Late Yuan Dynasty: I am the true emperor

Chapter 554 If Kou can go, so can I! (Seeking monthly votes)
After giving a general account of the Yuan Dynasty's two expeditions to Japan, Lu Jincai then spoke.

"The reason why the Yuan Dynasty failed to conquer Japan was because they made every possible mistake. Take the timing, location, and people as an example. Every year from the beginning of June to the end of September, the western Pacific is in typhoon season. During these months, there are at least five or six typhoons, and sometimes more than a dozen. The winds are strong enough to destroy houses and uproot trees, and the waves at sea can rise several meters high. A single wave can smash and capsize a ship. Sailing at this time is suicidal. This is the timing."

"In addition, there is the advantage of terrain. Although there is no such thing as terrain advantage in naval warfare, there are ships. Kublai Khan was in a hurry to send troops and urged Goryeo to build a thousand ships within a year. However, most of the ships built were crudely made and were flat-bottomed sand boats designed for inland waterways. They were not suitable for sea navigation at all. This is one of the reasons why they suffered such heavy losses when they encountered storms later."

"Finally, there is the issue of human harmony. The soldiers used by the Yuan Dynasty to conquer Japan included Mongol soldiers, surrendered Han soldiers from the Southern Song Dynasty, and Goryeo soldiers. The soldiers did not even understand each other's languages, so how could there be any harmony among them?"
"Furthermore, their army set off in two separate groups, but they were unfamiliar with navigation. The two groups did not coordinate well, resulting in one group arriving first while the other failed to arrive on time. As a result, the first group was left to fend for itself, unable to attack or retreat, caught in a dilemma, and their defeat was to be expected."

Zhu Chongba nodded repeatedly upon hearing this, and at the same time, he felt great respect for this emperor. He was indeed a great military strategist who could write a quick guide to military affairs for officers. Every time he listened to Lu Jin's analysis of the war, he could learn a lot.

"This is just the tip of the iceberg; there are three other mistakes that are even more serious."

"Did the Yuan army make other mistakes?" Zhu Chongba asked in surprise.

"Of course, as the art of war says, 'Know yourself and know your enemy, and you will never be defeated.' Kublai Khan wanted to make Japan a vassal state, but he didn't even know the situation in Japan, or even who was in charge. The shogunate's relatives killed his envoy, so wasn't he just asking for it?"

Zhu Chongba nodded, "Your Majesty is absolutely right."

"The Art of War also says, 'A general should not raise an army in anger.' This was another mistake. When he learned that the envoy he sent had been killed, Kublai Khan lost his mind in anger and immediately wanted to send troops to the east. He had no time to prepare and did not know the enemy's situation. He went to fight in the dark. It would be strange if he did not lose!
"Of course, these are all minor mistakes. For a decision-maker like Kublai Khan, his biggest mistake was not clarifying his strategic objectives before deciding to launch a war."

"Strategic objective?" Zhu Chongba thought he had learned a new term, something that was not found in any military treatise.

"That's right. Strategic objective is what your purpose is in sending troops. This is something you must think clearly about before starting a war. Otherwise, it's reckless and opportunistic. Once the fighting starts, the situation will be out of your control, and you'll be at a loss. Defeat will only be a matter of time."

"Kublai Khan's first military expedition to Japan was entirely driven by anger and was made without any preparation. He probably just wanted to teach Japan a lesson and force Japan to pay tribute by force, but he did not expect the Japanese resistance to be so fierce."

"When the troops were sent out, they were not prepared and their forces were insufficient. After 20,000 to 30,000 men landed, they were unable to continue the attack and were trapped on the beach, unable to advance or retreat. They were easily defeated by the Japanese when a strong wind blew in."

"Perhaps he was enraged after his first defeat, but at least he made some preparations for the second time. He not only gathered more troops, but also divided his forces into two groups. He even prepared for a protracted war, sending his soldiers with farming tools and seeds, intending to settle on the island and occupy it for a long time after landing."

"But the result was not as expected. We had no favorable timing, location, or popular support, our preparations were insufficient, and the enemy situation was unclear. We suffered another major defeat the second time."

