My father Liu Xuande

Chapter 116 Three Wise Men Offer Advice
Three days later, Liu Feng, who was in the camp training Xu Sheng's troops and preparing to welcome new recruits, suddenly received a summons from Liu Bei.

Therefore, Liu Feng hurriedly returned to the prefectural capital.

Upon meeting Liu Bei, they found that the other party was watching and there was nothing urgent.

Upon seeing his son arrive, Liu Bei was overjoyed and waved to Liu Feng.

"Feng'er, come sit down next to your father."

Liu Feng had no objection and obediently sat down.

"Father, what urgent matter do you have with me?"

Upon hearing this, Liu Bei feigned displeasure: "What, if your father misses you, do I have to have something to ask you to come and see me?"

Liu Feng could only beg for mercy and apologize before Liu Bei let him go.

Getting back to the main topic, Liu Bei pointed to several scrolls of silk on the table and frowned, saying, "Recently, Yuanlong, Changwen, and Zijing have all submitted memorials on various matters, but their directions are completely opposite. I am hesitant and cannot make a decision, so I would like to hear your opinion."

With Liu Bei's permission, Liu Feng opened the silk scroll and began to read it.

The first silk letter was written by Chen Yuanlong, who hoped to strengthen Langya's military forces and expand northward.

At present, Qingzhou is without a ruler, and various warlords have risen up. Yuan Tan occupies Pingyuan and Jinan, Tian Kai occupies Le'an and Qi, Kong Rong has Beihai, and Cai Zhen guards Donglai. All of them are incompetent.

Moreover, Qingzhou has the advantages of salt and iron, and it is also the northern barrier of Xuzhou. There is no need to occupy all of Qingzhou. We only need to take over the area south of the Yellow River to occupy most of Qingzhou, and we also have the natural barrier of the Yellow River.

According to Chen Yuanlong's estimation, they could first join forces with Kong Rong to take Donglai, and then use Donglai and Langya as a base to attack Tian Kai. At the very least, they could share Le'an and Qi with Yuan Tan. In this way, Kong Rong could keep Beihai, while Yuan Tan's territory in Qingzhou would be divided in two by the Yellow River and would be difficult to maintain.

Chen Deng's judgment was correct. Historically, Yuan Shao's rule in Qingzhou was not truly effective. He only controlled the plains west of the Yellow River. The other counties and kingdoms were nominally subordinate to Yuan Shao, but powerful local lords rose up and each occupied their own territory.

Often, the officials Yuan Shao sent to Qingzhou dared not cross the river to take up their posts, because the powerful local magnates in Qingzhou had repeatedly killed the officials sent by Yuan Shao, and Yuan Shao was powerless to do anything about them.

Ultimately, this directly led to the situation where, at the start of the Battle of Guandu, Zang Ba conquered three counties in a month, pushing the battle line directly to the Yellow River, while Yuan Tan, despite having a numerical advantage, was unable to break through the stalemate for a long time.

Chen Deng's meaning was clear: to take advantage of Kong Rong being an ally and to first acquire land in Qingzhou.

Tian Kai is beyond saving, and there's no way to save him; to save him would mean breaking the alliance with Yuan Shao.

Since that's the case, why not share it with Yuan Shao? In that case, Kong Rong's Beihai Kingdom will be surrounded by Xuzhou, and they might even become one in the future.

With such a large buffer zone as Qingzhou in the north, the pressure on Langya County will be greatly reduced.

It must be said that Chen Deng's strategy was very insightful and highly feasible.

Moreover, Liu Feng believed that Yuan Shao was also willing to accept this outcome.

In this way, with the Qingzhou battlefield over, Yuan Shao can concentrate all his efforts on dealing with Gongsun Zan.

Liu Feng remembered very clearly that Yuan Shao's record against Gongsun Zan this year was quite poor.

With the help of Xianyu Fu and others, they first inflicted a great defeat on Gongsun Zan, but they were unable to take down Gongsun Zan's stronghold for a long time. When they finally ran out of supplies and retreated, they were pursued and defeated by Gongsun Zan, losing all their supplies.

