Rise of Empires: Spain.

Chapter 453 On the Future of Portugal

Although the Anglo-Spanish War lasted only a few months, and both Britain and Spain tacitly limited the scale of the war.

However, the war still caused Spain's total fiscal expenditure to rise steadily throughout 1904, far exceeding its total fiscal revenue for the year, which was quite rare.

This phenomenon is quite rare in Spain today. Since Prime Minister Primo completed his reforms, the Spanish government's total revenue has always exceeded its expenditures; in other words, Spain has a fiscal surplus every year.

According to statistics from the Ministry of Finance, Spain's total fiscal revenue in 1904 was approximately 16.109 billion pesetas, while total fiscal expenditure reached a staggering 17.864 billion pesetas, resulting in a fiscal deficit of 1.755 million pesetas.

Although the fiscal deficit looks a bit exaggerated, neither Carlos nor the Spanish government is worried about the fiscal situation last year.

On the one hand, Spain received huge reparations after the war, which were far less than the amount Spain spent on the war.

On the other hand, Spain's military spending can effectively stimulate economic growth. Whether it's the money invested in building battleships for the navy or in purchasing weapons and equipment for the army and distributing them to soldiers, it all eventually flows back into society.

Both naval battleships and army weapons and ammunition increase steel consumption. Steel, in turn, affects many other industries, contributing to the prosperity and growth of various sectors in Spain.

Needless to say, the money distributed to soldiers will eventually be spent, which will also stimulate the growth of the Spanish economy.

Although the total fiscal revenue in 1904 was lower than that in 1903, the reduction will certainly be made up this year.

Several months have now passed since 1905, and the Spanish Ministry of Finance has made some estimates of the total fiscal revenue for the year.

According to the Ministry of Finance's forecast, total fiscal revenue for the whole year should reach a new high, while total fiscal expenditure will also decrease significantly, since the war ended at the end of last year.

Although the war affected the Spanish government's fiscal revenue and expenditure, it did not have much impact on the average annual income of the Spanish people.

In 1904, Spain's per capita annual income officially surpassed 400 pesetas. By the beginning of 1905, Spain's per capita annual income had reached approximately 406 pesetas and was still growing.

Although it falls short compared to the established powers that made significant strides in the First Industrial Revolution, it is still better than some of the worst, and for those countries with weaker economies among the great powers, or those that cannot be considered great powers at all, Spain's per capita annual income is quite good.

At least the Portuguese next door are already very envious. Their per capita annual income was originally less than half that of Spain, and now it has dropped to nearly a third.

In addition, last year's war affected the lives of most of Portugal's population. If it weren't for the large amount of food and other supplies exported by Spain to Portugal, most of the Portuguese would probably still be starving, let alone meeting other material needs.

Currently, the Portuguese people can only pin their hopes on cooperation between the Spanish and Portuguese governments. According to disclosed information, capital led by the Spanish royal family will invest in building factories in many parts of Portugal to help the country better develop its economy and expand its industrial scale.

Portugal has a considerable land area, but it doesn't have many industries that can be its pillar industries. Although Portugal has vast plains, its grain production is only a fraction of Spain's.

Spanish capital has three objectives for investing in Portugal. The first is to invest in the textile industry, which is arguably the only industry in Portugal with a certain foundation.

The second objective is to invest in the grape industry, including the production, assembly, and sales of wine, all of which are considered part of the grape industry.

The third target is Portugal's timber industry. These are the only three industries that are barely worth investing in; the remaining industries don't offer much investment value, and Portugal's population isn't large enough to support more industries.

Spanish capital investment in Portugal comes at a price. First, to facilitate this investment, the Portuguese government needs to open up authorization for railway operation and construction.

These railways connecting the newly invested industries were almost all built with Spanish capital, and will naturally be operated by Spanish capital for a long time to come.

This tactic is somewhat similar to that of United Fruit Company in the United States, which actually achieves disguised economic penetration by controlling industries and railways.

Although this approach is out in the open, the Portuguese government has no recourse. If they reject Spanish investment, they are essentially harming Portuguese interests.

After all, these invested companies will prioritize hiring Portuguese people in the future, which will not only provide a large number of job opportunities for Portuguese people, but also significantly increase their income.

The continuous growth of the average annual income of Spaniards is due to the continuous investment and construction of various types of enterprises and factories, which has provided Spaniards with ample job opportunities and higher incomes than before.

