My father Liu Xuande

Chapter 155 Guangling Deduction
"Sun Ce's forces have successfully crossed the river and captured Dantu."

Liu Feng invited his general to step forward and unfold a miniature map. This was a simple map that Liu Feng had marked based on his memory of the approximate locations, yet it was already comparable to most maps of this era.

"Dantu is located by the sea and is the last narrow section of the Yangtze River before it flows into the sea. After passing Dantu, the river mouth widens and flows into the sea."

"Therefore, Dantu is also an important stronghold on the northern front of Yangzhou, and it is less than 20 miles away from Qu'a. It is only because the Niuzhu defense line is more critical and of a higher level that it has never received much attention."

Liu Feng first introduced the situation in Dantu, and then concluded: "With the fighting strength of the Sun family army, now that they have taken Dantu, they will likely be able to take Qu'a in the next two days."

"Conquer Qu'a?"

The generals looked up in shock. Zhao Yun asked in confusion, "Isn't Qu'a the seat of Liu Yao? Sun Ce only has three or four thousand men. Although he has a foothold after crossing the river and taking Dantu, if he wants to attack Qu'a, I'm afraid it will only be a loss."

Taishi Ci nodded in agreement: "Indeed, as Commandant Zhao said, if the attack on Qu'a is ineffective, Dantu may be at risk. Once Dantu is lost, the Sun family army will be in a dead end and may be completely wiped out."

Xu Sheng, Pan Zhang, Zhou Tai, Jiang Qin, and others clearly respected Liu Feng more, and even if they had different opinions, they would not raise them in public.

However, judging from their expressions, they seemed to have come to agree with Zhao Yun and Taishi Ci.

This is not surprising. Sun Ce had already successfully crossed the river and captured Dantu. It is only natural for him to know when to stop.

However, they did not understand Sun Ce's character, nor did they know that Qu'a had virtually no troops at the time.

Liu Yao's main force was stationed at the Niuzhu front, and he only had five or six thousand troops in the rear. The fact that Dantu could send out 1,500 was already a sign of great importance.

Qu'a has no soldiers, at most two or three thousand.

Even if there are three thousand, how can a mere county soldier withstand the old troops of the Sun family who are brutally beating the Xiliang Iron Cavalry?

It would be a miracle if Sun Ce could hold back.

Moreover, although Sun Ce appeared to be surrounded by enemies, he was actually as steady as a mountain.

The troops in Jiangdong were mainly divided into three parts: the allied forces of local gentry and powerful families represented by Xue Li, Zuo Rong, and Liu Yao.

The force that Liu Yao could command relatively smoothly was the coalition of local gentry and powerful families in Jiangdong, but unfortunately, they were currently stuck at the front line in Niuzhu and unable to move.

The remaining Xue Li and Zuo Rong nominally obeyed Liu Yao, but in reality, they formed an alliance, with Liu Yao merely acting as the leader of the alliance.

Whether or not one obeys Liu Yao's orders, and to what extent, is subject to change at any time.

Liu Yao is about to lose even Qu'a, and Liu Feng doesn't believe that Xue Li and Zuo Rong can't change things.

Xue Li is alright, but if Liu Yao were to foolishly run to Zuo Rong, he might get killed by that lunatic Zuo Rong right away, and that would be a real mess.

However, Xu Shao is still alive, so even if Liu Yao has really lost his mind, he will try to dissuade him. You can rest assured about that.

“Sun Ce is a man of strong character, eager for quick success and profit, and aggressive like fire. Once he gains momentum, it will be like a flood that pours out.”

Liu Feng pointed to Dantu: "Dantu is the point where he broke through the dam. His momentum has been established, and he is likely to sweep across Jiangdong next."

"Sweeping across Jiangdong?"

Zhao Yun and the others didn't disbelieve Liu Feng, but they felt that Liu Feng's words were a bit too grandiose. Could Sun Ce really be that amazing?
Taishi Ci thought it was nothing special. He was clearly just average. He couldn't even beat me. What kind of hero was he?

"Yes, it swept across Jiangdong."

Liu Feng clearly remembered how the Little Tyrant was blocked by the Yangtze River for more than half a year, and how he was able to sweep everything away after crossing the river.

However, things were different from in history. Originally, he crossed the river with the help of his good friend Zhou Gongjin and the Zhou family. They betrayed Liu Yao and launched a surprise attack on Niuzhu from Danyang. With the help of both inside and outside forces, they directly crushed the coalition of Jiangdong gentry and powerful families on the Niuzhu defense line.

