010.2.25, 0.5, the central bank raised the reserve requirement ratio by [-]%;

2010.3 The Federal Reserve exits qe1;

2010.4.14 The National Standing Committee named inflation;

On January 2010.5.10, 0.5, the central bank raised the reserve requirement ratio by [-]%;

In May 2010.5, the European debt crisis spread, and Greece applied for assistance;

2010.5.27 The Standing Committee of the State Council named the operation of agricultural products;

On May 2010.5.31, 52.7, China's Caixin manufacturing PMI recorded 2.5, a decrease of [-] from the previous month, which was the largest single-month decline since the financial crisis;

On June 2010.6.30, 50.4, China Caixin manufacturing PMI recorded 2.3, close to the boom-and-bust line, and continued to drop [-] points month-on-month.

June 10 to October 6 - the first wave of the second stage of rise.

Because the economy was at risk of a second bottom, domestic monetary policy turned loose again on June 10, 6, and commodities began to trend v, repairing the sharp decline in May. On August 8, the United States also released news of qe5 , at this time, commodities began to strengthen again, and domestic PMI also rebounded sharply again.

Several key nodes are:

On June 2010.6.8, [-], the central bank emphasized that based on the new situation and new circumstances, it would implement a moderately loose monetary policy and widen the margin of monetary policy;

2010.8.27 The Federal Reserve released the qe2 signal;

On August 2010.8.31, 51.9, the domestic manufacturing PMI recorded 4, a significant rebound.Then it strengthened for [-] consecutive months.

November 10 - Adjustment.

It strengthened until November 10, when QE11 was officially launched. At the same time, because domestic CPI reached a level of about 2%, the market once again began to worry about the tightening of monetary policy.The commodity peaked again in the short term on November 4.4, and began to adjust for about a month. The National Standing Committee meeting in November 11 named commodities such as grain, oil, sugar, cotton, fertilizer, coal, diesel, and natural gas. On December 10, the monetary policy officially confirmed the shift from moderate easing to stability. By this time, commodities had already fallen due to early reaction. Around 10%, it resisted the fall after the news came out.

Different from the previous adjustment, during this adjustment, the economic fundamentals were still good. The Caixin PMI in October and November of 10 recorded 10 and 11.

Several key nodes are:

On October 2010.10.20, 0.25, the central bank raised interest rates by [-]%;

2010.10.27 The National Standing Committee named cotton speculation;

2010.11.3 The United States officially launched qe2;

On January 2010.11.15, 0.5, the central bank raised the reserve requirement ratio by [-]%;

On November 2010.11.1610, 4.4, cpi increased by [-]% year-on-year, a new high for the year;

The 2010.11.17 Standing Meeting named grain, oil, sugar and other commodities; the 2010.12.03 Politburo meeting confirmed the shift in monetary policy.

November 10 to February 11 - the second stage of the rise, the second wave and the peak.

It lasted until 2011. There was another wave of commodities. This was due to the crude oil supply in the Middle East. Finally, because the European Central Bank raised interest rates on April 4.17, the United States exited QE4 on April 27, and China raised interest rates again in 2, short-term In just 2011 months, interest rates were raised three times and six times. At this time, the economies of various countries also showed some weakness. The PMI of the leader China fell sharply in February 4.

As a result, commodities hit a big peak at this time when China, the United States and Europe were withdrawing from easing and the economy was declining at the margin.

Key nodes:

From 2010.12.26 to 2011.4.06, the central bank raised interest rates three times;

From 2010.11.29 to 2011.4.21, the central bank increased the reserve requirement 6 times;

During the 2011.2 Arab Spring, crude oil prices soared;

On February 2011.2.28, 51.7, Caixin manufacturing PMI dropped to [-] in a single month, the largest single-month decline since the financial crisis;

The 2011.4.13 National Standing Committee mentioned that inflation management has become the most urgent task;

2011.4.17 The European Central Bank raised its benchmark interest rate;

2011.4.27 The Federal Reserve released the end signal of qe2.

This is what happened a few days ago. Du Wenbo finished his review and looked at Xiao Jin, who was already dumbfounded.

Xiao Jin is really stupid. Du Wenbo, if he masters the things in his mind, hehe, he will be much more powerful than himself!

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