Rise of Empires: Spain.

Chapter 482 The arrow is on the string
As the major European powers gradually released their financial data from the previous year, even an ordinary European citizen knew that a super war was imminent.

The reason is simple: no major power can sustain such enormous military expenditures for several years. When these major powers can no longer hold on, they will have no choice but to resort to war as the only way to stop the arms race from continuing.

A report by the Spanish newspaper El Soleil, which interviewed citizens of Madrid and Barcelona, ​​two major Spanish cities, revealed that over 60% of the respondents believed the Great War would occur in 1912, over 30% believed it would occur in 1913, and only 10% believed it might be delayed until 1914.

It's not just the Spanish people; most people in Europe share this view, and even governments across Europe generally believe that the peace between France and Germany can only last for a maximum of two years.

Discussions about war plans were also taking place within the German and French governments.

The war plans of various countries are not formulated after the outbreak of war, but rather are very detailed and meticulous offensive plans long before the outbreak of war.

The German offensive plan was devised by Count Schlieffen, the former Chief of the General Staff, who claimed that Paris could be captured in eight weeks.

The plan was quite simple. Count Schlieffen boldly predicted that France would deploy its main forces in the Alsace and Lorraine regions, which had been seized by Germany after the Franco-Prussian War, and where the main animosity between France and Germany was concentrated.

With France primarily attacking Alsace and Lorraine, Germany only needs to deploy two or three army groups to defend in that direction, concentrating the majority of its remaining forces on the right flank, and using the Low Countries as a route to quickly capture Paris.

In this way, the German army was not only able to bypass the main direction of the French army's attack, but also to threaten the flanks of the French army.

Once news of the fall of Paris reaches the French army, it will surely collapse instantly, just as it did in the Franco-Prussian War.

Because this attack plan was devised by Count Schlieffen, it is also known as the Schlieffen Plan. Although Count Schlieffen had passed away, the German General Staff continued to use the Schlieffen Plan as Plan Number One for the invasion of France, because his former assistant Moltke the Younger had taken over as Chief of the General Staff.

However, since the new Chief of the General Staff of Germany had become Moltke the Younger, it was impossible for him to simply adopt Schlieffen's plan unchanged. Wouldn't that make the new Chief of the General Staff Moltke the Younger seem incompetent?

Under Moltke's strong advocacy, the German General Staff revised some details of the offensive plan, reducing the right wing, which originally had 85% of the troops on the western front, to 60%, and concentrating the remaining 25% on the left wing.

Compared to the original, somewhat reckless Schlieffen Plan, the revised offensive plan appeared much more conservative. Count Schlieffen concentrated the vast majority of Germany's forces on the Western Front, and further concentrated the majority of those forces on the right flank, leaving Alsace-Lorraine and the eastern front against Russia extremely vulnerable.

After Moltke the Younger's modifications, although the strength of the right flank of the Western Front was weakened, the strength of the left flank was strengthened, ensuring that the majority of the German army remained concentrated on the Western Front.

In hindsight, this adjustment cost Germany the initiative. But for Germany at that time, it was perfectly normal for Chief of the General Staff Moltke the Younger to make slight adjustments to the offensive plan.

There was no objection from the Germans to the adjustment of the offensive plan. They firmly believed that the powerful German Imperial Army would conquer Paris in a short time and that the war would end as quickly as the Franco-Prussian War.

Within the German government, the ongoing dialogue between Kaiser Wilhelm II and the current Chancellor of the German Empire, Theobald von Berthemann-Holweg, is not related to any changes to the offensive plan; rather, they are discussing the timing of the outbreak of war.

"Your Majesty, the French government is accelerating the expansion of its army. If there are no unforeseen circumstances, war is very likely to break out this year," German Chancellor Theobald von Berthemann-Holweg said solemnly to Kaiser Wilhelm II.

The current situation presents a precarious predicament for both Germany and France, one where action is inevitable.

Germany, not intending to start a war, faces the risk of being declared war on by France. Rather than saying that Germany and France want to ignite a war, it's more accurate to say that both sides have reached the brink of a precipice and must fight to the death, or they will both perish.

"The General Staff has already revised the attack plan. If we must fight the French, then I think now is the time." Kaiser Wilhelm II leaned slightly, concealing his congenitally atrophied left arm, and tapped the table lightly with his right hand, speaking with an air of confidence.

William II's congenital physical defects made him sensitive and insecure, but given that he ascended the throne at a young age, he inevitably became somewhat arrogant and domineering.

