Age of Dreams

The outbreak of the financial crisis was not what outsiders saw. It was only when Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch collapsed that the dominoes were suddenly touched and triggered.

In fact, there has been an aura long ago, but many people can't see what's hidden behind it.

The first thing that started was not the subprime mortgage crisis that broke out at the beginning of last year. It was already the first stage of the financial crisis.

The first sign is actually the boom in residential real estate in the United States.

Why is American real estate so hot?

They have a population of just over 300 million, not even a fraction of the population of China, but the land area is about the same as that of China, and it is not the kind of territories Australia that can only survive on the corners of the sea. Their territories are more than The Chinese are more suitable for farming and living!

The boom and decline of real estate are all due to the imbalance between supply and demand.

When there are more people who need to buy a house, but the supply is only that small, then real estate will thrive and housing will be expensive. An example in this regard is Hong Kong.

When the supply of land is incredibly large, but the population in need of housing is small, then real estate must be in decline.

Real estate in the United States, if you say that New York, Los Angeles and other megacities are hot, but the real estate market in all parts of the United States is hot, which is very abnormal. ——You can’t see a few people in your small city. Why are apartments and villas so expensive? Why are housing prices so rising?

This can basically be regarded as a financial bubble, a huge bubble.

Since it is a bubble, it will burst one day and develop to the most maddening moment. It's basically when the bubble bursts.

It is precisely because American real estate has been hot for a full ten years that this is the most terrifying.

If it is hot for two or three years, then it will decline once, and then it will decline again, this is not a big problem.

When the bubble gets bigger and bigger. In the end, it burst out loudly. Such a huge power could not be borne by ordinary people, and the United States could not bear it either.

Therefore, the 2008 financial crisis will be so violent. To put it bluntly, it was gathered bit by bit.

It’s now August 2008. It was not far from the explosion of the bag in Xiao Qi's memory, and more signs were revealed.

On the first day of August, Germany’s largest bank, Deutsche Bank, announced the purchase of Deutsche Commerzbank, which was in a storm of huge losses in subordinated debt, for EUR 13.3 billion.

As the third largest commercial bank in Germany. Deutsche Commerzbank is definitely more than just a market value of 13.3 billion euros.

But the problem is that Wall Street, Xiao Qi, and others have been severely embarrassed by the huge amount of subordinated debt financial products involved. After more than a year, Deutsche Commerzbank’s losses have exceeded 70 billion euros. , There are more than 30 billion on the surface.

Such a huge loss cannot be borne by a commercial bank at all.

Banks are very rich, but most of them belong to customers. Countless small and medium customers and large customers have put their money in the bank for storage and investment, and they have the bank's abundant funds. In fact, they did not earn a lot of capital.

So if you don't save Deutsche Commercial Bank, it will completely collapse!

No country’s financial system can allow its own country’s large commercial banks to collapse, even if they are not China, and these banks are not state-owned banks.

Because these commercial banks involve the interests of hundreds of thousands, millions, or even tens of millions of ordinary people. These ordinary people are the foundation of the country, once their fundamental interests are harmed. I dare not say that this country is ruined, but at least the country’s finances are completely ruined.

This is a time of peace. Finance to a large extent represents the strength of a country. One of the most important strengths of a country is gone. How can there be a stable political power and a stable environment?

Therefore, on this kind of principled issue, there should be no chaos at all, and no such large banks can be allowed to fail. ——Isn't the large number of banknotes printed by the Federal Reserve given to American banks and investment banks? It doesn't matter if the whole world scolds them, because they know what face is and what is lining.

Now Deutsche Bank is doing what the Fed will do in advance.

It's just that the Germans have more face than the Americans, so they will use this method to buy to help solve the crisis.

Once Deutsche Commerzbank is acquired, it will not only do no good for Deutsche Bank to buy the bank, but will incur debts of tens of billions of euros for it. The phrase "asking for money" is used here, but it is not a derogatory term. .

Germany is the largest economy in Europe and one of the main supporters of the European Union.

Even their third-largest commercial bank can't support it, let alone commercial banks in other small and medium-sized countries. Since July, it has been revealed that more than 6 large and small banks have suffered losses due to subordinated debt. Less is still a huge loss.

The U.S. can still hide it for the time being, but the EU can't hide it. For a time, the central banks and European Central Banks of many countries have begun various rescue measures.