This ruthless betrayal effectively crippled Liu Yao's closest military force, and even after reorganizing his troops, he had no hope of suppressing Sun Ce.

Now that Sun Ce has crossed the river on his own merits, he doesn't owe Sun Ce any favors. He just wonders if the Zhou family will resent the letter he sent back then when they hear this news.

"Everyone can wait and see. I think we will hear the news of Sun Ce's capture of Qu'a within three days."

Liu Feng spoke with great confidence, wanting to show off, but he never expected that the news that followed would be so unexpected.

"If Sun Ce begins to sweep across Jiangdong, then an opportunity will actually arise for us."

Then, Liu Feng steered the conversation to the point he was most concerned about: "That is, whether our Xuzhou army should cross the river."

"Shall we cross the river?"

Zhao Yun, Taishi Ci, and the other generals looked at each other in bewilderment, clearly not having expected this at all.

Liu Feng nodded seriously: "What I am about to say is a crucial secret of my Xuzhou army. All of you here are important generals of Xuzhou, trusted ministers of my father and me. Therefore, I dare to tell you the truth. You must not divulge even the slightest bit of it."

In reality, things weren't as tense as Liu Feng made them out to be. Liu Feng was just making empty promises to show his confidant and his favor towards his general.

In fact, the possibility of the Xuzhou army moving south was something that not only the neighboring governors of Yangzhou, Liu Yao, and General Yuan Shu, but also Yuan Shao of Hebei, Liu Biao of Jingzhou, and Cao Cao of Yanzhou were worried and wary of.

It's likely that only Li Jue and Guo Si in Guanzhong, and Liu Zhang in Shu, don't have time to care about this right now.

It's not up to any of you here to leak information.

However, the generals were unaware of these things, and immediately they all became solemn, almost swearing that they would never dare to reveal the slightest secret.

"Gentlemen, there's no need for that. If my father didn't trust you, why would he have told you everything? My previous warning was only because I was worried that you might have been careless and unintentionally revealed it."

After reassuring the generals, Liu Feng got to the point: "The Sun family has always been prestigious in Jiangdong. During Sun Wentai's time, they even improved relations with the powerful clans. However, Sun Bofu was young and impetuous and eager to acquire a territory, which resulted in him offending the Lu family to death."

"The powerful clans of Jiangdong are closely connected. Offending the Lu family is tantamount to offending the four great families. They will inevitably be very resentful of the Sun family's entry into Jiangdong. As for Sun Ce's temperament, as I just mentioned, such an impatient and hasty personality will surely lead to a fierce clash with the local powerful clans."

“My father and I once discussed whether to let him cross the river, so that these gentry would know who is truly easy to talk to.”

At this point, all the generals burst into laughter, including Zhao Yun and Taishi Ci.

Everyone is very clear about the moral character of the aristocratic families.

Don't think that Zhao Yun was really a rigid old man; in fact, he also had his own flexibility.

One thing fully proves that Zhao Yun was not a rigid and inflexible person.

Zhao Yun was from Changshan Commandery, which was then under the jurisdiction of Han Fu. Yuan Shao and Gongsun Zan came together to compete for Ji Province. After Han Fu fell from power, Yuan Shao took advantage of the situation and first took control of Ji Province. He then broke the agreement and refused to share the province equally with Gongsun Zan.

Gongsun Zan was naturally furious and raised an army to attack Yuan Shao.

To be fair, which of these two men, Yuan Shao or Gongsun Zan, was better for the common people?
It was naturally Yuan Shao. Even if Yuan Shao was just pretending, he had to put on an act of loving the people.

So, was Gongsun Zan good to the powerful clans?

This was the greatest insult to Gongsun Zan. Gongsun Zan himself came from a prominent family, but he despised the sons of prominent families the most. He insulted the sons of prominent families, saying that they should be lowly officials. This does not refer to hard labor, but to a job with heavy tasks and no prospects.

Gongsun Zan believed that if a member of a powerful family performed well, he would think it was because of his own ability, and if he performed poorly, it would be because the position he was given was inadequate.

If that's the case, why should I give you a good job?

Since Yuan Shao was better for both commoners and powerful clans, Zhao Yun chose to join Gongsun Zan at this crucial juncture.

This was after Yuan Shao and Gongsun Zan had just fallen out, and the two hadn't even really fought each other yet.

At this time, Yuan Shao had not yet been thoroughly humiliated by Gongsun Zan in front of the entire Ji Province, losing all his confidence. Yet, Zhao Yun still surrendered to Gongsun Zan. Gongsun Zan once asked Zhao Yun, "When everyone in Ji Province submitted to Yuan Shao, why did you abandon Yuan Shao and join me?"
Zhao Yun replied, "Because you love the people."