Yuan Shao suffered heavy losses this time, losing more than half of his most capable Ju Yi army, all of whom were battle-hardened elites.

Even worse, all the supplies were lost, including not only food, but also a large amount of armor, weapons, and wagons.

These losses pained Yuan Shao more than the losses of veteran soldiers, since the troops belonged to Ju Yi himself, while the equipment and armor were something he, Yuan Shao, had painstakingly accumulated.

After the battle, Yuan Shao hesitated again and even wanted to negotiate peace with Gongsun Zan. It can only be said that Yuan Shao really had a bad feeling about Gongsun Zan.

In history, Gongsun Zan was ultimately defeated not because Yuan Shao could actually defeat him, but because he himself was so insane as to seek death.

Even at the beginning of Jian'an 4 (the year 198 AD), when Gongsun Zan committed suicide by fire, Yuan Shao still wanted to negotiate peace with Gongsun Zan rather than completely annihilate him, which shows the formidable reputation of the White Horse Cavalry.

However, Liu Feng felt that Yuan Shao's peace offer this year, apart from the effect of the White Horse Incident, still had some element of delaying tactics. He had suffered a major defeat, and if Gongsun Zan were to seize the opportunity to launch a counterattack, things would get very interesting.

After all, most of Ji Province originally supported Gongsun Zan; Yuan Shao was the one who came later.

Yuan Shao could not have imagined that Gongsun Zan was already out of strength to retaliate, and his attempt to seek peace only exposed his underlying insecurity.

After putting down Chen Deng's silk scroll, Liu Feng picked up another one.

This letter advises Liu Bei to seize the opportunity to expand westward, and to first occupy the two commanderies of Lu and Pei.

Liu Feng smiled; this must have been Chen Changwen's doing.

In his silk scroll, Chen Changwen carefully analyzed the situation and concluded that whether it was heading north to Qingzhou or south to Guangling, it would bring powerful enemies like Yuan Shao and Yuan Shu to Xuzhou, which was not advisable.

Only Yuzhou, though currently under the jurisdiction of Governor Guo Gong, is fragmented and divided.

Leaving aside Yingchuan County, which was severely damaged by repeated raids by Dong Zhuo's army, Runan was the Yuan family's base of operations. Even if troops were sent to occupy it, it would be difficult to control. Liang State was occupied by Guo Gong, who had more than 10,000 troops and the title of governor, so it was not feasible to attack him for the time being.

As for the State of Chen, it has King Liu Chong and Chancellor Luo Jun. These two men are brave and resourceful, and they have won the hearts of the people of Chen. They can be allied with but cannot be plotted against.

Only the states of Lu and Pei are located near Xuzhou, practically one entity, and there is no prime minister serving in either state. If Liu Bei were to send troops at this time, he could easily succeed.

In addition, Chen Qun subtly reminded him that Chen Deng's father, Chen Gui, had served as the Chancellor of Pei State, and that this had happened just a few years prior.

At that time, Tao Qian's power reached its peak, spanning three prefectures and eight counties, and he recommended Chen Gui to serve as the Chancellor of Pei State.

During his time in Pei State, Chen Gui was known for his integrity and ability to suppress bandits, earning him praise from the local gentry and people and leaving behind a legacy of influence and connections.

Later, Tao Qian's power was defeated, and Yuan Shu continued to expand after occupying Lujiang. Chen Gui had no soldiers or food, so he had to resign and flee back to his hometown of Xiapi.

If Liu Bei were to recommend Chen Gui for the position of Chancellor of Pei, it would be twice as effective with half the effort.

At the same time, Chen Qun also admitted that his family had a good reputation in Yuzhou, and if Liu Bei did not reject him, he was willing to serve Liu Bei and bring peace to the region.

Chen Qun's suggestion was rather conservative, but as he said, it had a high chance of success, and most importantly, it wouldn't offend anyone.

