Rebirth 2010: I taught Mr. Lei how to make a mobile phone

Chapter 890 Two Needles

Given: Old Xu and Old Ma are each blowing up a balloon that is getting bigger and bigger and will eventually burst, which will affect the overall economy to some extent.

As a reborn individual who knows the course of history, you possess the entire resources of the Other Shore Group and many like-minded friends.

Q: How can we minimize the harm?
To expect Xu and Ma to repent and turn back to the right path is nothing short of a pipe dream.

Physical elimination is too difficult and would not help the overall situation. The situation has already been set and will not be changed by individual will.

Then there's only one thing we can do.

After much thought, Chen Mo's eyes gradually hardened—he decided to become that needle himself.

Early November, Beijing.

As the cold wind swept through the streets carrying withered leaves, Chen Mo led the core members of the Tianji Pavilion on a journey to visit experts in economics, finance, real estate, and international relations, seeking their advice on certain professional issues.

These experts are all influential figures in the decision-making think tank, and each closed-door discussion is highly beneficial to those on the other side, serving as a learning journey.

Upon returning to the company, Chen Mo led his team to conduct a review, incorporating the experts' insights into the discussions, repeatedly refining and polishing the plans. Through the collision of ideas, the plans for the future became increasingly clear, and this process was repeated continuously.
As the clock struck midnight on the 12th, Singles' Day came to a close, and JD.com's Singles' Day sales report data was released!

根据战报显示：截止23点59分，京东最终的销售额超过了1271亿，相比此前618年中大促时创造的1199亿销售记录而言，整整超过72亿。

Tmall, the current e-commerce leader, achieved a total transaction volume of over 1682 billion yuan during Singles' Day, representing a 39.4% increase compared to the total sales volume of the entire Singles' Day last year.

It broke 100 million in 11 seconds and 10 billion in 3 minutes, setting a new record once again.

In this year's e-commerce battlefield, Douyin e-commerce emerged like a dark horse, taking advantage of the new trend of live-streaming sales to strongly rank among the top three with sales of 626 billion yuan, surpassing Suning.com's 372 billion yuan, and becoming a new favorite in the e-commerce world.

The live streaming sector exploded in this battle, with 275 brands achieving sales exceeding 100 million yuan through live streaming, 111 e-commerce live streamers achieving sales exceeding 100 million yuan, and over 470,000 e-commerce authors seeing their sales double year-on-year.

Among them, Jia Yueting's "Old Jia Live Room" has become a phenomenon. On Singles' Day, the 10-hour live stream garnered a staggering 158 billion yuan in sales, accounting for nearly 25% of Douyin's total e-commerce performance, firmly securing its position as the top performer.

This has led to widespread speculation in the media that, given this trend, his debt of over 200 billion yuan could be cleared within a year, and he might even become the "world's first person to repay debts in history."

Viya, a Taobao Live streamer, also performed exceptionally well, setting a new personal sales record with 33 billion yuan in sales.

In contrast, Li Jiaqi, who was once embroiled in a public opinion storm, has seen his popularity decline even after resuming broadcasts. The comments section is filled with doubts such as "Where is it expensive?" and "I don't work hard enough, I don't deserve to buy it." The halo of the former top anchor has faded, and his sales on Singles' Day barely exceeded 10 million yuan, less than one-tenth of his former glory.

On November 13, Chen Mo called Liu Qiangdong, Lei Jun, and Zhang Yiming to congratulate them on their Double Eleven sales achievements.

After hanging up the phone, his gaze fell on two documents on his desk, documents that embodied countless hours of hard work—two plans as sharp as needles.

First, the needle used to puncture the 'ant balloon'.

The results from the past two days show that both e-commerce and finance are performing well.

Ant Group is in a period of absolute growth and is regarded as a benchmark for financial technology innovation in China. Its listing plan is an epic project that has attracted worldwide attention.

This is different from Didi a few months ago. This time, the enemy is more secretive and cunning. Most importantly, they don't act recklessly like the former, which makes it extremely difficult and challenging for Chen Mo and his team to intervene.

After much thought, to make it "explode prematurely" means to shake its foundations.

This is not about destroying it, but about exposing the huge risks in its business model and policy compliance issues to regulators and the public in advance, thereby forcing it to suspend its listing or restructure.

Most importantly, Chen Mo could not launch an open and blatant attack, but instead used existing internet resources to conduct an unprecedented and precise "risk disclosure".

Chen Mo doesn't need to create risks; he only needs to present the enormous risks inherent in Ant Group, which would only erupt years later, to regulators and the public in advance, acting as that brave "whistleblower."

"Ma Yijin's Plan"

Phase One: In-depth Research and Intelligence Building (Preparatory Period)

Beyond Cloud Computing and Big Data Analytics:
We analyzed publicly available ABS issuance data to quantify Ant Group's leverage ratio.

The diagram shows how a small amount of equity capital can leverage trillions of dollars in credit.

By building models from the massive amounts of data collected, the study simulates how the asset quality of Ant Group's loan products would deteriorate sharply and how its risk reserves would be insufficient under conditions of macroeconomic downturn and a slight increase in borrower default rates.

Analysis of its user data reveals that its customers are highly concentrated among young people, low-income groups, and those in lower-tier markets, who are more financially vulnerable.