In fact, this is not the first time they have encountered this kind of thing in the past two years. From 2007 to the present, more than 20 large and small banks have fallen into crisis, and several commercial banks in small countries have simply gone bankrupt.

So the big guys also feel that this is just a normal phenomenon, and I'm afraid it will be fine if we get over the difficulties.

At the same time, the banking and financial industry in Asia is actually the same chaos.

Just two days after Deutsche Bank announced the acquisition of Deutsche Commercial Bank, Japan’s Mitsubishi Financial Group announced the acquisition of Sakura Tobu Bank, which had suffered a huge loss. The Bank of Japan announced an emergency injection of 400 billion yen to Musashi Commercial Bank, which announced that it had entered the regeneration process. Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, the second largest commercial bank, issued a communiqué that it lost more than 600 billion yen in the first half of this year, a record high in 50 to 50 years.

Ok.

Of course, the main losses of these three banks in Japan are financial derivatives on Wall Street.

Among these financial derivatives, subordinated bonds are the ones that pit them the most. They were originally thought to be high-interest and value-preserving wealth management products, but they have torn off the veil of tenderness, pitting them into ecstasy. Desire is really all of Japan. Banks can't even imagine.

The worst suffered is naturally Sumitomo Mitsui Banking, which is the worst of Xiao Qi. What they announced is only a part of the losses, and a small part of them have been overdue or future losses through various book methods. Finally, there is no To the point of shocking.

But this is the case. Xiao Qi earned more than US$3 billion from Sumitomo Mitsui Banking alone, second only to Deutsche Commercial Bank, and there will be more in the future.

As for the Sakura Tobu Bank and Musashi Commercial Bank, these two unlucky urges, they did not have their share, but voluntarily ran up to ask for the purchase of subordinated bonds, and the loss was so much, it was reasonable.

It's a pity that the Japanese are still more cautious, and no Germans can buy as much. Sumitomo Mitsui is Japan's second largest commercial bank, and the Japanese are even less likely to let it collapse.

Otherwise, wouldn't Xiao Qi be a big proud credit for breaking Sumitomo Mitsui Banking?

Through financial means, the Japanese do not know how much they have deployed in China or how many Chinese enterprises have been suppressed. If they can cut off one of their hands, it will be extremely useful for our own industrial development and commercial development. Good thing.

But this matter is not in a hurry.

The financial crisis will continue for many years, and Japan, the most unlucky country, had a super tsunami and a nuclear leak crisis in 2011, enough for Xiao Qi to weaken the Japanese economic strength time and time again!

Speaking of Japan, I have to mention the jal Japan Airlines that Xiao Qi thought of on his way to the United States.

Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. is now struggling.

They have been implementing the policy of storing oil prices 8 months in advance. The funds invested in oil futures exceeded 30 billion U.S. dollars. At any rate, they bought more than 3 billion U.S. dollars in a few days before July 11. When the oil futures of the United States encountered the US Federal Court's move, the eyes were suddenly stared.

The price of oil falls at the rate of a waterfall, and it drops by 20% in half a month. By the beginning of August, the lowest price has dropped to US$108.28, which is lower than in the previous life.

This means that Japan Airlines lost 9 billion U.S. dollars in such a month alone, and its pants are almost lost!

Seeing such a large oil price loss, Japan Airlines was also weak in the stock market. After five consecutive trading days of plummeting, it now ushered in 12 trading days plummeting, the market value directly shrank and evaporated 28%, and the entire company almost collapsed directly. .

Compared with them, ANA, Japan’s second-largest airline, can only say that the situation is slightly better, but they also implemented the 6-month oil price storage policy ~www.wuxiaspot.com~ and now they have lost more than 4 billion U.S. dollars for the whole year. The loss is expected to exceed 10 billion!

Japan is just these two large airlines. They fell from the top ten in Asia to almost collapsed, and everyone was caught off guard.

As the only insider, Xiao Qi was just sitting on the sidelines.

Do you think now is your most difficult period?

Dream it!

Now is just the beginning!

By the end of the year, when the price of oil plummets to around US$45, you will know what it means to cry without tears!

No matter how much you Japanese like to die, it is absolutely unsustainable in this kind of crashing atmosphere.

At that time, it is time to start cutting meat slowly!

Fairy Air, should take this opportunity to usher in a big take-off! To be continued