This also made Wilhelm II an extremely contradictory person. On the one hand, he expressed his intention to befriend Britain by participating in two British funerals (Queen Victoria and Edward VII), while on the other hand, he recklessly offended the British government and people with his words.

Fortunately, the British royal family did not hold a grudge against Wilhelm II for his few words, and at this time the relationship between the British royal family and the German royal family was still relatively good.

On the one hand, the British royal family's surname is still Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, which is a pure German surname.

On the other hand, Wilhelm II's mother, Princess Victoria, was Queen Victoria's eldest daughter, and there is a close marriage relationship between the British royal family and the German royal family.

These factors contributed to the good relationship between Britain and Germany. If it weren't for Germany's frantic naval buildup before World War I, which made Britain feel threatened, Britain might not have chosen to help France, its long-time enemy.

"Your Majesty, should we consider the attitudes of Britain and Spain? If Britain and Spain choose to intervene after the outbreak of war, the situation could very well turn in a more unfavorable direction for us." Looking at the confident Kaiser Wilhelm II, German Chancellor Obard von Bertmann-Holweg said with some concern.

Regardless of the relative strengths of the Central Powers and the Allied Powers, as Chancellor of the German Empire, Obard von Berthemann-Holweg knew that Germany would be under the greatest pressure after the outbreak of war.

Although both Germany and Austria-Hungary needed to fight on two fronts, Germany faced the two superpowers, France and Russia. Austria-Hungary only needed to contend with a portion of the main Russian army, the small country of Serbia, and also had the support of Bulgaria and the Ottoman Empire, so the actual pressure was not significant.

Especially on the Western Front, Germany had to face the French army's offensive alone. Although France was in decline at this time, the German Empire was the most powerful nation.

The problem is that even a weakened giant is still a giant; France remains the undisputed second-strongest land power in Europe, and Germany needs to exercise extreme caution when dealing with it.

What worries Obald von Berthemann-Holweg even more is that, in addition to the two major military blocs, two other superpowers are eyeing the situation in Europe.

If either Britain or Spain intervened in the European war, it could have extremely adverse effects on Germany.

For this reason, before the war officially broke out, it was necessary to ensure that both Britain and Spain remained neutral, or to ensure that Germany could gain the support of one of them, so as to remain invincible.

Upon hearing Prime Minister Obald von Bertmann-Holweg's inquiry, Kaiser Wilhelm II nodded, but showed no concern. He smiled and replied, "We should thank the Spanish government. If it weren't for their proposal of the Neutrality Treaty, we probably wouldn't have had the full confidence to deal with any potential interference from Britain and Spain."

Now that both Britain and Spain have signed a neutrality treaty, their possibility of intervening in the European war has been minimized.

Of course, we cannot let our guard down. We may not be able to win over Spain, but we can still try to win over Britain.

The Foreign Office can contact the British government to ensure that Britain remains neutral if Spain does not intervene, and sides with us if Spain does intervene.

If necessary, we can make concessions on the naval front. As long as we ensure that our war is free from external interference, the German army will capture Paris in a short time, and we may be able to hold a military parade outside Versailles to declare our strength to Europe.

Germany was still quite confident about the war with France; their only concern was British intervention.

Historically, the German government had attempted to mediate relations with the British government, but with little success. They misjudged Britain's choice, expecting it to remain neutral in the World War, only to find Britain siding with France. The situation was somewhat different now, as both Britain and Spain declared neutrality early on due to the Neutrality Treaty proposed by Spain.

While there is a possibility of breaking the treaty, given the current good relationship between the British and German royal families, it is unlikely that Britain would break the treaty for France and stand against Germany.

While Spain might support France, if Spain does, Britain, for the sake of its regional balance policy, will most likely support Germany as well.

For this reason, Kaiser Wilhelm II was very optimistic about the current situation in Europe. He even believed that the German army would declare Germany's strength with a resounding victory, just like in the Franco-Prussian War.

Upon hearing Kaiser Wilhelm II's reply, Obard von Berthemann-Holweg nodded, no longer objecting to the General Staff's war plan.

In reality, even if he had objections, it wouldn't have made any difference.

Despite being the German Chancellor, he doesn't have much say in such military operations. German military operations are entirely subject to the orders of the High Command, and the German government serves the High Command.

While Germany was discussing the timing of the war, the French government was also having similar discussions.

The current French President Armand Farie, French Prime Minister Joseph Cayo, and Chief of the General Staff Joseph Jacques César Joffre also had a lengthy conversation.

Unlike Germany, the French government leadership does not have such a strong pro-war stance. Both President Armand Falier and Prime Minister Joseph Cayo are, in fact, relatively moderate doves.

