basketball scientist

Chapter 244 The deceptiveness of data (please subscribe, please support)

On the second day after the end of G1 of the finals, ABC, TNT, ESPN, NBATV and other NBA broadcast channels successively launched programs about the discussion and analysis of this year's finals.

"Judging from the matchups in the regular season, the Eagles have never been afraid of the Suns. Garnett is a higher-level inside player than Stoudemire. The higher the intensity of the game, the more obvious this is!"

"Ke Yan formed a young guard with his own brand last season, and then couldn't wait to dismantle it this season, in exchange for Garnett, Battier and a group of players who can fight tough battles. That's why he The reason for doing this!"

"If the Hawks can finally win the championship, KG should be able to rank in the top three power forwards. This is the best opportunity in his career to get close to Duncan!"

"Particular attention should be paid to the physical condition of the two teams. Throughout the season, KG played 76 games, averaging only 34.6 minutes per game, which was the lowest in his entire career. In the first three games of the playoffs, KG's The average playing time per game has been reduced to 31.5 minutes. This is not because his physical strength has declined, but to recharge his energy and prepare for the finals!"

"Compared with the Suns, the Eagles have a smoother path to the finals. This is also an inevitable phenomenon caused by the pattern of strong west and weak east. In the next few years, if this pattern cannot be changed, the strong teams in the East will have some A natural advantage. The Hawks are probably the biggest beneficiaries."

The Eagles won the game, and experts pointed out the advantages of the Eagles. Stoudemire, who had just played a [-]-[-] with Duncan, was defined as "a level behind Garnett", and his attributes were full after the fact.

Compared with other insiders, Garnett's popularity is so high that the American media is happy to praise him and often uses him to tie Duncan.However, if he really wins the "championship + double MVP" this season, Garnett is indeed barely qualified to be called "double 21" with Duncan.

. . . . . .

On June 6, the Eagles and the Suns played their second game at the Phillips Center.

"Welcome to the scene of the 06-07 NBA Finals, this is Atlanta Phillips Arena!"

"The game is about to start in half an hour!"

Kenny Smith's passionate commentary before the game ignited the atmosphere at the scene. All Eagles fans wore white jerseys, and the entire stadium completely turned into a sea of ​​white.

Outside the Phillips Center, the number of spectators reached a record high, and the entire street was densely packed. Everyone was expecting the Eagles to win G2 and head to Phoenix with a score of 2:0.

If it can be done, then under the 232 format, the Hawks will not end the season in Phoenix anyway.

This is also the first time that Keyan felt the cruelty brought by the 232 competition system.To be honest, if one of the two home games is lost, the three-game streak is really easy to be taken away by a wave. The Thunder team in 12 is a typical example!

Midfield jump ball.

Stoudemire jumped high and grabbed the first wave of possession.

Kenny Smith raised his arms and shouted: "The game starts, the Suns attack!"

Nash quickly held the ball across the half to look for opportunities, Paul pressed the whole court, and showed a very strong desire to win as soon as he came up.

Marion came up to pick and roll Nash, the Eagles switched defenses, Dior's defense was fierce, and Nash dribbled past him easily.Nash, who completed the breakthrough, was not sloppy at all, and directly made a two-point shot and made an accurate hit.

Don't talk about production, just talk about hit rate, Nash is also a well-deserved marksman!

Go to the Eagles offense.

The Suns adjusted their defensive formation, Marion defended Diaw, and Bell stuck to Joe Johnson.

Joe Johnson's height and strength are fully dominant. Paul made a gesture to pass the ball, and suddenly accelerated and went straight to the basket.

"This ball is here!" Yoga celebrated in advance.

On the scene, Paul yelled and fell to the ground. Marion stepped in to defend in time, blocked Paul's offense, and immediately gave the ball to Nash, who was on a fast break.

Nash and Richardson crossed positions, distracted Joe Johnson's defensive attention and scored an easy layup. (0:4)

Paul wanted to catch the Suns by surprise, and there was nothing wrong with this choice.The key is the change of the Suns on the defensive end. Ke Yan also saw some clues, but he is not sure, and wants to observe again.