Because neither the State of Lu nor the State of Pei has a prime minister now, nor is it anyone's former territory.

If Liu Bei were to send troops to take it, he would not be met with strong resistance and would not offend any powerful enemies, which would be a benefit he could gain for free.

Moreover, the states of Lu and Pei are right next to Xuzhou, so they can be integrated with Xuzhou and also shield the flanks of Donghai and Xiapi.

The State of Lu, in particular, occupies a very important strategic position.

Although the State of Lu was not large, with only six counties, it was located at a strategic transportation hub, connecting three provinces and eight prefectures in all directions, including Donghai, Pengcheng, Taishan, Rencheng, Dongping, Jibei, Shanyang, and Pei.

With only one elite force stationed in Lu, they could threaten five counties in Yanzhou at any time, putting them at a significant disadvantage.

Without eliminating the State of Lu, Yanzhou will have no strategic initiative over Xuzhou.

Confucius said, "Climb Mount Dongshan and you will find Lu small; climb Mount Tai and you will find the world small." This statement is quite correct from a strategic perspective.

By controlling the State of Lu, one could gain control over half of the Central Plains.

The last thing Liu Feng saw was Lu Su's suggestion on silk.

Compared to the previous two, Lu Su's silk manuscript has a more ambitious purpose, and he elaborates on his opinions from a grand strategic perspective.

If Chen Deng's strategy was to advance north, and Chen Qun's opinion was to expand westward, then Lu Su's opinion was to launch a southern expedition.

Lu Su pointed out that now is the best time to go south. All the surrounding warlords are bogged down in their own affairs and cannot spare any resources. Guangling currently has no governor, and Yuan Sui, who is acting as the prefect, is not a strong-willed person. Although he is talented and honest in his administration, his biggest weakness is that he is too humble and does not know much about military affairs.

Such an acting governor would be the best choice during times of peace and would also gain the support of the counties.

But now it is a chaotic world, and what the people of Guangling lack most is a sense of security.

Your Excellency has just swept through Langya with tens of thousands of troops in a matter of days, shaking Shandong. The people of Guangling will surely admire and eagerly await your army's southward advance, making Guangling easily attainable. If we delay, and Yuan Shu becomes available, he will undoubtedly send a large army to contest Guangling with you. At that time, war will rage, and lives will be lost. Even if we capture Guangling, what use will it be if we only gain a piece of empty land?
Lu Su went on to describe the man's strategic thinking in detail.

After capturing Guangling, he sent envoys to befriend Liu Yao, then contacted Liu Biao, and launched a three-pronged attack, first eliminating Yuan Shu and then taking all of the Huai and Si regions.

If Liu Yao surrenders at that time, that would be best; if he does not surrender, then we will annex him.

In this way, you can control the two provinces of Xu and Yang, retreat to preserve your territory and declare yourself king, or advance to contend for the Central Plains and compete for the world.

This means that Yuan Shao occupied Hebei in the north, Cao Cao occupied Siyan in the west, while I held Xuyang.

In this way, a tripartite balance can be formed, and a tripartite balance can be achieved.

Yuan and Cao faced each other directly, with no way to retreat, and a decisive battle was inevitable.

If I retain control of Jiangdong, then Yuan Shao and Cao Cao can only compete to win them over, but cannot join forces.

Lu Su's judgment was very accurate. If Liu Bei did not have Jiangdong as a way out, Yuan Shao and Cao Cao might even have eliminated Liu Bei first and then decided the outcome, which would have been better than being ambushed halfway through the battle.

This explains why the eldest and second eldest brothers competed so fiercely that the third eldest died first.

However, if Liu Bei had a way out, even if Yuan Shao wanted to get Cao Cao involved to eliminate Liu Bei first, Cao Cao, unless he was a fool, would definitely refuse.

Even if Liu Bei is driven out of Xuzhou, does that mean Yuan Shao can still chase him all the way to Jiangdong and destroy him?
With Liu Bei of Jiangdong behind him, could Cao Cao still fight Yuan Shao to the death?
This illustrates the importance of Jiangdong to Xuzhou. With Jiangdong, Xuzhou is secure; without Jiangdong, Xuzhou is in danger.

