Rise of Empires: Spain.

Chapter 450 European Turmoil
While European nations were still reeling from the airships displayed by Spain, Russia, far removed from the heart of the European continent, was far from at peace.

While Spain was holding its grand military parade, Russia was in complete chaos. A series of widespread social unrest, primarily aimed at opposing the government, occurred, including but not limited to strikes, terrorist attacks, peasant uprisings, military mutinies, and anti-Tsarist propaganda.

These social events lacked a unified organizer and even a unified goal; they were more like a simple venting of pent-up discontent with the Romanov dynasty's rule.

Although Russia has the largest population in Europe, its population is not a single ethnic group. Minorities, suppressed by the dominant ethnic group, also seek independence. Taking advantage of the turmoil that has affected much of Eastern Europe, they have launched demonstrations and uprisings to seek greater autonomy.

To understand the main cause of this large-scale unrest that has spread throughout Russia, one must mention the bloody violence that occurred in St. Petersburg, the Russian capital, on January 22, a week before the Spanish military parade.

Because of the disastrous defeat in the Russo-Japanese War, discontent with the government among the military and the people was quite intense. The people hoped that Tsar Nicholas II would continue the reforms of Alexander III, believing that only thorough reform could save Russia.

How did the Tsarist government respond to the petitions of the people?
Tsarist police in St. Petersburg blocked people from going to the Winter Palace, the Tsar's residence, and large-scale clashes broke out between them and the petitioners.

If it were just a conflict, that would be one thing, but these police forces, ordered by the Tsar, actually took up arms against the petitioning people after the conflict broke out.

Faced with unarmed civilians, these Tsarist policemen became extremely fierce. They easily slaughtered thousands of petitioners, and thousands more were injured. The scene of the crackdown was horrific; the continuous gunfire and the cries of the people could be heard from kilometers away.

Although the Tsarist government later stated that Tsar Nicholas II did not give the order to fire at the police, and that the Tsar would never use force to suppress his people.

However, the Russian people only believed the current outcome. The police force, under the Tsar's orders, did not hesitate to open fire on the petitioning people, and they massacred thousands of people directly in the streets! This is an indelible fact.

People who were already dissatisfied with the Tsarist government immediately took action. On the day of the bloody incident, a considerable number of workers occupied the military factories and armories in St. Petersburg, built makeshift street fortifications, and fought against the Tsarist police forces.

When news of this spread throughout Russia, people in various cities who opposed the government followed suit, which is why the unrest spread throughout Russia.

Although these upheavals will not have a fatal impact on Russia, the nationwide unrest will inevitably have a very serious impact on Russia's industrial and economic development.

As Russia is France's most important ally, the French government immediately paid close attention to the unrest that broke out in Russia.

They first determined that the unrest would not have a fatal impact on Russia, and then transported a batch of supplies to Russia to help Russia resolve domestic instability more quickly.

Although there was no immediate danger, France had lost trust in its ally, Russia.

From France's perspective, Russia's value had diminished significantly. A Russia that could be defeated by Far Eastern powers, a Russia plagued by internal turmoil and whose people had lost faith in its government, could not be a reliable ally of France.

Russia certainly had its role to play; at least a million Russian troops could serve as effective cannon fodder in the fight against Germany. However, relying solely on Russia as an ally was clearly insufficient to win the war.

After much deliberation, the French government turned its attention to Spain.

Currently, there are only three major powers that have not joined the two major military blocs: Britain, Spain, and the United States. The United States is far from Europe and cannot be considered. France can only win over two major powers: Britain and Spain.

The centuries-long feud between Britain and France is not something that can be easily resolved. In addition, there are also considerable contradictions between Britain and Russia, making it even more difficult to win over Britain.

Although Spain has not explicitly stated that it is aligned with either Germany or France, the French government believes that it is more difficult to make Britain an ally than to make Spain one, and that Spain's strategic value is no less than that of Britain.