Zhu Chongba nodded after listening, "According to Your Majesty, the Yuan army's two defeats were not unjust. Therefore, if our Ming Dynasty were to attack Japan, we must avoid making as many mistakes as the Yuan army."

“That’s right. Now tell me, if our dynasty were to conquer Japan, what should we do?” Lu Jin asked immediately.

Zhu Chongba knew that His Majesty was testing him, but he was still a little confused. Could it be that His Majesty really wanted to appoint his own generals to lead the fight against Japan? But it was not his place to command a regiment!

Since he couldn't figure it out, Zhu Chongba decided to stop thinking about it altogether and began to speak frankly.

"Your Majesty, I believe that we should first choose the right time to send out troops. It would be best to send out troops after the first day of the tenth month and withdraw them before the sixth month of the following year, so as to avoid the harmful windy season."

"Secondly, the troop strength cannot be too small. As Your Majesty said before, Japan was able to field 19 standing troops. Although they are not permanent and are now divided into the North and South, they are still not to be underestimated. Anything can happen if a real war breaks out. It is not impossible for the North and South to temporarily put aside their grudges and fight together. Therefore, the troop strength must be fully prepared."

"Thirdly, the sea is different from the land. If the troops are sent out in separate groups, they may miss the deadline if they encounter any unexpected events, and the purpose of the coordinated operation of multiple armies will not be achieved. Therefore, it is best to attack as a group and then divide the troops after landing on land, depending on the situation."

"Fourth, we should build more large ships that can sail the seas, preferably ships that can carry the entire army ashore at once. We must not send out troops rashly before the ships are built, so as not to repeat the mistakes of the Yuan army."

"Anything else?" Lu Jin pressed.

Zhu Chongba was taken aback upon hearing this, and after thinking for a moment, he said, "Your subject is dull-witted and cannot think of anything more."

Lu Jin sighed inwardly and shook his head. It seemed that he had wasted Zhu Chongba in this timeline. Although the points he made were useful, they did not touch on the core strategy of attacking Japan at all.

Barring unforeseen circumstances, if Zhu Chongba were to formulate the attack plan, he would most likely follow the Yuan army's attack route: first occupy Tsushima Island, then attack Iki Island, and finally land at Hakata Bay in Fukuoka City on the west side of Kyushu Island, completely copying the Yuan army's attack route and advancing in a straight line from the Tsushima Strait.

Although he avoided the mistakes made by the Yuan Dynasty in its two eastern expeditions, he did not make any progress in the overall strategic direction. Of course, this may also be because Zhu Yuanzhang was not good at geography and was not familiar with the geography of Japan.

Japan's biggest geographical flaw is that it is an island nation, surrounded by coastlines, with a long and narrow landmass, lacking strategic depth, which is very important.

Although Lu Jin dared not call himself a peerless general, he had more knowledge than these ancient people, especially after reading many classic battle examples from China and abroad, and personally leading troops in battle for several years. He was not without progress.

If Lu Jin had followed his usual military tactics, he would never have chosen to land in Fukuoka, Kyushu. First of all, Kyushu was not the core of Japan, but at most like a limb. Even if the entire Kyushu were conquered, it would be equivalent to cutting off Japan's hands and feet. It would hurt, but it wouldn't be fatal.

Moreover, the daimyo of Kyushu are not to be trifled with, and the Japanese people are quite fierce and stubborn. They will never immediately submit to the Ming Dynasty. It would be better if the Ming army did not occupy Kyushu. Once they occupied Kyushu, they would be unable to extricate themselves from the quagmire of war.

This is different from fighting for hegemony in civil war. In civil war, as long as you win against your opponent, the people will immediately submit. But when fighting abroad, you have to be prepared that the people of the enemy country will also be enemies.

At that time, they would have to face the counterattack of the Japanese army on Honshu Island on one hand, and the uprising of the Japanese on Kyushu Island on the other, and be mired in an endless quagmire of counterinsurgency.

Furthermore, Kyushu Island is mountainous and has rugged terrain. The Japanese, relying on their familiarity with the terrain, could easily hide in any remote mountain valley, keeping the Ming occupying forces constantly on their toes. Lu Jin certainly didn't want the Ming army to wage guerrilla warfare against the Japanese in the mountains of Kyushu.
So where should we choose as the attack target?