After reading the three silk scrolls, Liu Feng put them all back in their original places.

Liu Bei sat quietly to the side, watching his proud son.

The more I looked at him, the more pronounced his smile became.

Nothing makes a father happier than having finally built a successful career after turning fifty, and having someone to carry on the family line.

"Feng'er, have you finished reading it? What are your thoughts? Please feel free to speak."

"Son has finished reading it."

Liu Feng nodded to Liu Bei, then fell silent again.

He was pondering what choice to make.

In the past, he would have actually been more inclined to agree with Lu Su's suggestion to go south to Jiangdong.

After all, compared to the big players in the Central Plains, Jiangdong was just a fishpond at this time.

Sun Ce, Yuan Shu's top general, is now unable to defeat even Liu Yao's coalition of powerful clans and is unable to cross the Yangtze River. He is trapped in Liyang, north of the river, recovering from his injuries.

Although Liu Bei's southward march would mean facing Yuan Shu directly, the situation has now changed.

The Xuzhou army no longer had any historical worries, and was able to seize Guangling first, which was equivalent to gaining a large, well-preserved prefecture that had never experienced war.

Most importantly, even if Liu Bei didn't go south, Yuan Shu would still go north next year. There was almost no possibility of coexistence between Yuan Shu and Liu Bei; it was a life-or-death relationship.

Liu Bei can now march south directly and take over Guangling without bloodshed, gaining an extra year's worth of grain and taxes. This is equivalent to a huge financial boost, with benefits far exceeding those from the Langya campaign. According to Liu Feng's calculations, as long as they can defeat Yuan Shu next year and protect Guangling from major damage, by the year after, the Xuzhou army will be able to launch a proactive attack on Yuan Shu's Huainan.

Logically speaking, Liu Feng should have chosen Lu Su's plan without hesitation.

But he was still somewhat hesitant.

Because Chen Qun and Chen Deng's proposals also have considerable merit.

Chen Deng's advance into Qingzhou, intended as a bulwark for Langya, offered Liu Feng the opportunity to seize the natural barrier of the Yellow River, win over Kong Rong, and gain access to Qingzhou's salt and iron resources. The numerous benefits made Liu Feng very tempted.

As for the states of Lu and Pei mentioned by Chen Qun, they were indeed as tempting as ripe fruit, easily plucked without much effort. Moreover, once they were all taken, especially Lu, these two states could immediately be integrated with Xu Province, threatening the heartland of Yan Province and preventing Cao Cao from ever daring to look down on Xu Province again.

However, these are all advantages, but there are also disadvantages.

Heading north to Qingzhou would inevitably disrupt Yuan Shao's strategic plan to acquire the four provinces of Hebei, arousing Yuan Shao's suspicion and hostility, and needlessly relieving Cao Cao of some of the pressure.

Expanding westward into Lu and Pei would severely provoke Yuan Shu and Cao Cao, because Yuan Shu had long regarded Yu Province as his own territory, but was temporarily unable to take it over, while the location of Lu was too threatening to the heart of Yan Province, so how could Cao Cao sit idly by?

Liu Bei had long understood these pros and cons. In his view, all these strategies were good, but unfortunately, he could only choose one of them.

He has already abandoned Chen Qun's strategy of westward integration and has not yet made a decision on whether to advance northward or southward.

Seeing Liu Feng deep in thought, Liu Bei waited patiently, afraid of interrupting his train of thought. Only after Liu Feng slowly exhaled a breath of stale air did Liu Bei ask curiously, "What are you thinking about, my son?"

Liu Feng gave Liu Bei a slightly sly smile, which softened Liu Bei's heart. Feng'er was still just a child after all; it was all his fault as a father for being incompetent and putting so much pressure on him too early.

"Father, I'm thinking that the plans of the three wise men are very tempting and have great feasibility. I wonder if there is a plan that can fully take advantage of them?"