From the French perspective, there is a good opportunity to win over Spain right now, namely the peace talks that are currently underway between Spain and Britain.

Spain's invitation to the French in peace talks seems to prove this point, at least in Spain's view, that Germany might be more inclined to side with Britain.

Having grasped this point, the French government now had a starting point to court Spain.

On February 17, 1905, the French ambassador to Spain requested an audience with Carlo, hoping that Spain and France could sign a West African colonial agreement to define the boundaries of Spanish and French colonies in Africa and prevent any colonial conflicts between the two countries' colonies.

To demonstrate its sincerity, the French government stated that its Algerian colony would not expand westward any further and that it was willing to recognize the territory between Morocco and Algeria, which was not under direct Spanish rule, as belonging to Spain.

When the French made this request, Carlo immediately understood the French government's intentions. Although the French government wouldn't lose much by doing so, this proactive concession was a clear statement of their stance.

The French government is making it clear to Spain that they have no intention of offending Spain and even want to maintain a long-term good relationship with it.

Of course, the French ultimately wanted to form an alliance with Spain, and Carlo naturally understood this.

The French courting of Spain raises the question of which side Spain should take in the conflict between the two major military blocs.

Standing with France meant facing the German army, and standing with Germany meant facing the French army. Regardless of which side Spain chose, it would face immense pressure and heavy casualties in the war.

Carlos didn't care about the casualties caused by the war, but he also didn't want to see Spain suffer heavy losses without getting enough returns.

Therefore, the issue of the distribution of spoils after the war became an important factor in Carlo's decision to take sides.

If choosing to side with Germany or France is too difficult, then we can think about it another way: what would we gain by defeating Germany or France?

Germany and its two allies, Austria-Hungary and Italy, did not have many colonies. Defeating the Triple Alliance would not have yielded much, since Spain could not possibly annex the territories of these three countries.

But if Spain were to defeat France, the benefits would be immense. France and Spain are neighbors, so annexing French territory wouldn't be out of the question.

Even if France's mainland cannot be annexed, colonies like Algeria and Tunisia can still be divided up.

If we only consider the benefits gained from defeating Germany or France, it is clear that it is more worthwhile to be an enemy of France.

However, considering the world order that would follow defeating Germany or France, Carlo actually preferred to be at odds with Germany. If Germany successfully defeated France, it would become the true hegemon of Europe, making it much more difficult to contain it.

However, even if France were to defeat Germany, it would be a Pyrrhic victory, crippling the country. In such a scenario, a weakened France would pose little threat to Spain.

They could even continue following the historical script of World War II, keeping the Germans filled with hatred for France, thus plotting World War II.

By allying with France against Germany and placing the battlefield on French soil, Spain's domestic industry and economy would not be significantly impacted.

The only country to consider is Britain, which is outside the two major military blocs. If Britain continues to remain neutral after Spain's exit, it is very likely that the British will reap the benefits and become the ultimate winner.

Therefore, before Spain can express its own position, it must force the British government to express its position first.

How can we force the British government to express its position? We need to start with the navy, which is of utmost importance to the British government.

The British government's emphasis on its naval hegemony goes without saying. The deterioration of relations between Britain and Germany in the early 20th century was actually due to Germany's challenge to British naval power.

But what if the countries challenging British naval power changed from Germany to France and Spain? Would that change Britain's choice?
While forcing Britain to side with Germany would make the World War more difficult, defeating both Britain and Germany would allow Spain to further close the gap with the European superpowers and thus claim the throne of European hegemony.

If Russia remains peaceful during the war, it would be the perfect scenario for Spain. With France, Russia, and Spain against Britain, Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Italy, Spain might not be without a chance of victory.

Although Germany had more powerful nations on its side, Italy had always been a fence-sitter during the World Wars, so it would have been easy to get Italy to side with Spain.