The problem is that at this time, both the French military and the public were very much looking forward to this war with Germany.

The French people will never forget the hatred from more than 40 years ago, nor will they forget the German Empire that was built by stepping on the heads of all French people.

The military was even more eager. Whether it was Joffre, who had just become the Chief of the General Staff, or other young and middle-aged officers with few merits, they all longed for this war to accumulate their own merits.

The French government is caught in the middle and has no choice but to go with the flow, or it will be overthrown by public opinion.

It is comforting that, although Joffre had only recently become the French Chief of the General Staff, he had already integrated and revised the various plans previously prepared by the French General Staff for the invasion of Germany, and submitted a new plan to the French government that appeared to be reasonable.

This plan, known internally in France as Plan 17, was seen as France's hope for a swift victory over Germany after the outbreak of war.

For this reason, the French president and prime minister, as a whole, still hold high hopes for the war.

As fate would have it, Joffre's Plan No. 17, just as the Germans had predicted, concentrated its forces to attack Alsace-Lorraine, aiming to force Germany into a strategic defensive posture by capturing Alsace-Lorraine.

This is somewhat of a coincidence. In fact, neither the German nor the French government knew the other's intentions or direction of attack. Schlieffen's attack plan did indeed guess the French's thoughts, but unfortunately, the most important troop deployment had already been modified by Moltke the Younger.

"Your Excellency President, Your Excellency Prime Minister," Chief of the General Staff Joffre said confidently, looking at the two supreme commanders of French political power before him. "The French army is fully prepared for war. Our soldiers are looking forward to the war. The German army will only become a few lines in the French soldiers' record of merit."

If war breaks out in the middle of this year, I am confident that the soldiers will be able to go home for Christmas and enjoy a happy holiday without any disruption.

Neither French President Armand Farrier nor Prime Minister Joseph Cayo had a military background, and they lacked their own judgment on military matters, relying instead on the attitude of Chief of the General Staff Joffre to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the French army.

Seeing Joffre's confident demeanor, the two men also believed that the French army would win the war, and they couldn't help but relax a lot.

Now that this war has become an unavoidable one, the next step is simple: support the military at all costs and win this war. That's all.

"Does the military need any more support?" French President Armand Farrier asked Joffre with a smile.

If he could lead France to victory in the war against Germany during his term, it would not only greatly enhance his personal prestige but also make his political career even more illustrious.

For a competent politician, there is no time to miss an opportunity to enhance his political resume, especially in the final moments of his political career.

Armand Farrell, the French president born in 1841, is now 70 years old. If he misses this opportunity, he may not get another term as president of France.

It was for this reason that Armand Farrier decided to seize this opportunity, which could be seen as a perfect ending to his long political career.

Upon hearing the president's question, Joffre did not hesitate at all and immediately replied, "Of course, Your Excellency."

Although the military is convinced that France will ultimately prevail, such confidence alone is not enough. We need better weaponry, more soldiers, and more adequate logistical support.

To force Germany to shift from offense to defense, we would need to commit a large number of troops along the Alsace-Lorraine line. This would leave our current troop numbers insufficient to defend other areas.

I recommend that we expand the total number of troops to over one million this year and ensure that our reserves can be mobilized at any time, so as to have a greater chance of winning in war.

France has learned from its mistakes and will not be blindly confident in its military.

The reason for the defeat in the Franco-Prussian War was that the French army was overconfident and ignored the fact that its weaponry had fallen behind that of Prussia.

The French army today will not repeat the mistakes of the past. As the French Chief of the General Staff, Joffre also hopes that the French army can be fully equipped with new weapons and that the number of artillery and machine guns in the army can be increased to improve the firepower of the French army.

Only in this way can the overall combat effectiveness of the French army be improved, and only then can it be compared with the German army, which is known for its combat power.

Upon hearing Joffre's request, French President Armand Farrier nodded and turned his gaze to Prime Minister Joseph Cayo.

Joseph Cayo understood the meaning behind the president's gaze. He then looked at Chief of the General Staff Joffre, nodded, and said, "No problem, Your Excellency Chief of the General Staff. The government will allocate additional military budget as soon as possible to help our army replace its weapons and equipment and expand its weapons and equipment inventory."

Regarding the reserve force, we will also urge reserves in all regions to be prepared to respond to any potential war.

With the government's support, Chief of the General Staff Joffre was full of confidence and told the President and Prime Minister with great confidence: "I assure you that France will win the final victory in this war, and our army will flatten Berlin. You are welcome to come to Berlin to attend the parade."

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(End of this chapter)