The Portuguese now have the opportunity to achieve the same goals that the Spanish once achieved, and naturally, they don't want their wonderful lives to be hindered, even if it's the Portuguese government that's doing so.

In just over half a year, Spain made the Portuguese realize just how happy the Spanish people were.

With a large influx of capital into Portugal, the country's economic environment has improved significantly. In the past six months, many factories invested in by Spanish capital have been successfully built and have employed a large number of Portuguese workers.

Because of their political mission, Spanish capital was quite generous. Those Portuguese who successfully entered Spanish factories could easily double their annual income, much to the envy of those who didn't.

In particular, after the construction of numerous factories invested in by Spanish capital, how to get a job in these factories has become a major source of distress for many Portuguese.

Fortunately, the hiring requirements of Spanish factories are not strict, and most Portuguese people can easily meet them.

These Spanish factories do not have any educational requirements for their workers. Once these workers officially join the factory, the factory can send them to Spain for short-term technical training to help them quickly master some technical knowledge related to their positions, addressing the issue of their relatively low educational level.

Of course, since the training was conducted domestically, Spanish was used during the training process. These workers will also need to learn Spanish to master these skills more quickly.

The differences between Portuguese and Spanish are not significant, and many Portuguese people can understand spoken Spanish. Therefore, it is relatively easy for these Portuguese people to learn Spanish; even illiterate individuals can easily master the language for communication.

In the past six months, the Spanish factories have successfully recruited tens of thousands of Portuguese workers. At the same time, tens of thousands of Spanish workers have gone to Portugal to work in these newly established Portuguese factories.

These Portuguese workers still need more skilled Spanish workers to train and teach them, which can indirectly send some Spaniards to the Portuguese region.

Throughout 1905, the factories built with Spanish capital and the Portuguese workers who successfully entered these factories became the hottest news topics in Portugal.

Large numbers of Portuguese people flocked to the cities where the Spanish factories were located, hoping to be selected by the factories and work there to earn several times their usual income.

Unfortunately, each factory has a limited number of jobs available. Although the Spanish factories have recruited tens of thousands of Portuguese workers, these jobs are ultimately just a drop in the ocean for Portugal, which has a population of millions.

With too many wolves and too few sheep, many Portuguese citizens have begun to resent the government. If the Portuguese government were even slightly more efficient, they wouldn't need to rely on foreign-invested factories to provide them with jobs.

Complaints about the current situation in Portugal and envy of the Spanish have led many Portuguese people to have more fantasies.

If the Portuguese people could produce a monarch like Carlos, could Portugal achieve a revival similar to that of Spain?

The Portuguese people's demands are not unreasonable. They would be content if their king could stabilize Portugal's political environment, ushering in a golden age of development similar to that of Spain, and increasing the average annual income of Portuguese people several times over. If such a king existed, the Portuguese would be willing to firmly support the monarchy and help him fight against any enemies who might challenge it.

Unfortunately, fantasy is just fantasy. Portugal had become a republic, and naturally, it was impossible for it to have a monarch with great talent and ambition.

Just as some Portuguese were losing hope, they suddenly discovered a glimmer of hope. After all, the current King Juan Carlos, hailed as one of the greatest monarchs in Spanish history, wasn't exactly Spanish.

Carlo was the first monarch of a unified Italy, the son of Vittorio Emanuele II, and a pure-blooded Italian prince.

The Spanish throne was vacant, and Carlos became King of Spain through an election. Since Spain could choose a capable monarch who could lead the nation to revival in this way, why couldn't Portugal do the same?
If Portugal could also have a capable monarch, would it mean that Portugal's current situation could undergo a significant change?

While this idea seems somewhat promising, Portugal faces two major challenges if it wants to replicate Spain's process of electing a king.

The first challenge is the current Portuguese government. Although the Iberian Party has implemented a series of political reforms since coming to power, abolishing the more extreme republican system of the Republican era.

However, in name only, Portugal is still a republic and is not entitled to have a king.

Even though Portugal was a kingdom, the process of choosing a king was not easy. First, Portugal had to choose a king who would satisfy Spain.

Just as Spain had to choose a candidate acceptable to the French government, Portugal also had to take into account the opinions of its neighboring countries when electing its king.

The Spanish government would certainly not accept Portugal choosing a king with a British royal background.