It's not about the relationship between the Italian and Spanish royal families, but rather the conflict between the expansionist directions of Italy and Austria-Hungary.

Italy is a peninsula country, and the part of it that connects to the European continent is bordered by only three countries: France, Switzerland, and Austria-Hungary.

Switzerland was a neutral country, while France and Austria-Hungary were powerful nations, which dashed Italy's hopes of expanding northward.

Fortunately, Italy has an alternative: expanding into the Balkan Peninsula, which lies across the sea.

The Balkan Peninsula and the Apennine Peninsula, where Italy is located, are separated by the sea, with the closest point only 80 kilometers away, which is practically right on their doorstep.

More importantly, the countries in the Balkans are not large and pose little threat to Italy's expansion.

Expansion into the Balkans would be the perfect alternative for Italy, far more reliable than seeking colonies in Africa.

After all, most of the African colonies had already been divided up by the great powers, and the remaining lands were either not so easy to occupy or were desolate and sparsely populated areas, so occupying them would not be of much use.

However, this perfect alternative had a major flaw: it conflicted with the expansionist direction of Austria-Hungary, Italy's ally.

The Austro-Hungarian Empire's strategic layout in the Balkans is self-evident; it was precisely because of its occupation of Bosnia and Herzegovina that the spark that ignited the World War occurred.

Although the alliance between Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Italy is known as the Triple Alliance, the most common term is the Austro-German Alliance, with Italy often being overlooked.

After all, Italy's military strength was the weakest among the Triple Alliance countries, and its overall national strength was also the weakest, which forced Italy to make concessions to its allies.

With the mediation of Germany, the elder brother of the Triple Alliance, the relationship between Austria-Hungary and Italy appeared quite amicable. However, Italy was actually quite dissatisfied with its position in the alliance and the benefits it could obtain, which is why Italy ultimately chose to join the opposing side in history.

If Italy could be won over, even if Britain were forced to side with Germany, the confrontation on the European continent would still be evenly matched.

The main forces on Germany's side were Britain and Germany, while the main forces on France's side were France and Spain. Russia was also stronger than Austria-Hungary. As long as Russia remained resilient enough and persisted in fighting the entire world war, victory would ultimately favor Spain and France.

Having figured all this out, Carlo no longer pretended to be deaf and dumb to the French government's overtures.

On February 18, Carlo summoned the French ambassador to Spain, stating that Spain agreed to the French government's demands and was willing to sign a colonial agreement with France to ensure the future peace and stability of the two countries' colonies.

The negotiations between the two countries were quite swift. On February 20, Spain and France signed the West African Colonial Agreement, which delineated the boundaries of their respective colonies and agreed to cooperate by opening colonial ports to each other and reducing the number of troops stationed on colonial borders, among other things.

Although these collaborations only involved colonies, the further deepening of cooperation between Spain and France still worried Germany, which was closely monitoring the situation in Europe.

Spain was in a very different situation at this time. If Spain really chose to side with France, Germany would likely be at a disadvantage.

This also means that Germany must have a sufficiently influential ally, at least on par with France, Russia, and Spain.

In fact, there is only one such country: Great Britain, which had just been defeated in the war.

At this time, Britain also had concerns about the situation in Europe. The cooperation between France and Spain was not good news for Britain, since both countries were major concerns for Britain.

If France and Spain were to unite, what would become of Britain in the Mediterranean? The Spanish navy alone would be enough to threaten the British navy, and with the addition of the French navy, the British Royal Fleet could immediately declare itself a coward, lacking any courage to engage the French and Spanish fleets in direct combat.

Although Germany and Britain, which share the same goal, have not reached a similar cooperation agreement, the two governments have held several talks, clearly discussing something.

Germany's increasingly pro-British stance was also reflected in the peace negotiations. Fortunately, Spain had the support of France, and coupled with the chaotic situation in Britain, the balance of the peace negotiations was tilting towards Spain.

(End of this chapter)