Liu Bei burst into laughter, thinking that his son was indeed quite greedy.

After laughing, Liu Bei shook his head and sighed, "My son's ambition is commendable, but unfortunately, human greed is like a snake trying to swallow an elephant. These three strategies are good, but my Xuzhou is not strong enough to acquire them all."

"Not really."

Liu Feng revealed a mysterious smile.

Upon seeing this smile, Liu Bei trembled and asked incredulously, "Feng'er, do you have a way?"

Liu Feng, of course, dared not continue to keep Liu Bei in suspense, and went straight to the point, saying, "I have a method that we can try."

Liu Feng spread out the three pieces of silk belonging to Chen Deng and others and began to analyze them for Liu Bei.

"The opinions of the three wise men are all beneficial to Xuzhou. However, even so, they can be ranked according to their difficulty and the benefits. Among them, Mr. Zijing's strategy is the most difficult, but the benefits are also the greatest. As long as Xuzhou can pacify Jiangdong and control Xuzhou and Yangzhou, we can advance and retreat freely and contend for the world."

Liu Bei nodded slowly. He knew this too, which was why he was wavering between Chen Deng and Lu Su, unable to make a decision. Otherwise, he would have already sided with Chen Deng and marched north to Qingzhou.

Liu Bei was a man who used people based on nepotism.

During the fierce battle of Hanzhong in history, Liu Bei was completely out of his mind. Even when Cao Cao's powerful bows were right in front of him, he refused to retreat.

At the time, a group of powerful figures were extremely anxious, but no amount of persuasion could dissuade them. In the end, it was only through Fazheng's intervention that they were able to persuade him to back down. Was it only Fazheng's suggestion to retreat that showed genuine concern for Liu Bei?
Obviously not. It was only because Fa Zheng spoke that Liu Bei, in his moment of madness, was able to listen.

"The southward route is the most difficult but also the most rewarding, and if it is successful, it can lay the foundation for conquering the world."

"Mr. Changwen's strategy is the least difficult and yields the least benefits, but it has the greatest potential for future troubles. Right now, Cao Cao is entangled with Lü Bu, and Yuan Shu is besieged by Liu Yao and Liu Biao, so naturally they can't do anything about Xuzhou. But once they each free up their hands, the situation will be different. Cao Cao's Yanzhou route may be negotiable, but Yuan Shu will definitely attack."

After some thought, Liu Bei realized that, just as Liu Feng had said, Cao Cao might be willing to make peace, but Yuan Shu would inevitably have to fight.

Liu Feng continued his analysis: "In that case, Mr. Changwen's strategy and Mr. Zijing's strategy are not fundamentally contradictory, except for the addition of Cao Yanzhou. If Father can stabilize Cao Yanzhou, then both strategies can be implemented simultaneously."

Liu Bei was taken aback at first, then suddenly realized the crux of the matter.

Heading south would mean fighting Yuan Shu, and expanding westward would also mean fighting Yuan Shu. It's the same Yuan Shu they're fighting, and it's impossible for two Yuan Shus to appear out of nowhere.

Given this, as long as the additional variable—Cao Cao—can be kept in check, then the strategies of advancing south and expanding westward from Xuzhou can indeed be pursued simultaneously.

Liu Bei's interest was immediately piqued. Could it really be as Feng'er said, that all three strategies could be executed simultaneously?
This scene was too wonderful; Liu Bei had never even dared to imagine it before.

Liu Bei suppressed his excitement and asked, "What about Yuanlong's plan?"

Liu Feng shook his head, as if pouring ice water on Liu Bei, calming him down.

"Mr. Yuanlong's strategy has moderate benefits and moderate potential risks. If we enter Qingzhou, we will inevitably offend Yuan Shao. At this time, Yuan Shao still has Uncle Gongsun in his inner circle, so he will most likely be tolerant. But once Yuan Shao unifies the north, he will show his fangs to us."

(End of this chapter)