Of course, the best approach is to first capture the leader of the enemy, and strike at the heart of the matter. We should directly attack the Japanese leader at that time, the Japanese capital, Heian-kyo, also known as Kyoto!

As mentioned before, Japan is an island nation surrounded by sea, with a long and narrow shape, lacking strategic depth.

Heian-kyo is located in the very center of south-central Honshu Island. It is only 65 kilometers (130 li) away from Maizuru Port on the west coast.

However, the west coast of Honshu is mountainous and the terrain is quite rugged. If they were to land at Maizuru Port to attack Kyoto, they would have to cross mountains and ridges and follow winding mountain roads. This would increase the distance considerably, by about 150 li. Without a guide, they might even get lost. It was only an alternative landing point for Lu Jin.

Unlike the west coast, Heian-kyo is only 51 kilometers (102 li) from Osaka on the east coast of Honshu Island. The entire route from Osaka to Heian-kyo is a plain, and there is a river called Yodo River that flows out of Lake Biwa next to Heian-kyo, through Kyoto, and then into the sea from Osaka.

Do you know what a 102-li (approximately 51.5 km) plain means in military terms?

During the Chinese People's Volunteer Army's large-scale incursion into Sansuoli, the 38th Army set a marching record of 145 li (approximately 72.5 kilometers) in 14 hours! This was accomplished under harsh conditions, including at night, on snowy mountain roads, and with enemy troops blocking the way.

In other words, if they chose to land in Osaka on the east coast, they only needed to train a fast-moving army in advance, and they could capture the Japanese capital in about 10 to 12 hours and arrest the Emperor and the Ashikaga shogun!

If we don't start a war, fine. But if we do, we'll breach the capital on the day we land, capture the Emperor, and wipe out that damned Japanese!

This is the tragedy of small countries lacking strategic depth; they are too close to the sea, leaving them nowhere to run.

Countries with vast territories like China and the Soviet Union could retreat to Sichuan or Siberia if they couldn't win the initial battle. Small countries like Japan didn't have this option, as their capital was only 51 kilometers from the coast.

From Osaka on the east coast to Tsuruga on the west coast, the entire distance is only 288 li (approximately 144 kilometers). If they land simultaneously from both sides and advance from east to west, they can sweep across Honshu Island in a day and a night at most, and the two armies can then meet in Kyoto. Moreover, attacking Japan at this time has another advantage: strategically, the Japanese are unaware that Lu Jin has his sights set on Kyoto, allowing them to focus their efforts on that area.

For example, first send the navy to the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and the coasts of Ming Dynasty and Goryeo to wipe out the Japanese pirates' ships, then let the navy seize control of the Tsushima Strait, and after seizing control of the sea, send a detachment to forcibly land on Tsushima Island to wipe out the Japanese there, and then continue to land on Iki Island.

After taking these two islands, we will use Sun Bin's strategy of reducing cooking fires in reverse, sending a large number of civilian ships between the two islands to play the trick of increasing cooking fires, planting more flags and lighting more fires, making the soldiers noisy and creating the illusion that the Ming army has greatly increased its troops and stored up food on the two islands.

They could even send battleships to bombard Hakata Bay, drawing all of Japan's attention and making them believe that the Ming army was going to follow the example of the Yuan Dynasty and launch a large-scale landing at Hakata Bay in Kyushu, thus drawing all of Japan's heavy military forces to the Hakata Bay area to defend against the Ming army's landing.

Then, at this point, the main force of the Ming army's landing force was hidden in Hokkaido in the north. Taking advantage of the Japanese capital's vulnerability, they avoided the enemy's strength and attacked its weakness, using feints to the east and attacks to the west, and went straight to Kyoto!
Once the enemy's capital is captured and their king taken prisoner, according to ancient custom, the country can generally be declared extinct.

But Lu Jin knew that Japan would not give in so easily. His ultimate strategic goal was to truly destroy Japan, to the point of national extinction and annihilation.