The Eagles attacked. Garnett received the ball from the horns and launched an attack. He used his foot advantage to force Stoudemire to face the frame. After taking out the space, he shot from close range and failed to hit!Still adducting Marion to protect the rebound.

The Suns played positional battles. It was still Nash and Marion’s pick-and-roll that tore apart the Eagles’ defense. Richardson cut into the lane from the wing, drove to the hoop with the ball, and scored a dunk.

"Beep!" The referee whistled and Garnett fouled. . . . . .

After slapping his hand hard to express "dissatisfaction," Garnett regained his position and watched Richardson hit a free throw. (0:7)

"0:7, this start is too difficult for the Eagles! Coach Ke Yan should pay attention to the offense of the Suns."

The Eagles attacked, Paul advanced with the ball and handed the ball to Joe Johnson, Garnett moved to the free throw line to catch the ball looking for an opportunity, Paul and Battier on both sides cut into the baseline and ran back.

Joe Johnson squeezed Bell's defense to the free throw line and cooperated hand-in-hand with Garnett. While receiving the ball, he hit the ground and passed the ball just in front of Stoudemire's knee. Garnett received the ball, A violent dunk over Marion scored. (2:7)

"Strictly speaking, this ball can be called a foul." Zhang Lili said for the Eagles.

After a few rounds, Ke Yan can be considered to have confirmed some adjustments made by D'Antoni.

Marion withdrew from the front line against Joe Johnson and turned to defending Diaw, who had the relatively worst shooting ability of the Eagles, while taking into account the task of "protecting the frame" of the Suns.If Diola went out of the paint to make a shot, Marion would leave him alone, betting that his shot would not be accurate.

This defensive tactic is somewhat similar to the way the Pacers defended the Eagles earlier and let Diaw go. The difference is that Carlisle just released Diaw from outside the three-point line during rotation, while the Suns used Diaw from outside the penalty area. empty.

Bet on Dior's touch?D'Antoni dared to bet, but Ke Yan dared not mess around.He yelled a few words towards the court, the focus of the Eagles' offense shifted to the outside, and Ke Yan hoped to dismantle the Suns' defense from the outside in.

Whether it's Paul's small play after the pick-and-roll, or Joe Johnson's suppression of Bell, the Eagles should have a certain advantage in matchups.

However, in the game, the pair of backcourt double guns did not play the scene that Ke Yan hoped to see. The two shot 9 times and hit 4 of them.This efficiency is not very low, but considering that the opponent is the "offensively strong and defensively weak" Suns, it is not enough.

Also attacking from the outside, the Suns, Nash and Richardson played more efficiently.In the first quarter of the game, Nash made 12 of 7 shots and scored 17 points in a single quarter; Richardson also scored 8 points.

At 24:37, the Eagles trailed the Suns by 13 points in a single quarter!

"The outside line is overwhelmed, and the inside defense is not strong enough!"

"Hey Ke, hurry up and adjust your defense, don't use Dior, go to Milicic, let Garnett defend!"

"Dior's point is really a double-edged sword, but if this sword hurts himself, he should be replaced in time."

"Nash is not Billups, he can really kill people!"

The Eagles fans on the forum became more and more anxious, and all kinds of keyboard warriors wanted to teach Ke Yan to make substitutions and adjustments.

But many times, the team is not Ultraman Tiga, you can turn red if you transform into a powerful form, and turn blue if you change into an aerial form. Does Ke Yan know that arranging Garnett to help defend can effectively restrain Nash? ?Once Garnett's defense expanded too much, allowing Stoudemire and Nash to respond, the Eagles' defense pressure was even greater!

The offense of both sides is mainly launched from the outside, and the comparison is the firepower of Paul + Joe Johnson VS Nash + Richardson!When Paul can consume Nash on the offensive end, Keyan doesn't think Nash can continue to explode!