Infiltration and public opinion campaign: Recruit people with financial backgrounds to pose as users, partners, or even former employees, and begin to infiltrate various forums (such as Zhihu and Zhiyan) and communities to collect real cases of violent debt collection, excessively high interest rates, and excessive inducement to borrow.

Special note: These cases must be authentic and verifiable.

They sent people to infiltrate the microfinance companies and banks they were cooperating with to understand their actual risk-bearing and risk transfer practices in the cooperation.

Phase Two: Multi-dimensional Approach, Shaking the Narrative (Preparation and Warm-up)
Using the communication channels and media resources of the other side of the strait, launch a "fact-based questioning" campaign.

In terms of public opinion: its "technological" exterior is questioned, while its "financial" core is exposed.

Coverage: "Elite" public opinion sphere (WeChat Official Accounts, Zhihu, Zhiyan, Xiaohongshu) and mass public opinion sphere (Baidu, Weibo, Tieba, etc.)

Alternative: Guiding international public opinion
Phase Three: Igniting the Crisis (Launching the Final Offensive)

When public opinion ferments to a certain extent and attracts the attention of regulators, a fatal blow is delivered.

Choosing the right time: One month before the formal submission of the prospectus or at the most critical moment of pre-IPO financing.

Unleashing the "trump card": Providing the most detailed report, compiled in the first phase, simulating the systemic risks caused by Ant Group's collapse under various possible subsequent circumstances, to the highest financial decision-making body and internal reference.

Expected results and risks:
Result: Regulatory authorities reacted strongly and are likely to introduce regulations similar to the "Interim Measures for the Administration of Online Micro-loan Business" ahead of schedule, directly limiting Ant Group's leverage ratio and requiring it to rectify its business and replenish its capital.

This would completely shatter its IPO valuation narrative, and the IPO plan would inevitably be postponed indefinitely or completely reshaped.

Ant Group will be transformed from a "model of financial innovation" into a "key target of regulation".

risk:

Political risks: Excessive attacks could be seen as undermining financial stability and innovation, potentially backfiring on the company. Therefore, it is essential to always maintain an "objective, rational, and public-spirited" stance.

Possible counterattack: Ant Group possesses strong public relations, legal, and government relations capabilities, and will inevitably face a full-scale counterattack from the other side.

Collateral damage: This plan could trigger panic across the entire fintech industry, impacting allies such as Tencent, JD.com, and Baidu, which are involved in internet finance businesses.

'

If Chen Mo was the "whistleblower" in the "Ma Yijin's Plan," then he transformed into the "pressure monster" in the plan against Evergrande.

For a company like Evergrande, relying on simple online trolls and smear campaigns is too inefficient and could easily backfire.

Therefore, Chen Mo needs to utilize his comprehensive resources to conduct a precise, multi-dimensional, and long-term "stress test" targeting the core weaknesses of Evergrande's high-leverage model.

The core strategy of this plan is to create a "liquidity panic," thereby triggering a run on creditors, customers' reluctance to buy, and banks' reluctance to lend.

Strike the snake at its vital spot – this means going straight for the opponent's Achilles' heel, namely its extremely high debt ratio and tight cash flow. For real estate companies of this scale, which often amount to hundreds of billions, what they fear is not losses, but the instantaneous evaporation and run on their liquidity.

This "Sting Plan" titled "Should It Stop?" actually uses the same methods as the previous plan. It also uses Beyond Cloud and big data to analyze the data, lays the groundwork through public opinion, and finally launches a final attack before Evergrande releases a huge debt that is about to mature or an important financial report.

However, the difference lies in the scope of data analysis and collection: Evergrande's data includes changes in browsing, inquiries, and transaction data across various platforms, allowing them to pinpoint key areas and projects experiencing sluggish sales.
By analyzing map data and pedestrian flow, we can identify which "land king" projects or large-scale developments are worth a fortune.

We used hacking techniques to analyze public opinion and operational data of companies in Evergrande's supply chain.

All of these methods are aimed at finding Evergrande's "financial black hole".

Then, the entire army dispatched personnel in disguise to infiltrate the sales centers and construction sites of various Evergrande properties to investigate the construction progress and the workers' conditions, obtaining first-hand on-site investigation data as 'ammunition'.

After acquiring sufficient intelligence, they launched a "truth campaign" through their channels and resources—this is not about spreading rumors, but about amplifying and disseminating existing negative facts in advance, thereby completely undermining the opponent's credibility from the perspective of public opinion.

Finally, they instigated a run on the supply chain by contacting vulnerable suppliers identified earlier through anonymous channels, spreading rumors that Evergrande would delay payments, and urging them to demand payment in advance.

Once a herd mentality is triggered, a "supply chain run" will spread like dominoes, leading to a "double whammy" for bonds issued by banks and other financial institutions.

In fact, in this plan, Chen Mo does not need to "kill" the other party with his own hands; he only needs to expose the emperor's new clothes in advance.

Through the unique information creation, amplification, and precise distribution capabilities of the Beyond Group, a signal is continuously and from multiple angles sent to the market: "HD has cash flow problems."

When this distrust spreads like a plague from homebuyers and suppliers to financial institutions and investors...

The other party's highly leveraged empire will collapse in the event of a liquidity crunch.
(End of this chapter)