Rise of Empires: Spain.

Chapter 420 The Portuguese Crisis

When the Russo-Japanese War ended, most governments and people believed that the world would usher in a period of peace.

Although the confrontation between the two major military blocs in Europe continues, they are in a stalemate where neither side can gain the upper hand, so it is theoretically impossible for a large-scale armed conflict to break out.

However, what was unexpected was that shortly after the end of the Russo-Japanese War, a crisis that had a very high probability of igniting the situation in Europe emerged.

What crisis? Well, this crisis is actually related to Spain.

Portugal, which Spain had long coveted annexing, had experienced a rather chaotic 12 years since the establishment of the Republic in 1892.

The Portuguese Republican Party gained popular support, defeated the Portuguese government, and established the Portuguese Republic, declaring its intention to create a republican government belonging to all Portuguese people.

At the time, almost the entire Portuguese population believed that the new republican government could save Portugal, and they provided substantial support for the rebellion launched by the Republicans, which is why the Republicans were ultimately able to defeat the Portuguese government.

But when Portugal truly became a republic, the people discovered that the so-called Portuguese republican government was not as wonderful as they had imagined. The problems that existed in Portugal before remained in the republican government, and some issues even became more acute and intense due to the partisan struggles between the Republican Party and other parties.

The Republican government established by the Republican Party was merely a facade of democracy; in reality, most political power was controlled by a small group of people, who in turn controlled considerable military forces.

To put it bluntly, the current Portuguese Republican government was established through a coup, which means that the military is destined to play an extremely important role and have a significant influence within the Portuguese government.

The Republican coup relied on popular support, Spanish aid, and assistance from various political parties.

This has resulted in the fact that not only the Republican Party controls military power, but also other large parties, including the Liberal Party and the Iberia Party.

After seizing power in Portugal, internal conflicts erupted among the previously united political parties. As these conflicts arose, each party began using its military power to cause trouble for the others.

The first few years after the founding of the Portuguese Republic were precisely the darkest years of the country's history. Although the Republican Party largely held supreme power, discontent among other parties grew, leading to numerous worker strikes, demonstrations, and armed uprisings.

Under pressure from various political parties and some dissatisfied citizens, Portugal experienced 20 different types of governments in just 12 years. These governments were composed of different parties, and a total of 14 people served as the president of Portugal during those 12 years.

This alone shows how chaotic the political situation in Portugal was during this period. On average, each president served for less than a year, and each government served for just over six months.

In such circumstances, even if there are occasionally some highly capable presidents and cabinet governments, they will be unable to achieve anything outstanding during their short tenure.

The infighting among Portuguese political parties successfully crippled the country and led many Portuguese to migrate to Spain, where the economy was more prosperous and the political situation more stable.

因为在1890年葡萄牙的总人口已经超过494万的原因，根据西班牙政府的估算，葡萄牙人口有希望在1900年达到540万人，在1905年达到570万人。

Ultimately, by the beginning of 1904, Portugal's population was only 534 million.

During those 12 years, at least 20 Portuguese emigrated to Spain. The Portuguese Republic was unable to stop these immigrants because their rise to power was largely due to the support they received from Spain at the time.

Spain was able to support the Republican Party in overthrowing the Portuguese government, and it can certainly support other parties in overthrowing the current Republican government.

Although the Iberian Party, one of Portugal's largest political parties, is ostensibly a party founded by Portuguese people seeking Iberian unity, whether or not it has the support of the Spanish government is not a question for the Portuguese Republican government.

The answer is definitely yes, but this support is all done in secret, and the level of support isn't that high.

However, if the Portuguese Republican government were to act against Spain like the former Kingdom government, Spain would likely increase its support for the Iberian Party and seek an opportunity to annex Portugal.

If the Republicans continue to remain clear-headed, it is unlikely that Carlos will openly interfere in Portugal's domestic affairs.

However, it seems that the current Portuguese Republican government has abandoned its original foreign policy. Faced with an increasingly chaotic domestic situation and growing discontent among the Portuguese people, the Portuguese Republican government appears to be leaning towards Britain.

On June 12, 1904, the Portuguese Republican government and the British government secretly signed the Anglo-Portuguese Economic Cooperation Treaty, seeking British economic assistance.

The British government generously provided the Portuguese government with a low-interest loan of up to £800 million, which far exceeds the Portuguese government's total annual fiscal revenue.

Although Portugal retains the title of a colonial power, it is actually one of the poorest and most remote countries in Europe.

Portugal essentially has only one neighbor, Spain. Due to its long-standing poor relations with Spain, Portugal's connections with other European countries rely solely on maritime transport.

This has resulted in limited economic exchanges between Portugal and other European countries, and Portugal's economic and industrial development lags significantly behind that of other Central and Western European countries.

Originally, Spain was also in decline, but after Spain gradually became stronger through reforms, only Portugal remained in decline.