In the second quarter of the game, both sides sent a rotation lineup to play

Eagles rotation, Barea, Gibson, Battier, Diaw and Milicic.

Suns rotation lineup, Barbosa, Piakowski, Jalen Rose, Stoudemire, Kurt Thomas.

D'Antoni put Stoudemire, who didn't have many opportunities to perform in the first quarter, into the rotation, hoping that he would release his vitality in the rotation and help the Suns widen the point difference by the way.

But Ke Yan was sure that the Suns only had Kurt Thomas as an inside rotation player, and his speed was relatively slow. He resorted to a "double point guard" lineup to speed up the game rhythm and attack the Suns.

Barea pushed forward with the ball, facing Barbosa's defense, changed direction sharply from the left side and then pulled to the right side, followed by a very rhythmic change of direction in front of the body, shaking Barbosa half a step away, Barry Ya chose a mid-range shot.

"Shua!" On the way back to defense, Barea gave Gibson a high-five, hoping to pass his feeling to his teammates.

Barbosa advanced with the ball and passed the ball to Stoudemire who wanted the ball high.

Nash rested, Barbosa took the lead, and the Suns' offense inevitably became "simple". Staying on the line where Stoudemire broke through, caused Stoudemire's dribbling with the ball!

This ball was simple and rude from the start of the position, and it was clear that it was Stoudemire's strong attack. If it can't be defended, it will be called a problem!

The Eagles attacked, and it was Barea who took the initiative to ask Dior to do a pick-and-roll. After throwing off Barbosa, he quickly raised the gear. He rushed to the basket for a layup. Although the ball missed, it caused a foul by Kurt Thomas.

Barea made two free throws and helped the team narrow the point difference to 10 points as soon as he came on the court.

But turning around, Stoudemire and Barbosa completed the cooperation, opened Milicic's defense, wiped the board and scored. (27:39)

The Suns lost in G1, and both Marion and Barbosa are to blame.In this game, D'Antoni found the correct usage of Marion, but still couldn't find Barbosa's instructions.The Brazilian Lightning couldn't find a chance to push and counterattack. The shooting feel was only unstable in the regular season. It was really inaccurate in the playoffs, and it became more and more inaccurate as the opponent became stronger and stronger.

Stoudemire led the bench to deal with the Eagles, but he couldn't take advantage of it. The point difference between the two sides has been around 10 points.

Four minutes into the second quarter, Ke Yan replaced Paul, Joe Johnson, and Garnett in advance, and played a wave of 4:1 in one minute, narrowing the point difference to 7 points and forcing D'Antoni to follow closely behind. After that, Nash and other main players were brought back to the field. (0:3)

That is, from this time on, the situation on both sides has reversed.Stoudemire's physical fitness declined, and the offensive threat decreased accordingly. Garnett handed over the task of protecting the frame to Milicic, while he himself expanded the defensive area and actively cooperated with Paul to chase and intercept Nash!

On the offensive end, Garnett forced Stoudemire in the low post and made consecutive hits to help the Eagles overtake the score!

If it weren't for Nash's 3-pointer before halftime, the Suns would never end the second quarter with only three points behind. (58:55)

Regarding Nash's scoring ability, many people have a situation of "overcorrecting".Whether it is the regular season or the playoffs, Nash is an efficient shooter, but that is based on moderate production.Leaving aside his time with the Mavericks, let’s just say that Nash’s three seasons with the Suns have already faced the situation of “lose and go home”. In these seven games, Nash averaged 20.7 points, 4 rebounds, 9 assists.

Compared with 17+3+11 in the regular season, it can be said that Nash will indeed improve his scoring ability when his teammates can't play.But less than 21 points, maybe a little better than Paul, still a little far from the word "horror".

In the first half of the game, Nash's performance of scoring 25 points made Ke Yan doubt whether his decision to believe in this data was correct.The team's ability to reverse the situation depends more on the physical crisis caused by D'Antoni's deadly manipulation of Stoudemire.