Gongsun Zan laughed loudly but remained silent.

When Liu Feng recalled this incident, all he wanted to say to Zhao Yun was, "Uncle Zilong, you lied."

Whenever Liu Feng thought about this, he would use this incident to embarrass Uncle Zilong if he ever argued with his father again.

At this moment, although Liu Feng did not say it explicitly, all the generals present understood what he meant.

Taishi Ci pondered for a moment and said, "If that's the case, then we really need to prepare for crossing the river as soon as possible, especially for Jiangdu. Our army should take it back as soon as possible. Otherwise, leaving it in Yuan Shu's hands will not only be dangerous for Guangling City, but also cause trouble for our future operations."

Zhao Yun nodded repeatedly in agreement, saying, "What Ziyi said is indeed the right thing to do."

Xu Sheng, Pan Zhang, Zhou Tai, and Jiang Qin all echoed this sentiment.

"What you all have in mind is exactly what I have been thinking."

Liu Feng nodded in agreement with everyone's opinion, but then suddenly changed the subject: "However, it's possible that we might get Jiangdu City for free."

"Freebie?"

The generals all wondered if their young lord was being delusional, thinking that such an important town could be taken for free.

Don't be fooled by the fact that Dantu and Jiangdu are small and poorly defended. That's because in the past, during times of peace, these places were not important and it was easy for people to travel between them.

Now that it's wartime, the value of these cities has naturally changed.

As long as Yuan Shu can control Jiangdu, he can stop the Xuzhou army from marching south to Yangzhou and launch a counterattack on Guangling at any time. Why would he be willing to give it up?
Liu Feng's guess was based on evidence.

First, he knew that the decimated Qiao Rui tribe had already withdrawn, leaving only Sun Ce's tribe in Jiangdu.

Secondly, Sun Ce's base was in Jiangdong, and the Little Conqueror had great ambitions. He was not willing to serve as a doorman for Yuan Shu, and was instead squeezed into the small city of Jiangdu.

Third, although Sun Ce was arrogant, he was a tactical master. He could not have failed to see that defending Jiangdu while attacking Dantu would simultaneously provoke both the Xuzhou and Yangzhou armies.

For Sun Ce, the best solution was to return Jiangdu to the Xuzhou army in exchange for their cessation of interference. Even if it was only temporary, Sun Ce was confident he could establish a foothold in Jiangdong.

Liu Feng laid out these analyses, so he advocated not rushing to attack Jiangdu and waiting to see what would happen.

If Sun Ce's army in Jiangdu hasn't withdrawn within half a month, Liu Feng won't be polite and will wipe them out to teach Sun Ce a lesson.

After listening, Zhao Yun, Taishi Ci, and the others also felt that there was no problem.

Since time was on the side of the Xuzhou army, and they were busy with the summer harvest and wanted to make up for the harvest lost due to the Battle of Guangling, the Xuzhou army directly mobilized 5,000 of its weaker troops to go out of the city to help the people harvest grain.

Before the operation, Liu Feng repeatedly emphasized the importance of military discipline, stating that anyone who dared to commit arson, murder, or looting, regardless of their previous merits, would be executed without mercy.

Liu Feng didn't know if he could be like the army of later generations, never committing any offenses against the people, treating the people as his own parents, and truly achieving a close bond between the army and the people.

But at least he didn't want his army to continue looting and abusing innocent civilians.

With the addition of these new forces, the summer harvest near Guangling is progressing rapidly, and the lost progress is being made up.

Going to attack Jiangdu now would indeed delay things.

Afterwards, everyone enthusiastically began to deduce the meaning of Liu Feng's simple silk map.

One moment he was speculating how he would attack and develop if he were Sun Ce, and the next he was speculating how he would counterattack and restrict Sun Ce if he were Liu Yaofang.

Upon seeing this, Liu Feng immediately became interested: "Uncle Zilong, teacher, Wenxiang, if you are really interested, why don't you split into two groups, one playing Sun Ce and the other playing Liu Yao, and do some deductions? I can also provide you with troop intelligence."

Everyone's interest was immediately piqued, so Liu Feng told them his estimated strength of the two armies.

Liu Feng remembered that in the Jiangdong region, the Niuzhu defense line had 13,000 to 15,000 elite troops. Xue Li had 15,000 men, and Zuo Rong had 18,000, but their combat effectiveness was much lower and could not compare with the elite troops of the Niuzhu defense line.