We could start with a war and raze the heartland of the Kansai Plain, including Heian-kyo, Osaka, Nara, and Kobe, to the ground. Kill everyone, burn all the houses—since Japanese buildings are mostly wooden and easy to burn—and inflict a devastating blow on Japan.

You slaughter my capital, I slaughter your capital. It's fair, isn't it?
Then, depending on how the situation develops in Japan, the Ming army can go back to recuperate for a year and return to fight again next year.

If the ambition is even greater, one could also besiege the city and ambush the reinforcements. After capturing Heian-kyo (Kyoto), one should not be in such a hurry to retreat. Instead, one could wait for the various Japanese daimyo to lead their armies to the capital to defend the emperor, and then the Ming army could ambush these reinforcements on their way, thereby expanding the victory.

Just two or three battles like this will be enough to completely cripple Japan. The first year, slaughter the Kansai Plain; the second year, slaughter the Edo Plain; and the third year, slaughter the Nagoya Plain. If half of Japan's population is still left after these three battles, Lu Jin will write his name backwards!

In the fourth year, the Ming army officially landed and stationed troops there permanently, and began to immigrate to Japan.

Furthermore, a long-term bounty was offered: 10 taels of silver for the head of a Japanese man, 5 taels for an elderly or young man, and 1 tael for a child, much like the bounty offered by Americans for the scalp of Native Americans. This bounty was valid indefinitely and encouraged Ming Dynasty immigrants to hunt down Japanese.

Lu Jin could even use his own money, taking a few million taels of silver from the imperial treasury, to buy Japanese men to extinction.

At that time, Japan had a total population of only 6 million. If the population was evenly split between men and women, there would be only 3 million men. After several major wars, half of the country died, leaving only 1.5 million people. And these 1.5 million people could not all be young and strong. Lu Jin could kill all the Japanese men with no more than 10 million yuan.

Besides, Japan still has silver mines. Lu Jin can simply make up for it from those mines. This whole thing is basically using Japanese money to buy Japanese lives.
Lu Jinli and the people of Da Ming both benefit from this arrangement. In any case, the money will eventually be distributed to the people of Da Ming, who will then spend it in Da Ming. No matter how the money circulates, it will still be circulating within the country, which will actually stimulate consumption and boost domestic demand.

Of course, this plan only exists in Lu Jin's mind for now. He has not told anyone about it yet, and he does not intend to tell Zhu Chongba today.

After listening to Zhu Chongba's points of attention, Lu Jin sighed before speaking.

"Zhongba, amphibious landing operations are ultimately different from land operations. In fact, no matter how many ships are built, for a large army, they are all rootless duckweed. They are never as grounded and secure as those on land. Soldiers cannot stay at sea forever. Once they land and enter enemy territory, they will be surrounded by dangers and will never have the chance to rest in peace again."

"Even for those ships, there is a place where they can dock, where sailors can rest ashore, and where they can replenish their fresh water."

"Therefore, for a large army to land across the sea, in addition to the basics such as ships, favorable weather, terrain, and manpower, the most crucial thing is to have a stable foothold, preferably a place where an army can rest and recuperate in peace."

Upon hearing this, Zhu Chongba immediately nodded, agreeing with Lu Jin's point of view. "Your Majesty is absolutely right. It would be even better if we could have a piece of land under our control. Back then, when the Yuan army marched eastward to Japan, they used Goryeo as their rear base. This place doesn't seem to be too far from Japan."

"Now that Goryeo has become a vassal state of the Ming Dynasty, could we also station ourselves in Goryeo to rest and recuperate, and use it as our rear base?"

Lu Jin glanced at him and asked in return, "Do you think they would agree to let Goryeo pass through to attack Japan? Won't they suspect that we are using this as a pretext for our own gain?"

"Uh, what should we do then?" Zhu Chongba was at a loss.

Lu Jin then revealed his true purpose, turned around and led him to the sand table, tapping the Hokkaido area with his baton and saying, "Look here."

"This is Chengzhou. Why are there only a few place names here? Could it be that this is not Japanese territory?" Zhu Chongba knew that the emperor would not make fun of him casually. Since he pointed to this place, there must be a deeper meaning.