But in the third quarter of the game, as shown by the data, Nash's "production" and "efficiency" were both declining. Facing Paul's increasingly tight defense, Nash resumed his "point guard" nature, passing the ball first !

However, with Garnett firmly suppressing Stoudemire, it was difficult for Marion and Richardson to digest these possessions, which also greatly affected the Suns' offensive efficiency.

After three quarters, the Eagles established a 12-point lead. (82:70)

In the fourth quarter of the game, Stoudemire's physical strength further declined, and the Eagles adjusted their defensive layout accordingly, imposing more confrontation on Nash.

The home field advantage is also on the Hawks' side. The referee has relaxed the scale and encouraged physical confrontation. No matter how hard it is for Nash to stroll in the Hawks penalty area and create murderous intentions, the Suns can't catch up with the score.

In the last 2 minutes of the game, the Eagles still led the Suns by 12 points. D'Antoni no longer made unnecessary struggles, replaced the main players, and conceded the loss.

In the end, the Eagles defeated the Suns 111:101, leading the finals 2:0!

此役,加内特18投8中,罚球6中5,砍下21分10篮板4助攻2盖帽的全面数据。

Joe Johnson is the main attack of the Eagles in this game. Although the performance in the first quarter was not good, but in the whole game, Joe Johnson made 20 of 10 shots, 3 of 1 three-pointers, 4 free throws, 25 points, 5 rebounds and 2 assists. The end performance is worthy of Keyan's trust.

Paul's situation is similar to that of Joe Johnson. He didn't play very well in the first quarter, but his subsequent performance was quite efficient. He made 13 of 5 shots, scored 16 points, 7 rebounds and 9 assists. He almost reached the first total of his career. Double double in the final.

Among the role players, Barea performed the best. He made 8 of 4 shots and 2 of 1 free throws in the game, scoring 9 points.But it happened to be the second quarter with Stoudemire leading the team to "reciprocate", this contribution is particularly important!

In an interview after the game, D'Antoni insisted that this game will not be the team's last game at the Phillips Center, and believes that compared to G1, the team's performance has improved in G2!

But why is this "rhetoric rhetoric" so cowardly?Also come back to the Phillips Center, which means that three home games will not allow the Eagles to steal two games, this. . . . . . .

Or don't write the three consecutive aways, just go straight to the Eagles 3:2 the Suns, and then go straight to G6?

The main reason is that D'Antoni really has no confidence now, and Stoudemire is really naturally restrained against Garnett.

You must know that there is such a catastrophe today, D'Antoni will trade Stoudemire for Garnett no matter what, not only completed his own reinforcement, but also disintegrated the threat of the Eagles by the way.

If only Joe Johnson. . . . . .Forget it, there is no regret medicine in the world!

When Ke Yan came to the press conference room, bursts of white light dazzled him dizzily.

"Kimi, please tell me about this match."

"This game was a very hard one for us in the playoffs. In the first half, I really doubted that we would lose. Fortunately, Barea made a contribution. His appearance affected the game. Fans Remember to praise him when you praise us on the Internet. In the second half of the game, the game returned to the routine I envisioned, and our victory should be taken for granted." After winning two games in a row, Ke Yan was more "arrogant" than before.

"We all know that you are a coach who is very good at playing away games. Do you have the confidence to win the cup directly in Phoenix?" The reporter said this was a bit provocative. The front foot D'Antoni said that he returned to Atlanta, and turned his head to stimulate Ke Yan. .

It's better to say one more sentence, "I want both games!", "At least win two games"

"Come on, this is the finals! Who can say that we will definitely win? And if you watch the game, you will find that in the past two games, it was not easy for us to win, and there were many twists and turns in the middle. The 2:0 advantage is indeed great But this is really not enough to make me take it lightly. If you want to celebrate, wait until you win the cup." Ke Yan's words were not only a response to the reporter's question, but also a reminder to his own players.

This round of the series is not over yet!

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