Bringing the Railway to Daming

In the blink of an eye, several months passed.

On the third day of August in the twenty-fifth year of Hongwu, Liu Kuan rushed to the cross-river bridge early to wait as he did in previous years. Unfortunately, he waited for the entire morning but the strange fog did not appear.

Liu Kuan was not disappointed. He went to court, took up his post and did his work as usual.

A few days after August 15th, after a morning court session, Liu Kuan was about to leave Fengxian Hall to go to the Tiangongyuan to take up his post when a young eunuch approached and whispered, "Liu Yuanzheng, the emperor wants you to stay and attend the next military meeting."

"I understand." Liu Kuan nodded.

Although Liu Kuan was not a member of the Grand Council, he was often named by Zhu Yuanzhang to participate in the Grand Council meetings, so he was not surprised by such things.

After the other court officials left in order, only Zhu Biao, Liu Kuan and several "Military Grand Councillors" were left in Fengxian Hall - the Military Grand Councillors were just a common name in the court and the public, and the actual titles were temporary assignments such as "Assisting in Military Affairs" or "Walking in the Military Affairs Office", which was equivalent to working part-time as the emperor's staff and could be dismissed by the emperor at any time with just a word.

Today's "Grand Councillors" include Xu Da, Tang He, Minister of Personnel Zhan Hui, Minister of Finance Yu Xin, and then there is the rising civil official Xia Yuanji, who was appointed as the "Grand Councilor" from his official position as a Langzhong in the Ministry of Revenue's Department of Commerce.

As for Li Shanchang, he is now 89 years old. Although he is still alive, his health has long been failing. A few years ago, he kept dozing off while participating in court meetings, military meetings and other meetings. Therefore, three years ago, Zhu Yuanzhang allowed him to retire and return to his hometown to enjoy his old age.

I heard that he is now bedridden. Even though the medical level in the Ming Dynasty has improved a lot compared to ten years ago, and there are many famous doctors in the capital, there is still no way to save him.

According to what Liu Kuan heard, Li Shanchang would most likely not survive this winter.

The Grand Council was equivalent to Zhu Yuanzhang's personal assistant group, so the Grand Council meetings had no rules and were very casual.

Zhu Yuanzhang said, "Xia Yuanji, tell me about what you reported earlier."

At the age of 28, Xia Yuanji was already a doctor and had even been appointed to the Grand Council, becoming one of the "Grand Councilors." However, at this time, he wore a solemn expression, without any trace of arrogance or complacency.

Hearing this, he pulled out a prepared notebook and said, "According to the Commerce Department's survey of important industrial and commercial prefectures such as Yingtian, Suzhou, Hangzhou, and Songjiang this year, the prices of cotton cloth and even silk have continued to fall since last year's autumn harvest."

"As of May this year, in some places, the market price of cloth has dropped to two-thirds of what it was three years ago, or even close to half!"

"In addition, since the beginning of spring this year, all kinds of cloth have begun to accumulate in official textile mills under the jurisdiction of the imperial court and local governments, and the same is true for private textile mills."

"Since this summer, private textile factories have ceased production and laid off textile workers. After the autumn harvest, such incidents have become increasingly frequent, leaving many people unemployed."

"Here is a table of figures compiled by the Department of Commerce on the aforementioned matters. You may take a look at it."

After saying that, Xia Yuanji took out several prepared forms and had the eunuchs in the hall hand them to Xu Da and others.

As for Zhu Yuanzhang, he naturally had it a long time ago.

Xia Yuanji received several years of modern education before entering officialdom, so Liu Kuan was not surprised that he would study state affairs by conducting investigations and compiling tables.

However, after reading the survey form from the Department of Commerce, Liu Kuan still felt a little shocked, and his expression became extremely serious.

As for the remaining few people, their expressions were different.

Tang He looked puzzled and asked, "Doctor Xia, the price of cloth has been falling year after year. Doesn't that mean it's easier for ordinary people to get dressed? Isn't that a good thing?"

Without waiting for Xia Yuanji to reply, Xu Da said, "It's easier for common people to get clothes, but the textile factories are losing money. If the textile factories lose money and lay off employees, doesn't that mean some common people are suffering?"

Tang He said, "If you get laid off from the factory, you can find something else to do. If you really can't do it, can't you go home and farm? If you don't have land, the worst that can happen is that you can go out to sea and make a living."

Xu Da looked speechless and said, "Aren't you just trying to be argumentative?"

Xia Yuanji said, "Duke Xin may not know that factory wages are quite high these days. Take textile factories for example. Ordinary people can earn several guan (currency) per month working there, and can save tens of guan (currency) per year."

"But if you work hard all year round, even if you have a bumper harvest, you can only earn a dozen or so strings of cash at most. How can ordinary people return to their hometowns and farm peacefully after they have tasted the sweetness of working in a factory?"

As for the situation of going out to sea, Xia Yuanji was too lazy to talk about it.

Although there's a trend in the Ming Dynasty to venture out to sea, who would be willing to take the risk unless they're unhappy at home or have lofty ambitions? Didn't you see that Prince Lu disappeared in a storm and hasn't been found to this day?
At this time, Zhu Yuanzhang, who was sitting on the dragon throne, said, "Liu Kuan, tell me what you think."