Secondly, even if Portugal were able to elect a king, the chosen one might not necessarily be a capable one. If it were to encounter an incompetent monarch, it would not only fail to lead Portugal to revival but would also further destabilize the already hard-won stability of the country.

These two major problems silenced the Portuguese people who had some ideas, because they simply couldn't think of a suitable solution.

At this point, some of the bolder newspapers in Portugal began reporting even bolder news.

In a news report at the end of December 1905, a newspaper called Lisbon Bay published an article that gave the Portuguese people pause for thought.

The article is titled "On the Future of Portugal." In it, the newspaper details various visions for Portugal's future, including monarchy, republic, and military dictatorship.

To help the Portuguese public better understand the differences between these three systems, the newspaper provided several detailed examples corresponding to each of the three completely different systems.

The most obvious examples of monarchies are Britain and Spain, which have only recently ended their wars. Both Britain and Spain are typical monarchies, and both achieved considerable success in the past.

Examples of republics include the two most famous ones: France and the United States.

As for examples of military dictatorships, in order not to offend existing European countries, the newspaper cited a name that would make the Portuguese people frown: the republican government that instigated the Portuguese civil war, the Portuguese Republic.

The examples cited by this newspaper regarding military dictatorship demonstrate that it completely disregarded the future of such a system. However, considering the specific circumstances in Portugal, this perspective is understandable.

The Portuguese people have just experienced the fear of dictatorship brought about by the republican government. The current Iberian Party does not have the ability to establish a military dictatorship, and the army was trained with the help of Spain. Portugal is simply not going to evolve into a military dictatorship, at least not in the short term.

Having already ruled out military dictatorship, Portugal was left with only two political systems to choose from: monarchy and republic.

In this era, it's impossible to definitively say whether monarchies or republics are better or worse. Has the current republic truly brought its people sufficient democracy and freedom? Probably not.

Currently, the world's few major powers, the vast majority of which, or rather all the major powers except for the United States and France, are monarchies.

The four superpowers recognized by European countries and people—Britain, France, Germany, and Spain (Russia was replaced by Spain after its defeat in the war)—were all monarchies, except for France.

At this time, monarchies in Europe were deeply entrenched. Although Portugal had successfully evolved into a republic, many Portuguese people, including landowners and former nobles, still hoped to restore the monarchy.

Following the publication of this news report, a debate immediately arose in Portugal about whether a monarchy or a republic was more suitable for the country.

Many Portuguese newspapers and media outlets also saw this as a hot topic and joined the discussion, offering their own speculations and opinions in their newspapers.

These discussions repeatedly mentioned the benefits of monarchy, and some Portuguese who wanted to restore the monarchy took this opportunity to promote it extensively, attempting to restore the monarchy.

Logically, the Portuguese government should be paying close attention to domestic public opinion at this time. In particular, it should be subjecting stricter censorship of newspapers promoting the monarchy to prevent the public from siding with those who support it.

Surprisingly, the discussion lasted for more than a month, and the Portuguese government did not respond at all.

It was precisely because the Portuguese government did not respond that a large number of groups hoping for the restoration of the monarchy put in a lot of effort to promote the benefits of the monarchy and spread the disadvantages of the republic, attempting to get the public to join the ranks of those supporting the monarchy.

And it must be said, this overwhelming propaganda and public opinion campaign was effective. Starting in February 1906, opinion polls conducted by some newspapers showed that public support for the monarchy in Portugal was rising.

Originally, during the Portuguese Republic, the Portuguese people had suffered enough under the monarchy, resulting in very low support for the monarchy, with the vast majority of Portuguese people supporting the republic.

In February 1906, surveys conducted by some newspapers showed that support for the monarchy had recovered to nearly 2%, and was still increasing.

Although these newspapers only surveyed specific groups in individual cities, the rising support for the monarchy shows that Spaniards have changed their attitudes and have some concerns about Portugal's current republican system.

Portugal has been a republic for over a decade, and the Portuguese people have experienced it firsthand.

A republic certainly has its advantages, but that doesn’t mean it has no disadvantages.

In order to win more seats, political parties began to oppose the political ideas and propositions of opposing parties at all costs.

Sometimes, even when a policy is clearly beneficial to Portugal, some political parties will oppose it for their own benefit.

Under such intense competition, not only was Portugal's political situation quite chaotic, but its economic and industrial development was also in a state of disarray.

If Portugal is to achieve a revival, at least under the current circumstances, a republic is probably not an option.

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(End of this chapter)