Despite Portugal's land area and population being comparable to many small and medium-sized European countries, these countries still have a much stronger industrial base and economy than Portugal.

Compared to smaller European countries such as the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, and Sweden, Portugal remains at the very bottom of the list.

This is precisely why Portugal has consistently had the lowest profile among countries of considerable size and territory since the Industrial Revolution.

The £800 million low-interest loan that the Portuguese Republican government obtained from Britain did alleviate Portugal's domestic economic problems, but the disobedient Portuguese Republican government caused Carlo to lose trust.

Spain absolutely cannot allow Portugal to side with Britain again. Since the current Portuguese government is disobedient, Spain has every reason to replace it with a new one.

Beginning in mid-June 1904, Spain strengthened its ties with the Portuguese Iberian Party and provided it with 20 million pesetas in aid, ostensibly in support of the Iberian Union.

Although the Republican Party is the main body of the Portuguese Republican government, the idea of ​​Iberian unity derived from Pan-Iberianism has gained widespread support in both Portugal and Spain.

These people did not doubt Spain's reasons for supporting the Iberian Union, because in their view, Spain and Portugal did indeed have reasons for uniting.

Spain and Portugal share strikingly similar histories, both founding their nations through reconquest wars. During the Age of Exploration, both Portugal and Spain achieved significant success in circumnavigating the globe, becoming powerful colonial empires and enjoying long golden ages.

Portugal and Spain not only rose to prominence at the same time, but also declined at the same time. If Spain had not been revitalized by the revolution, it would probably have been Portugal's unfortunate counterpart at this point.

Many people feel a sense of kinship with the two countries due to their similar experiences. Furthermore, the Portuguese and Spanish share many similarities in language, religion, and customs, which explains the prevalence of Pan-Iberianism on the Iberian Peninsula.

Supporters of Pan-Iberianism believe that the Portuguese and Spanish of the Iberian Peninsula should be considered as one, as they are all one family, compared to other European countries and nations.

Faced with a highly competitive European situation, Spain and Portugal should unite to deal with enemies outside the Iberian Peninsula.

People firmly believe that the unified Iberian Peninsula will become one of the most powerful countries in the world, not inferior to Britain, France, and Germany.

The combined population of the two countries has reached over 40 million, on par with France and Austria-Hungary, and more than that of Britain and Italy.

Among the major powers with populations exceeding those of Spain and Portugal combined, only Russia, Germany, and the United States truly stand out. Because the United States is not a European country, it receives little attention in international rankings, and Europeans do not fear the United States.

This led most Portuguese and Spanish supporters of Pan-Iberianism to believe that the unification of the two Iberian Peninsula countries would truly make them world-class powers.

If Pan-Iberianism only involved the union of Portugal and Spain, such an idea would definitely have the support of most Portuguese and Spanish people.

However, a union would involve the division of power. Portugal and Spain are not on the same level in terms of overall national strength, and Spain would definitely hold the power of discourse after the union.

For this very reason, there is still a segment of the population in Portugal who do not have a positive view of so-called Pan-Iberianism.

The unified nation will undoubtedly be powerful, but will this unified nation still have any connection with Portugal?
To put it nicely, it was an alliance; to put it bluntly, it might have been Spain unilaterally annexing Portugal.

Looking at the gap between Portugal and Spain at this point makes it clear that the two countries are no longer on the same level. Portugal's industry and economy are not even comparable to several Spanish states; only its population can be compared with Spain's state-level administrative regions.

By the beginning of 1904, Portugal had a population of only 534 million, while Spain had a population of over 3887 million.

How dramatic is the population gap? Andalusia, the most populous state in Spain, has a total population of over 550 million, more than the total population of Portugal.

The populations of Castile and León, Valencia, and Catalonia have all exceeded 400 million. In terms of population, Portugal can only be compared with these state-level administrative regions, and in terms of industry and economy, it is not even as good as a single state-level administrative region in Spain.

Under such circumstances, it is understandable that many Portuguese people have concerns about the Iberian Union.

Of course, such concerns do not exist in Spain.

The Spanish don't have this concern. Whenever a union between Portugal and Spain is involved, the Spanish always benefit.

The only potential threat from the Portuguese is that they might take jobs from the Spanish, but Spain's unemployment rate is currently relatively low, and most people don't need to worry about not finding work, so they don't need to worry about the Portuguese taking their jobs after the merger of Portugal and Spain.

After all, Spanish labor laws are their biggest protection. The Spanish government has strict limits on the ratio of Spanish to non-Spanish employees in all domestic companies, and does not allow any company to hire a large number of non-Spanish employees.

This is done precisely to protect the interests of Spaniards and ensure that Spain's large-scale immigration will not negatively impact the working conditions of native Spaniards.

After receiving support from Spain, the Iberian Party immediately changed its original plans.

The Iberian Party originally planned to develop slowly within Portugal for a period of time, gain a certain popular base, and then seek power in Portugal, or use its influence to promote a coalition between the Portuguese and Spanish governments.