"Of course not, at least not now. Do you remember what I just told you? The Japanese actually migrated to the island from the Korean Peninsula. They were originally in the south, while the north was entirely the territory of the Ainu people, also known as the Ezo people in Japan."

“It took them thousands of years to gradually occupy Honshu after they landed on the island. Even the northernmost part of Honshu was only occupied in the last one or two hundred years. Moreover, Japan is not stable here. Even today, Ainu people are still active in the coastal mountainous areas of Mutsu Bay.”

“This Chengzhou Island is the last place where the Ainu people lived, and there are no Japanese people on the island.”

Zhu Chongba suddenly realized. He wasn't stupid, just inexperienced. As soon as Lu Jin mentioned it, he immediately understood. "So that's how it is. Your Majesty means that we occupy this place as a rest and reorganization point for the landing army, and use it as the army's rear?"

“Not bad.” Lu Jin nodded and introduced again, “Don’t underestimate this island. See this strait? It’s only 80 miles from Mutsu Bay, the northernmost point of Honshu Island, Japan. If you take a boat, it only takes two hours for a slow boat and less than an hour for a fast boat to reach the other side.”

"In addition, this island is quite large, about the size of a province of our Great Ming Dynasty. The land is fertile, the climate is pleasant, and the four seasons are distinct. Although it snows in winter, it is not as cold as Liaodong. There are also a lot of fresh water from rivers, which are suitable for growing grains, and even rice can be grown."

"If all the land on this island were cultivated, it would be able to support not only an army of 100,000, but also hundreds of millions of people."

"More importantly, this island is located in a strategic location. It is connected to Sakhalin Island in Liaodong to the north and Honshu Island in Japan to the south, and is only a few dozen miles away from both sides. It is situated at a crucial point on the sea routes of all directions."

"If our Great Ming Dynasty were to occupy this island, even if we did not launch a war of annihilation against Japan, it would be very convenient to retaliate in kind. If the Japanese pirates can cross the sea to plunder our Great Ming's coastline, why can't we cross the sea to plunder the Japanese pirates? If the pirates can go, so can we!"

"Given the importance of Chengzhou Island's location, stationing a division here is far better than stationing hundreds of thousands of troops along the coast of the Ming Dynasty. If they dare to plunder the Ming Dynasty, the Ming Dynasty can plunder Japan from Chengzhou Island and see who suffers greater losses. Of course, this is only a last resort, like children fighting, not something a strong man should do."

Lu Jindu has put it so bluntly; if he still doesn't understand the importance of Chengzhou Island, he'd be a fool.

Moreover, Zhu Chongba had roughly guessed the emperor's intentions. If it came to fighting Japan, it probably wouldn't be up to a mid-to-lower-level general like him to lead the army. However, being the vanguard, fighting the savages on Chengzhou Island, and opening up a large rear area for the main army was a task that was perfect for a general of his rank.

Thinking of this, he immediately said, "Your Majesty, I understand. We will take this island as a base for our army. Your Majesty, please give the order. I am willing to be the vanguard of the entire army and guarantee to eliminate the Emishi on the island as soon as possible."

Lu Jin was taken aback upon hearing this; it seemed this guy had misunderstood.
So he immediately brought up the real mission, "I summoned you here not to fight the Ainu. In fact, the Marquis of Bowang has already made contact with the Ainu people on the island and established a good relationship with them. He even brought back an Ainu person."

"This island is very large, and there are not many Ainu people on the island, only about 20,000 to 30,000. They don't have a unified organization; they are all family tribes. One family is one tribe. They make a living by fishing and hunting and don't even know how to farm."

"But they also need to make a living and have a great need for various ceramics, ironware, cloth and other items. Last time, when the Marquis of Bowang went there, he sold them some, and the local people liked them very much. They were even happy to trade with us."

"You are going to lead people to settle down and reclaim wasteland. There is not much conflict between the two sides. On the contrary, they and the Japanese are sworn enemies. This is exactly what we need to do. Do you understand?"

Zhu Chongba's mind worked quickly, and he immediately said, "Your Majesty means that I should lead people to Chengzhou Island to cultivate land, and at the same time, trade with the local people, and then win them over to fight Japan together?"

"Yes, that's what I mean!"

(End of this chapter)