Liu Kuan first bowed to Zhu Yuanzhang, then turned to Xia Yuanji and asked, "Doctor Xia, is this continuous decline in prices and product squeeze only happening in the textile industry, or are there other industries as well?"

Xia Yuanji said, "The Commerce Department has indeed conducted similar surveys on other industries. The results show that, in addition to cloth, ceramics, paper, and ironware have also experienced some price declines and product backlogs, though the situation isn't as severe as with cloth."

He hesitated, then continued, "Through my investigation of the Commerce Department's archives and data, I've discovered that while Ming cloth prices have been declining since ten years ago, the decline has been minimal. Whether it's government-run factories or private weaving workshops, there's rarely been a large backlog of goods." "The accelerated decline in cloth prices actually began in the 23rd year of the Hongwu reign, when the court permitted private individuals to purchase steam spinning machines, steam looms, and other machinery for production."

"Therefore, I believe that the current problems in the Ming Dynasty's textile industry are mainly caused by the excessive number of steam textile mills opened by private individuals in the past two years."

After listening to Xia Yuanji's words, Liu Kuan fell into deep thought.

At this time, the Minister of Personnel, Zhan Hui, said, "Your Majesty, when we first discussed whether to sell steam engines to the public, many ministers in the court disagreed."

"As expected, after private merchants were able to purchase steam engines, they showed no restraint in their pursuit of profit, wantonly opening textile mills, adding looms, and producing cloth. This has led to the current situation where cloth prices have dropped by more than half, and there is a difficult backlog of goods."

"I believe that the current solution is to first prohibit the private sector from purchasing steam engines and then order some private textile mills to close down. Only then can the textile industry's problems be resolved."

After saying that, Zhan Hui deliberately glanced at Liu Kuan, but found that Liu Kuan still looked thoughtful.

At this time, Zhu Biao said: "Although what Minister Zhan said is a way to solve the problems of the textile industry, it is too negative."

"The reason the imperial court decided to open up steam engines to the public for purchase and use was to use them to promote production in industries like textiles, and to further elevate the level of industry and commerce in the Ming Dynasty."

"If we ban civilian use of steam engines simply because we encounter some difficulties, wouldn't that be tantamount to allowing Ming Dynasty industry and commerce to stagnate?"

Zhan Hui was a little surprised. He didn't expect that Zhu Biao would be the first to refute him.

Then he remembered that it was Zhu Biao who proposed opening up steam engines to the public two years ago, so it was no wonder.

After coming to his senses, he said, "Your Highness the Crown Prince said that if civilians were to be banned from using steam engines, industry and commerce would stagnate. That's an exaggeration. In my opinion, it would only slow down development, right?"

"Although the development was slow, it was more stable, and we wouldn't have the disaster we see today where cloth prices plummeted and there was a backlog of goods that was difficult to sell."

Zhu Biao wanted to say something else, but was stopped by Zhu Yuanzhang.

"Liu Kuan, what do you think?"

After being called by Zhu Yuanzhang, Liu Kuan finally came to his senses. He glanced around at everyone before bowing to Zhu Yuanzhang and saying, "Your Majesty, the difficulties facing the textile industry in the Ming Dynasty can be said to be inevitable difficulties in the development of industry and commerce."

"Right now, this problem is only serious in the textile industry, but as long as Ming Dynasty's industry and commerce continue to develop, sooner or later other industries will also begin to experience similar problems."

"I call this problem or phenomenon 'overcapacity' - if it's not handled properly, it could very well lead to a depression in the Ming Dynasty's economy, and even a decline in industrial and commercial standards."

At the end of his speech, Liu Kuan looked extremely serious.

Overcapacity?

Economic depression?

Although Zhu Yuanzhang, Zhu Biao and others heard these two terms from Liu Kuan for the first time, they realized from Liu Kuan's tone that this was probably a very serious problem, and it might even serve as a "lesson for future generations."

Zhu Yuanzhang then asked, "What caused this overproduction?"

Liu Kuan said: "First, it is naturally because after the productivity increased, the relevant merchants opened factories and expanded production capacity in pursuit of profits."

"The second reason is the lack of market development, or even the blockage of trade routes."

Upon hearing this, Zhu Biao frowned and asked, "How can we solve this kind of problem? We can't really ban civilian use of steam engines, can we?"

Zhu Biao knew very well that only by allowing the public to use steam engines on a large scale and allowing steam engines to enter all walks of life could the Ming Dynasty truly enter the steam age and start the first industrial revolution.

This was something he had discussed with Liu Kuan.

But now that he is faced with the problem of "overcapacity", he can't help but worry that Liu Kuan will agree with Zhan Hui's suggestion to slow down the pace of Ming Dynasty's entry into the steam age, or even suspend industrial development.

Of course Liu Kuan would not do that.

Seeing Zhu Biao's concern, he said, "Of course we can't prohibit civilians from using steam engines. If we do, wouldn't that be like 'throwing the baby out with the bathwater'?"

Zhan Hui frowned, looked at Liu Kuan, and asked, "If civilian use of steam engines is not prohibited, could it be that Director Liu has a better way to solve this problem?" (End of this chapter)