Now that they have secured the support of the Spanish government, the Iberian Party can skip the first step and move directly to the second step, which is to seek power in Portugal.

In the early stages of the Portuguese Republic, it would have been quite difficult to overthrow the republican government by instigating an armed uprising.

After all, the Portuguese people at the time still trusted the newly established republican government. They believed that the republican government would bring them hope, and everyone was looking forward to the good days that would come after the establishment of the new republican government.

But things are different now. After a rather chaotic 12 years, the Portuguese people have come to fully understand the true nature of the Portuguese Republican government.

Although the Republican government has changed from the Kingdom of Portugal, such a small change is not enough to completely change the lives of the Portuguese people.

More importantly, while the Republican government has protected the interests of the Portuguese people to some extent, the chaotic political situation has led to the continuous decline of Portugal's economy.

The poor economic situation has hampered Portugal's industrial development, resulting in persistently high unemployment.

In this situation, the interests of the people seem to be protected, but their actual living standards have not improved compared to before.

The disputes between various political parties in Portugal have even severely impacted the normal lives of the Portuguese people.

Strikes, demonstrations, and armed uprisings are not uncommon in Portugal, and some Portuguese people who want to work hard to earn an income are unable to work and live normally under such circumstances.

On June 22, 1904, the Portuguese Iberian Party publicly issued the "Peace Declaration," advocating that all parties in Portugal abandon their disputes and establish a multi-party republican government in Portugal, with each party taking turns in power and the president and key government officials being determined through elections.

The Iberian Party's proposal received support from many Portuguese citizens, who were fed up with these political parties' frequent strikes, demonstrations, and armed uprisings. Regardless of whether this affected other political parties, it had a significant impact on ordinary people.

The Iberian Party's advocacy has gained support from some political parties, but the Republican Party, which has already received British funding, is unwilling to relinquish its political power.

In the early days of the Republican government, the Republican Party held great power, and the majority of the people supported the Republican Party.

In this scenario, the Republican Party would be willing to accept the establishment of a multi-party republic. Regardless of the number of parties in Portugal, the Republican Party will ultimately hold the majority of seats and have the final say.

But as things stand, the Republican Party is no longer the party supported by the majority of the people.

Although they still hold power, it's because the Republican Party maintains a sufficiently strong military.

If the Republican Party were to take sole control of the government and a multi-party system were to be implemented, the Republican Party might not necessarily be able to gain the support of the majority of the people and win the presidency amidst the attacks from these parties.

It was precisely for this reason that when the Iberian Party's "Peace Declaration" was being hotly debated by many Portuguese citizens and political parties, the Republican Party decisively took action, blocking newspapers that reported on the "Peace Declaration" and arresting a large number of newspaper employees associated with the Iberian Party.

This newspaper had an inseparable relationship with the Iberian Party. Based on the principle of "better to kill a thousand innocent people than let one guilty person go free", the Republican Party directly announced the closure of the entire newspaper and ordered it to rectify until it no longer violated Portuguese law.

The Portuguese government, controlled by the Republicans, has not given a specific timeframe for the rectification. This effectively means a permanent shutdown until a winner is determined between the Republicans and the Iberian Party.

The Iberian Party has no intention of remaining silent in the face of such a decisive blow from the Republican Party.

They controlled more than just this one newspaper. Soon, all sorts of rumors circulated about the Republican Party's dictatorial rule and that the Portuguese Republican government was actually a military dictatorship, pointing the finger directly at the Republican Party, which controlled the Portuguese government.

In its news report, the Iberian Party angrily denounced the Republican Party for manipulating the Portuguese government, condemning them for sacrificing Portugal's national interests for their own party interests, allowing Portugal's economy and industry to remain weak, and severely impacting the normal lives of the Portuguese people.

In an effort to convince the Portuguese people, the Iberian Party, in its news reports criticizing the Republican Party, cited numerous statistics on Portugal's population, industry, and economy in recent years, demonstrating that Portugal's industry and economy had been in a state of decline, with no growth in the overall economic scale. On the contrary, due to the chaotic situation in Portugal, there had been a certain degree of negative growth every year.

Portugal is one of the countries with the lowest per capita income and industrial output in Europe. Spain, once considered a fellow sufferer, is now in the upper-middle range of Europe in terms of both per capita income and industrial output.

To highlight Portugal's stagnation in recent years, the Iberian Party cited Spain's development data, praising Spain for its revival under a great monarch, while Portugal, which was once part of a colonial empire like Spain, is still in a long, dark, and chaotic period.

At the end of the news report, the Iberian Party finally revealed its true intentions, explaining in detail its ideology of Iberian unity. It stated that if Portugal could unite with Spain, Portugal would ride on Spain's coattails to rapidly develop its industry and economy, thereby enabling Portuguese people to find higher-paying jobs, effectively improve their living conditions, and enhance their quality of life.

(End of this chapter)