The powerful alliance of Danyang and Wu Commandery supported Liu Yao. After the Niuzhu defense line was breached, they gathered nearly 20,000 men for Liu Yao. However, these 20,000 men were far inferior to the previous ones in terms of both quality and equipment.

In this life, Sun Ce broke through from Dantu and successfully crossed the river, but he did not cause any damage to Liu Yao's core military force, the Niuzhu Legion. Moreover, it was obvious that he would be targeted by the troops of the powerful clans of Jiangdong.

Therefore, the situation is definitely more difficult than in history.

Therefore, Liu Feng and his Xuzhou army will have more time to consider and deliberate, and it is best to wait and see for the time being.

Liu Feng's wishful thinking was that Sun Ce could first help him clean up the Jiangdong gentry, and then he could lead the scholars from Xu and Yu to reap the rewards. In this way, it would be much easier to reconcile the factional problems within Liu Bei's group.

Because with a larger territory, it becomes easier to break up the clans that were united.

For example, if you only have Yangzhou among the Jiangdong gentry, then no matter how you transfer them, they will still be one family.

But if you split the Jiangdong gentry into three pieces, sending one piece to Xuzhou and another to Yuzhou, the difficulty for them to band together will increase exponentially.

Those who serve in the US and those who suffer in the US will definitely not be able to see eye to eye.

Those who live far away or are local are definitely out of contact.

The difference between being an official and not being one is like heaven and earth.

Not to mention that there was also Bo Fu who first purged the stubborn warriors in Jiangdong for the Liu family.

While everyone was chatting enthusiastically, Taishi Ci, playing the role of Sun Ce's army, surprisingly left only 500 men to guard Dantu, while concentrating his main force of 3,500 men to continue the raid on Quyang. He didn't seek any contribution, but only wanted to trap Liu Yao in the city, and he actually succeeded.

As a result, the Jiangdong army was immediately thrown into disarray. The Niuzhu Army, Xue Li's Army, and Zuo Rong's Army defended against each other, and none of them dared to rush back to provide reinforcements, fearing that they would be ambushed by the other two armies.

Liu Yao's army's slow and sluggish return to reinforce gave Sun Ce's army a lot of time. When reinforcements arrived from the Yangtze River, they not only secured the defense of Dantu, but also had enough troops to conquer Qu'a and capture Liu Yao alive.

Once Liu Yao is captured, the Jiangdong coalition will completely lose its leader and fall apart.

Xue Li and Zuo Rong at least declared independence, but the Niu Zhu Army was also facing considerable internal problems. Generals such as Fan Neng, Zhang Ying, and Yu Mi all wanted to seize leadership of the Niu Zhu Army. Although it did not reach the point of infighting, there was already an underlying antagonism between them, making it impossible for them to participate in the war.

After deducing this situation, Taishi Ci, Zhao Yun, and other generals were somewhat surprised and uncertain.

If this were the case, Sun Ce would likely be able to occupy Wu Commandery and Danyang Commandery in a short period of time, connecting them with Yuan Shu's two commanderies north of the Yangtze River. This would directly force Sun Ce to threaten Guangling and Xuzhou from two sides.

At that point, it wouldn't be Xuzhou going to Jiangdong to reap the rewards, but Yuan Shu and Sun Ce having to turn around and head north to Guangling again to fight a second Battle of Guangling.

However, Liu Feng was not in a hurry at all, which puzzled Zhao Yun, Taishi Ci and others.

Could it be that the young master already has a solution?
Liu Feng then smiled and explained, "Uncle Zilong, teacher, your deductions need to incorporate the personalities and perspectives of Sun Ce and Liu Yao. Only then should we take the results seriously. If the decisions you made are similar to those of Sun Ce in reality, then your insistence on defending Qu'a seems too unrealistic."

"How could Liu Yao dare to defend Qu'a? Even if he had the guts, his advisors and close associates would absolutely not agree. These people are very powerful, each one a prominent family and scholar. So unless Sun Ce attacks Qu'a first and directly blocks Liu Yao, Liu Yao may have already left Qu'a and headed west."

Liu Feng's analysis is based on evidence. Historically, Liu Yao was extremely afraid of death, and even with Sun Ce's reckless and light-armed advance, he never managed to intercept Liu Yao even once.

Not only was the opponent fast, but he also ran early. On Xu Shao's advice, his positioning was exquisite, repeatedly causing Sun Ce to miss his target and successfully advancing into Yuzhang. He can be called the best positioning expert in Jiangdong.

Zhao Yun and Taishi Ci still looked somewhat disbelieving, while Xu Sheng and Pan Zhang remained calm, having already blindly trusted Liu Feng to the point of blind obedience.

(End of this chapter)